Western Conference Depth Chart Review
We did the East, so let's do the West too! I know, it's been a month, but not much has happened transaction-wise.
As I did last time, I'm trying to identify the teams that are deep, but also the teams where their depth makes sense. As we'll see in the three teams I think are the worst out West, sometimes depth doesn't make sense.
For the purposes of this exercise, the parameters are the same as last time. Everyone listed has a full contract – no two-way deals or Exhibit 10 contracts – as per Spotrac.
These Teams Will Look Radically Different By the End of the Season
All three of these teams have good players, and you could paint an optimistic picture of each of them if you really tried, especially Memphis. But their depth makes no sense, and additional moves are needed. Memphis, in fact, is going to have to do something soon – they have 17 guaranteed contracts and can enter the season with only 15. Theoretically, it should be easy to cut Taj Gibson and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, but there must be a reason they haven't done it yet.
The player that makes me scratch my head the most is D'Angelo Russell. You don't sign him unless you're trying to contend, but if Memphis really sees itself as a contender, then why did they salary dump Santi Aldama this summer? And if they don't see themselves as contenders, then why did they sign Russell to block Walter Clayton Jr.'s and Scotty Pippen Jr.'s development?
Sacramento seems determined to trade Damontas Sabonis for some reason, even though he's their one good player. I suppose having zero good players is technically a strategy. And the Clippers? Who knows what they'll do. Lawrence Frank's suspension will last until after the trade deadline, so it might be nothing. But I can't imagine this team playing with much urgency, and even if they do, Brook Lopez's bones might turn to dust this season, and his backup – Yanic Konan Niederhäuser – lasted only 424 minutes last season before needing season-ending surgery. This team feels like a lock to finish 30th in rebounding.
These Teams Are Almost Certainly Kidding Themselves
Golden State will start the season with a best-case scenario of having only 12 of their 14 players. Of the nine holdover players who spent most/all of last season with the team, Brandin Podziemski played all 82 games, and Gary Payton II – while frequently injured in the past – played 73. No one else played 70 games, and four – Stephen Curry, De'Anthony Melton, Kristaps Porziņģis, and Al Horford – played fewer than 50. Porziņģis only managed 32. There may be some nights when the only way this team clears the eight-player minimum is with two-way players.
Phoenix played over its head last season, has no power forward, and added a cancerous player in Miles Bridges. This team is what every superstar fears – that they signed up long-term with a team that has no chance and no path forward. The only player who would even have the chance of fetching a first-round pick at the trade deadline (other than Devin Booker, who isn't going anywhere) is Dillon Brooks, and without him, their try-hard approach falls apart. If I liked Booker, I would feel bad for him.
New Orleans' season will come down to whether they are able to successfully bury Jordan Poole on the bench. I am dubious they will, but if they do, there is an interesting team here. And while they look like a bad team defensively, that's why they hired Jamahl Mosley. I would like to put them higher than 10th, but I need to see proof of concept first.
Intriguing But Big Questions Remain
I'm not as down on Portland as people seem to be. I don't think the owner's cheapness is going to be a day-to-day thing for the players. I think the media is more focused on that than the players are. I think Jrue Holiday-Damian Lillard and Ja Morant-Scoot Henderson make perfect sense as starting and bench guard combos. But after a lot of upheaval last season, they must endure more this season, from Morant to Shaedon Sharpe's injury and especially to a new head coach. It's a lot. And apparently they don't feel that Deni Avdija's back injury has healed sufficiently (I'll be honest, I didn't even know he had a back injury until I saw that story this week), which can't be good news for a guy whose main source of offense is running full speed into other players.
In Dallas, the big question is does Kyrie Irving still have it? I find it hard to envision a world where Irving isn't lightning quick and amazing with the ball in his hands, but I suppose death comes for us all, and he missed all of last season. They also have a new coach – one who is new to the NBA – and have imported a few new players who may play significant roles in Santi Aldama, Zaccharie Risacher, and draft pick Morez Johnson Jr. Also, with the new front office likely to still think long-term, if things don't go right in the first half of the season, they may cut bait on the season. It is for that reason that I have them behind Utah, but I have them ahead of Portland because I think Irving-Cooper Flagg is a better duo than any duo the Trailblazers can muster.
I think Utah has a much more clear focus than these other two teams, and plenty of top shelf talent to help execute on that new focus on winning. But the big question for me is Jusuf Nurkić. His defense has been borderline comical the past few seasons, but it's also been a couple of seasons since he was in a winning environment. Can he lock in, as the kids say? Whether he elevates his play or not, I wonder if he'll be in Utah's closing lineup. If not, a Keyonte George-Darryn Peterson-Ace Bailey-Lauri Markkanen-Jaren Jackson Jr. closing lineup sounds intriguing as hell. I think Utah has a real chance to push Denver back into the play-in game, but it's probably a little rich to predict Bailey and Peterson to be that impactful so soon. Just know I am here for it!
Not Deep Enough
For all the signings the Lakers made in the first few hours of free agency, you have to really squint to get to a credible eight-player rotation. I don't think Jake LaRavia is an NBA starter-level player, and while Quentin Grimes is good enough to be a starter, you'd like him to be your fifth-best starter. He's not that on this team.
