Why This Loss Hurts
There isn't a ton of analysis necessary for why the Celtics lost their game against the LA Lakers on Thursday. They took the game for granted, didn't respect their opponent, and their opponent made them pay. I do want to talk about why this loss hurts, because the Eastern Conference is at a tipping point right now.
Before we talk about that though, I want to point out one interesting thing. Jaylen Brown wanted no point of tonight's game, and you could tell the coaching staff felt the same way, because they benched him not once, but twice. The first time, with nine minutes left in the third quarter, he was benched alongside Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The second time, with 4:06 remaining in the fourth, he was benched all by his lonesome. Jaylen Brown never gets benched. Never. I can't even recall the last time he came out of a competitive game absent foul or injury trouble – and both of those things are incredible rare for him. But he didn't play a lick of defense tonight, and his sloppy handling of the ball in the first quarter set the Lakers off on their confident path. I don't want to kill Jaylen too much. It happens. Over 82 games, every team has let downs, but I thought the double benching was notable.
Getting back to the point, the reason this loss hurts is because the Celtics have worked hard to earn a rare opportunity. Since the format for the playoffs changed in the 2015-2016 season, the gap between the first and second seeds in the Eastern Conference has been between one and 2.5 games in seven of the eight seasons. The one time it wasn't, in 2017-2018, the gap was four games.
The Celtics entered tonight with a five-game lead over second-place Milwaukee. The Bucks have lost two in a row and three of their past four, and are trying to break in a new coach on the fly. Philly has lost four in a row, and now may be without Joel Embiid for awhile, because he flopped to the floor on Tuesday night trying to buy a call, and when he didn't get it Jonathan Kuminga landed on top of him and made his sore knee truly injured. The Knicks and Cavs have been surging, winning nine of their past 10, but unless they're suddenly two of the greatest teams of all time, odds are they will level off soon – especially since Julius Randle is now out for awhile. Even if they don't, the C's have already won the season series against both teams, so there is more of a measure of comfort if those teams keep creeping up the standings.
The C's, meanwhile, are in the midst of their longest homestand of the season. They have been playing far too comfortable for most of it, and are on the brink of frittering away this easy part of their schedule. Their next seven games are vs. Memphis, vs. Atlanta, vs. Washington, at Miami, at Brooklyn, vs. Brooklyn, and at Chicago. If they stay focused, rattling off seven straight wins is very much on the table. And if they can do that, they could have a six- to eight-game cushion over the rest of the East. If they can get to that level, and maintain roughly that bar in February and March, then they can rest a lot when April comes around and cruise to the one seed.
Six of the team's final seven games are home games. Those could be games where the starters play a quarter or a half and then sit, staying sharp but fresh for the playoffs. Or they could keep fucking around in games like they did tonight, like they have done this entire homestand, and let a hot team get close enough to push them for that one seed.
The good news is that it's entirely in this team's hands, and on most nights this season, they have taken care of business. So I don't want to overreact. But tonight was a missed opportunity for sure.
How'd I Do?
At the end of December, I took a crack at predicting the All-Star teams. Here's what I said at the time:
With reserves having been announced earlier on Thursday, I can now see how well I did! In the East, I correctly predicted four of five starters (I had Jalen Brunson over Tyrese Haliburton), and 11 of 12 players overall. My only mistake was I put in Derrick White over Julius Randle. White cost himself his spot with his terrible January, and the Knicks have been on a tear. And yet, D White still may end up in Indy. Randle figures to be out for the All-Star Game, and now Joel Embiid might be as well. Commissioner Adam Silver could push Bam Adebayo into the starting lineup and give his reserve spot to White. We'll see.
In the West, I also got four of five starters correct, and I probably would have gotten all five if I had realized that Anthony Edwards counted as a guard in this process and not as a forward. I don't really think he's a guard, but I don't get to decide. I only got nine of 12 players right out West. I had De'Aaron Fox, Jamal Murray, and Rudy Gobert in, and those spots went instead to Devin Booker, Paul George, and Karl-Anthony Towns. Booker and George both had red-hot January's, and in general play louder than Fox and Murray, so that's not too surprising, but it really is stunning that Murray has never been an All-Star. If there ends up being an injury in the West, I hope Murray gets the nod.
Overall, correctly predicting 20 of the 24 players more than a month before the rosters were announced feels like a pretty good piece of work. I'll take it. It should be a great All-Star Game. I'm thrilled to see the return of East vs. West. The appeal of watching LeBron and Giannis pick teams wore off pretty quickly, and then I spent the whole game just trying to remember who was on which team.