Who Can Alter the Balance of the 2024-2025 NBA Season?
I have a few pieces queued up in my mind that I want to work on this summer:
- Deeper dive on the NBA Finals
- Why Jaylen Brown's MVP was fitting because the C's needed him to elevate his game to Jayson Tatum's level and he did
- Why Jaylen Brown's MVP was the product of the media being desperate to create any kind of juicy storyline because the Celtics made this season boring by calmly delivering on expectations (both things can be true)
- Where Jayson Tatum ranks all-time now (hypothesis: at least as high as Paul Pierce, and Pierce was on the NBA 75 at 75 team), and where this championship has given him the opportunity to ascend to
- What We Learned Definitively in the Playoffs (first and foremost, that Bam Adebayo is not a No. 1 player and can't win anything on his own – good luck with that max extension Miami is reportedly giving him!)
But the offseason is already fully ramping up, and as you might expect, I have thoughts.
I think there are a lot of story lines that are going to be splashy, but far fewer that will be meaningful once July ends and we look forward to next season. So I'm going to talk about the players and teams I think can alter the balance of the NBA this offseason, and no I do not think Paul George is one of them. Afterward, I have a quick statistical note about Joel Embiid and why the Sixers are also not one of them, so read all the way through for that.
Seismic Shifts Possible
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
The Nuggets were notoriously thin last season, and heavily relied on their core players. KCP was one of those core players. He has a player option that it is widely reported he will turn down. If Denver is unable to re-sign him, it will leave them even thinner, and will leave them in need of a player of his skill set, because none of the young guys they kept in mothballs really fits his profile. There are only two guys on the free agent market I think are decent comps for KCP – Malik Beasley and De'Anthony Melton. Beasley isn't anywhere near the defensive player that KCP is, and Melton is both three inches shorter and missed a lot of last season due to injury. I already find it hard to take the Nuggets seriously as a title contender given their lack of quality depth, and if they lose KCP, they may permanently fall behind Oklahoma City, Minnesota, and Dallas in the pecking order.
Knicks, Baby!
I already viewed the Knicks as the biggest threat to the Celtics, and that was before yesterday's trade to acquire Malik Bridges and tonight's report that they will re-sign OG Anunoby. I think the Knicks are already better than the rest of the non-Boston teams in the East, and they have started to creates a little bit of distance between them and presumptive third seed Milwaukee. If they are able to bring back free agent Isaiah Hartenstein, then that will only increase said gap. This could be the start of the first actual Celtics-Knicks rivalry. I had absolutely no trouble building up an animosity for Jalen Brunson last year, as he grifts for fouls so shamelessly it makes even Jimmy Butler and James Harden blush, so this would be a lot of fun. I think the C's would have the edge until Brunson can prove to be a capable defender, but it'd be a great matchup.
We'll see if the Knicks do indeed bring back Hartenstein, and have the stomach to keep Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson as well. I think they need all of those guys to have a shot at beating Boston, but the rumor is that the Knicks may look to trade Randle and/or Robinson. I think that'd be a mistake.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The OKC-Dallas series was very, very tight, and there are definitely scenarios where the Thunder win that series. Their trade for Alex Caruso will help the vibes, and he amplifies a lot of what they already do well, and Josh Giddey had close to a nightmare season. But Caruso doesn't help their rebounding problem. In fact, he makes it worse. While some have characterized Josh Giddey's rebounding as "empty calories," the fact is Giddey has never averaged fewer than 6.4 rebounds per game over a full season, and Caruso has never averaged more than 3.8. In addition, while Giddey is just 21 years old, 6'8", and well equipped to bang in the paint, Caruso is just 6'5", about to enter his age-30 season, and has only suited up for 70+ games once in his seven NBA seasons.
