You Know Sam Hauser Is One of the Best Three-Point Shooters in NBA History, Right? And Other Notes
The other day, I wrote about the options that the fantastic start to the season has afforded the Celtics. In the section titled "duck under the tax," I wrote about how it would likely take multiple trades for the Celtics to actually duck under the luxury tax line. I specifically didn't mention Sam Hauser in that section. It has long been assumed that since the C's drafted Baylor Scheierman, that Hauser's days in Boston were numbered. And if that is his fate on this team, so be it. The C's do have an abundance of wings, and as Brian Robb wrote earlier today, Hauser often felt like "an afterthought" earlier this season. But before you mentally ship off Hauser, aka Slam Hauser, aka Ham Sauser (that's what my son and I call him), I just want you to understand how having him really is, as Drew Carter likes to say, playing with Haus money.
Undrafted out of college and signed to a two-way contract in August of 2021, signing Hauser was one of Brad Stevens' first transactions in charge of basketball operations. Hauser was signed on the same day that the team signed Enes Freedom (then Kanter) and Dennis Schroder. The C's certainly had modest expectations for Hauser at the outset, but also, four days later, they traded Evan Fournier to the Knicks. Hauser didn't play much in the first hal of the 2021-2022 season, but Stevens must have liked what he saw.
Despite playing only 43 minutes over 10 NBA games through January of that 2021-2022 season, the C's converted him from a two-way to a standard contract. For the remainder of the season, Hauser would get a little more run – over 16 games, he played 118 minutes, and hit 15 of the 30 threes he took. He wouldn't really play much in the playoffs – he hit a single shot, a three during garbage time of Game 2 of the NBA Finals in Golden State – but he would immediately start playing more the following season under Joe Mazzulla. I distinctly remember thinking often that season whether the 2022 Finals would have been any different if Ime Udoka had simply trusted Hauser at all (the minutes played in that series look very strange a few years later, but that's a story for another day).
Now in his fifth season in Celtics green, Hauser has now attempted 1,419 three pointers in his career, and has hit 589 of them, good for a .415 percentage. That's, uh, pretty good. How good? Let's examine some of the wonderful context.
In NBA history, there have been 443 players who have shot at least 1,400 three pointers. By three-point percentage, the worst of the group was Charles Barkley, who had a paltry .266 percentage. It's not really fair to judge Barkley on that, I've argued, since the three wasn't thought of the way it is today. I have argued in the pages of ESPN the Magazine (RIP) that given context, Dwyane Wade is the worst three-point shooter of all-time. Overall, Wade ranks sixth worst. It was fifth at the time I wrote the piece, but Giannis Antetokounmpo has sunk beneath him since.
On the happier side of the chart, we see that Steve Kerr stands alone, and probably no one will exceed Hubert Davis's three-point percentage either. But ranking a very elite 11th is one Samuel David Hauser. Let's take a look at the top 20:
One fun anecdote about this top 20 is that there are only two players on it who have played for a single team – Hauser and Stephen Curry. The path of the sharpshooter is often nomad-like in nature (also, shoutout Dana Barros!).
Looking at this more objectively, we can see that Hauser still has a ways to go to cement his status unequivocally. Stephen Curry, Kyle Korver, and Klay Thompson probably have a greater claim to the three-point king crown given how many more threes they attempted. It's why people never shut up about JJ Redick, because he had the same 3PT% as Hauser, but with more than three times the attempts. That's hard to do! But, I mean, if you've watched Hauser's shot, would you really project a lot of drop off in his shot? It's so pure. Thompson is an instructive data point. Even last season in his 12th season, he hit 39.1% of his threes. That has dropped to 35.1% this season, but he's also had to play the whole season on a Dallas team with no real point guard (no, Ryan Nembhard doesn't count as one just yet).
We can look at it one more way. If you instead filter things by total three pointers made, Hauser is one of just 18 players who has hit at least 500 career threes, with a 3PT% of at least .410. The list is the first 17 players from the above chart, with Steve Novak added in. He would have made the first list, but he only attempted 1,337 threes in his career.
Either way, I implore you to not take Hauser's shooting for granted. Yes, Jordan Walsh, Josh Minott, Hugo González, and Baylor Scheierman are hitting threes at a great percentage this season, but all three are shooting a very low volume. The four of them combined have only taken 18 more three's this season than Hauser has by himself. None of the four have hit more than four three's in a single game. Hauser has already hit five or more three's in a single game four times, including last night's game. The odds are very good that if any one of the four shot at the same volume as Hauser that their percentages would dip quickly and sharply.
Hauser is also not a one-trick pony. He's a solid rebounder, and is particularly adept at crashing in from the corners to get offensive rebounds. He also is responsible with the ball. Since his rookie season, there are 64 players who have played at least 5,000 minutes and have a turnover percentage – an estimate of turnovers committed per 100 plays – of 10% or less. Of those 64 players, Hauser ranks second best, at 5.8%. Only Gary Trent Jr. has turned the ball over less frequently, though Trent's really embarrassing turnover in the playoffs last season basically ended Milwaukee's season. Hauser's never done anything like that. In fact, if you zoom out and just look at any NBA season, Hauser ranks third overall all-time, with Novak again popping up to rank first.