Denver has plenty of top shelf talent, but their credible rotation tops out at seven players, and I say that as one of the world's foremost Marvin Bagley III defenders. And to boot, those seven guys are often injured and/or lacking in in-game focus.
I have flip flopped these two teams a couple times, but I lean toward the Lakers being better in the regular season because it will be more important to Luka Dončić to pile up wins than it will be to Nikola Jokić.
Third and Fourth by Default?
Don't get me wrong, I love this Minnesota team. Like really love them. I think this is a team that will be out to prove a lot of critics wrong. But with their depth just a little stronger than LA and Denver, they are kind of ranked this high by default. I just think the West is really soft – the softest it's been since 2023, and perhaps even before then.
Since the Wolves signed Jonathan Kuminga – a signing I absolutely love by the way – much of the focus has been on whether he will sit in crunch time in favor of Ayo Dosunmu. But I think the wild idea would be sitting Gobert and Minnesota running a poor person's lineup of death with LaMelo Ball-Anthony Edwards-Jaden McDaniels-Kuminga-Dosunmu. That would be a lot of fun. I think Terrence Shannon Jr. and Joan Beringer are ready for larger roles this season, and the Wolves seem convinced that Donte DiVencenzo will return this season, which would be huge.
In Houston, getting Fred VanVleet back and signing a rejuvenated Marcus Smart is going to do wonders for their offensive creation and organization, and lessens the need for Ime Udoka to shoehorn Reed Sheppard into a point guard role. The team now has the luxury of letting Sheppard be an off-ball sniper, which is also a role they're hoping Bogdan Bogdanović can fill. If so, and he can stay healthy (he's played 54 or fewer games in three of the past four seasons), the Houston bench gets a lot longer. That would be really great, because they need to play Kevin Durant less this season. I don't trust Ime Udoka to do that though, so I can't move them past Minnesota.
An Embarrassment of Riches
I have flip flopped these teams in my mind a bunch of times as well, but I have Oklahoma City first because I just don't think they'll miss Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, or Aaron Wiggins at all. I think Nikola Topić, Thomas Sorber, and Aday Mara are all capable of stepping right into the rotation and play quality, meaningful minutes. I think the only question OKC has in its rotation is whether Ajay Mitchell should start over Cason Wallace, and I just don't think it matters. Mitchell is going to start and close in plenty of games, and that OKC's top nine guys are pretty locked in to their roles, and all are awesome in them, and all but Alex Caruso are capable of logging heavy minutes.
San Antonio doesn't have the same luxury. They have the real push and pull at the top of their rotation of when Dylan Harper ascends, and whose playing time he takes. They now also have the age vs. experience question with Julian Champagnie and Tobias Harris. San Antonio has the cache to bring Harris off the bench, but he's going to get significant minutes. Whose minutes is an interesting question, especially in closing lineups, because in the playoffs Harper often took Champagnie's fourth-quarter minutes. This season, if San Antonio wants to go three guards plus Devin Vassell and Victor Wembanyama, well that means Harris – who you just recruited to help them win it all – is on the bench. And while I'm excited to see if Carter Bryant matures, is he now stuck behind Harris (and Harrison Barnes?) on the depth chart?
It is because of these questions and a desire to not wear Wemby out in the regular season that I give the nod for the No. 1 seed to OKC. But make no mistake, these two teams are head and shoulders better than the rest of the conference.
Power Moving East?
The star power of the Celtics – which is generally hugely important in the playoffs – has been severely compromised as we enter this upcoming season. But looking at these depth charts, the only three teams I think are capable of beating the Celtics in a seven-game series are Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Minnesota. Houston and Denver would be fun series, but I don't see Houston having enough answers and I don't see Denver having the depth.
This is a pivotal season for the East-West debate. The conferences have split the last eight NBA Finals, and the last six as well. But if the East wins this upcoming season, it'll make three of the last four to the East, with the one West championship having been a seven-game series where the East's best player experienced a catastrophic injury early in Game 7.
One thing that I wonder if we'll hear more about as the season progresses is the notion that other teams in the West are trying to wait out an implosion in OKC and San Antonio. Or, not an implosion per se, but the moment when they need to make their version of the Jaylen Brown trade. If that's the case, then those teams probably were not excited to see OKC wiggle out of the second apron while only trading one, eminently replaceable starter. It may get painful for San Antonio soon – that De'Aaron Fox contract could be particularly thorny – but it's not this season.
The reason I bring it up is because it seems like the other teams besides Minnesota mostly kept their powder dry. Even the Lakers, who acquired eight new players, only acquired one player who has both a contract for three seasons and $20+ million (Walker Kessler). In other words, they can get off the other seven guys in a heartbeat if they find a better opportunity elsewhere. Utah, with their portfolio of picks settled for adding through the draft, bringing back Nurkić, and small trades. Dallas, New Orleans, and Portland were opportunistic but directionless. Denver and Golden State did as close to nothing as humanly possible. The Wolves pushed hard and Houston smartly re-framed their roster, but for the most part, it seems like the West has already conceded. It's a stark contrast to the East, and will be interesting to watch since the new Lottery rules diminish the value of tanking heading into what is not supposed to be a great draft in 2027. But such is the power of OKC and San Antonio!