The Thunder still need help on the glass. The rumor is that they want a bench guy more than a starting capable player, which says to me they still don't get it. That says to me they still want to trust Lu Dort at the end of games. Lu Dort is rapidly becoming a poor man's Marcus Smart in the sense that he is the heartbeat of his team, but it is an open question as to whether he will make the correct decision with the game in the balance. He committed some very, very stupid fouls in the postseason, and more or less dares refs to not call fouls on him. I would be looking to upgrade his spot, and have a hard time fully buying in on OKC until they do. Either way, they need way more help rebounding. They have the assets and money to do so, if they feel so inclined.
Trae Young
Young gets a lot of crap for his lack of defense, and for always needing the ball. I think it's a little hypocritical, and a tactic used by the Atlanta brass to deflect from their crappy player acquisition and development. The Hawks simply have not built a good team around him in the way that New York has around Brunson and Dallas has around Luka Dončić, two very similar players. If I was Young, I would either be demanding a trade to New Orleans or San Antoinio, or I would be demanding that Atlanta trade Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela, two players who to me are not nearly good enough on offense to justify their crappy defense. Young is, they aren't, and I think it's time to stop blaming Trae Young for Atlanta's subpar play the last couple of seasons.
Houston Is Trying to Be a Problem
Ime Udoka wants to win now, and he is going to be even more motivated to do so now that his former team just won it all without him. The Rockets are reportedly trying to trade Alperen Sengun for Kevin Durant. Phoenix's owner says they won't trade Durant, but he's a clown, and he says lots of things. I don't trust a word he says, and in fact, he should be saying nothing – he's employing a GM to say things publicly about his team's strategy.
In a vacuum, I am on the low side on Sengun – I think he's slow, doesn't play defense, and that his passing "genius" is in large part a reflection of teams not caring about Houston. When he played a locked-in Celtics team, his fancy passes did no good whatsoever. In a vacuum, I also think you try to get Durant, especially if you have a deep team like Houston and can afford to ratchet Duran't minutes back closer to 30 per game. But I don't know that I love the fit for Durant with Jalen Green and the other wing players Houston has, like Amen Thompson. I will readily admit that a trade like that, or a similarly splashy trade, has the opportunity to upset the balance of power in the West's swirling, chaotic middle. Can the Rockets make a trade that won't be shortsighted? I have my popcorn ready.
The Reset Button
Teams are always tempted to hit the reset button by dumping a bad contract and adding by subtracting, but it's usually easier said than done. This season does actually present an opportunity to do so though, in the form of Ben Simmons. Simmons is entering the final season of his contract, and it will pay him $40 million and change. Only 23 players in the NBA will make more than him. He's likely played his last NBA game, but if you want to pair a couple of draft picks with a bad contract, the Brooklyn Nets may be willing to trade you Simmons. That would allow said team to waive him, because his deal will expire, and move on with their lives.
Will such an opportunity present itself? How many picks would the Wizards give up to free of Jordan Poole? Will the Hornets want to trade LaMelo Ball if he gets hurt again? Maybe the Nuggets finally tire of Michael Porter Jr.? There are a lot of possibilities. This may not affect the pursuit of next season's NBA championship, but it could still create a seismic shift.
Mild Shifts
Are Charlotte, Utah, and San Antonio Interested in Getting into the Play-In?
I respect what each of these teams is doing and/or their braintrust, and the opportunity seems ripe for each team to make some moves. They are all malleable, so there isn't much reason to speculate on what those moves may be, but I'm intrigued by each team.
Are Orlando and Indiana Interested in Cementing Top Four Status?
As I said, I think Boston and New York are pretty solid bets at one and two in the East. But I think three through six and beyond is wide open. Milwaukee is penciled in there due to inertia, but they have lost in the first round in two straight years, so my deference to them is nearing an end. Orlando and Indiana played tough, hard-nosed basketball last season, and have ample opportunity to definitively move past Milwaukee in the East's pecking order. Indiana already re-signed Pascal Siakam, but they still have plenty of moving parts, as does Orlando. Neither team is known for spending big money though, so I am curious to see if they are truly willing to invest in putting a championship-caliber roster around their All-Star/All-NBA talents in Tyrese Halibuton and Paolo Banchero.