He's become such a valuable player because he works at the things you don't see. He's worked at his footwork, his cuts, the little ways you can adjust the way you shoot the ball depending on the situation. Every season, he'll hit a few threes where he catches the ball high and shoots it high in order to beat a low shot clock or a closing defender. It's kind of insane, to be honest. He has also worked really hard on his defensive quickness, sliding his feet and staying in front of opposing ballhandlers. Oftentimes, other teams try to pick on Hauser, and it has regularly gone poorly for them over the past two-plus seasons. His improvement defensively was a big part of the C's winning Banner 18, as they no longer had to yank him off the floor or hide him on defense.
The Celtics get all of this for $10 million per season. I understand the thinking that Scheierman/González/Minott/Walsh are making the minimum, and thus Hauser is overpaid. I am here to tell you that he isn't, and his combination of shooting and ball security is incredibly rare. Trading him in a salary dump just to save the new ownership group a few million on their tax bill would make the C's demonstrably worse, and I hope they avoid making that mistake, because I enjoy watching greatness, and Sam Hauser is one of the greatest three-point shooters in NBA history.
Payton Pritchard Is Also Really Responsible with the Ball
These past two games against Indiana really highlighted just how good Payton Pritchard has been with the ball, as it was just the fourth and fifth time Pritchard has had three turnovers in a game. He had back-to-back three turnover games in the baseball series earlier this season vs. Orlando, and then on Nov. 18th in Brooklyn, and then these past two games. He's had zero, one, or two turnovers in his other 25 games, and while he had six turnovers total in these past two games, he only had six turnovers total in his prior eight games. In those eight games, he also had 49 assists. That's a ridiculous assist to turnover ratio, and included in those eight games were wins vs. the Knicks and Lakers, as well as two road wins in Toronto. These last two games have upped Pritchard's turnover percentage, but it's still pretty elite, and I will be watching it with interest as we get closer to the season's midpoint.
Is It Wemby's Time Already? Or Is Oklahoma City Just Overrated?
I don't know, but figuring out the answer to this is going to be the most important narrative of the rest of this NBA season. Well, at least beyond whether Jayson Tatum returns, and how he looks if/when he does. 😄
My answer? I think it's more the latter. Don't let OKC's hot start against a bunch of bad teams make you forget that they needed seven games to beat a depleted Nuggets team, and that they were trailing during Game 7 of the NBA Finals before finally outlasting a Tyrese Haliburton-less Pacers team. I still think that the Thunder are susceptible to losing on any night when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is not playing at an MVP level. In other words, I don't really believe in the greatness of Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams. Certainly against San Antonio, Holmgren is drawing dead against both Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet, which puts the onus on SGA to be on his game. And unfortunately for him, the Spurs can throw De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and Devin Vassell at him defensively, which is more capable/quick defenders than just about any other team has at their disposal.
In other words, I don't think these three games are a fluke. I think the Thunder are really hoping they get to avoid San Antonio in the playoffs.
A Thing I Don't Understand
Speaking of Oklahoma City, I keep seeing a lot of analysts say that obviously Utah wants to avoid giving their 2026 first-round draft pick to Oklahoma City, and since it's top-eight protected, they are going to eventually tank again in order to keep it. I don't understand this. Oklahoma City may end up with four first-round picks next summer, and they have room for approximately zero of them unless they're going to salary dump Isaiah Hartenstein and Lugentz Dort. And they still may not have room even then, as they'll presumably have to take back one or two NBA players in those hypothetical salary dump trades. So there is really not much harm in losing the pick to them, and especially not if they work hard to make sure the pick isn't juicy.
Rather than tank, if I was running Utah, I would just be trying to be good. Obviously their ultimate ceiling is limited in this Western Conference, but there's no reason they can't get to seventh or eighth place in the West. And from there, who knows? Houston is relying a lot on old man Kevin Durant. The Lakers are relying a lot on old man LeBron James. The Nuggets can't ever stay healthy. The T'Wolves melt down at the drop of a hat. And it's not like Utah sucks!
Keyonte George has taken a real step forward this season, and Lauri Markkanen remains really good. In them, they have two guys who are capable of winning ballgames. George did so last night. Utah didn't even give Markkanen the ball down the stretch against Detroit, George handled the ball, and made enough quality plays to win the game, including hitting the game-winning shot with two seconds left. The duo may be joined by Ace Bailey, who has had a decent rookie season thus far, and has star potential. Kyle Filipowski, Isaiah Collier, and Brice Sensabaugh are decent-to-good role players. Walter Clayton Jr. and Taylor Hendricks have shown flashes, and Jusuf Nurkić, Svi Mykhailiuk, Kevin Love, and Kyle Anderson are responsible veterans.
Again, there's absolutely no reason that Utah can't get to seventh or eighth in the West, and if they can sneak into the playoffs from there, then the pick they forfeit to OKC will be in the mid-to-late teens. And in the meantime, they would have built themselves a solid winning foundation. Building from that foundation, next summer they'll clear $31.5 million in salary (Nurkić, Georges Niang, and Love come off the books, and they can make it $35+ million if they choose to not bring back Mykhailiuk, as his contract is non-guaranteed). Next season, they should also work Walker Kessler back into the mix. There's no reason why Utah has to suck this season or next. When they hold Markkanen out of games, they're choosing to suck. I just don't understand that, because at a certain point, there's no recovering from all that intentional losing.