Are New Orleans and Memphis Interested in Waking Up from their "Sleeping Giant" Status?
Both teams are always labeled as big trouble lurking in the shadows. To date, neither team has figured out the correct mix of talent necessary to unlock a higher ceiling. Memphis came close a couple of years back, but their roster looks significantly different now. We'll see. I'm not encouraged by reports that Memphis may look to trade Marcus Smart. That would be foolish, in my opinion, but you know how I feel about Marcus.
Will the Warriors Push to Stay Title Relevant, or Are They Settling Into the Golden Years (Pun Intended) of Their Championship Core?
There is a school of thought that the Warriors have to do everything they can to stay relevant while Steph Curry is still amazing. I don't disagree, but it gets harder to thread the needle every season, and you never know how Curry would react to the Warriors jettisoning Draymond Green and/or Klay Thompson in favor of younger, healthier, less volatile, more-in-their-prime players. I think it's probably over for them, but I am mildly intrigued anyway. Certainly much more intrigued than I am by the Lakers, as I think their championship window has definitively closed.
Jimmy Butler
Speaking of people I think it's over for, I will never truly count out Jimmy Butler until he retires, but it's hard to see him being a championship-caliber player again. And yet, I am intrigued to see where he is traded/exiled to if Pat Riley truly is fed up with him.
Why I'm (Still) Not Worried About the Sixers
You may have noticed that I didn't mention the Sixers anywhere above, even though they have cleared out maximum salary cap room to pursue star-level players. There are a couple of smaller reasons, and one big reason. The first of the two smaller reasons is that there just aren't that many quality free agents available, especially if the breaking news on OG Anunoby re-signing with the Knicks is true, and I have no reason to believe it isn't. The second is that Tyrese Maxey is not a capable on-ball defender, and given his slight stature, may never be one. But the biggest reason is that the Phialdelphia 76ers are still employing Joel Embiid.
Joel Embiid has started 59 games in his NBA playoff career. And yet he has never reached the Conference Finals. I wanted to see how rare that is, so I did some research. Since the NBA/ABA merger in the '70's, 190 players have started 55 or more playoff games. 160 of those players have played in the NBA Finals. Of the 30 remaining players, 25 of them have played in at least one Conference Finals. That leaves just five players who have started 55+ playoff games without reaching the Conference Finals: Joel Embiid, Blake Griffin, Tobias Harris, Wesley Matthews, and Zach Randolph. Harris is sort of tied to both Griffin and Embiid. Griffin could get partial credit here, as he was on last year's Celtics team that played in the Conference Finals, and he was active for those games, he just didn't see the court. Randolph's Grit 'N' Grind teams just didn't have enough talent, and it's hard to draw any conclusions from Matthews since he's played for eight different teams overall, and six different teams in the playoffs.
Drawing conclusions for Embiid isn't nearly as complex. He simply hasn't gotten it done, and often has shrunk when the spotlight is brightest. In his last chance to get to the Conference Finals, he no-showed. He shot 5-for-18, and pulled down just eight rebounds, with one assist and four turnovers, while Jayson Tatum dropped 51 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists on him. This season, he was rarely fully healthy, and was clearly injured in the playoffs. And yet, he's going to play in what will be a very grueling Summer Olympics in a few weeks. He's barely ever been able to make it through a full NBA season. We're expected to believe that he's going to tack on the Olympics beforehand and then make it through the 2024-2025 season fully healthy? At age 30? I don't like those odds.
Joel Embiid wants to be taken seriously as a winning player, but there is just absolutely no evidence to support that he is one, and furthermore he's going to have to mesh with an entirely new team this season. Maybe the Sixers will make some legendary moves and I'll eat my words in a few weeks, but until further notice, I don't think the Sixers are a top four team in the East, and presently I don't really see a path for them to become one.