What Would You Do?
At the beginning of the season, it was assumed that the Celtics would not be competing for a championship this season. Even optimistic folk such as myself set the bar for success at top six in the East. After all, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet were not walking back through that door. One third of a season later, the only player of the four the team has missed is Kornet, as it looks like the expiration date on the latter three has passed. Holiday has missed 17 of Portland's 29 games, Porzingis has missed 17 of Atlanta's 30 games, and Horford has missed 17 of Golden State's 30 games. Meanwhile, the C's have enjoyed both good play and good health from basically everyone aside from Jayson Tatum, and that good health has been a big factor in their success. It should go without saying at this point, but I'll say it anyway – if the three wise men were still on this team, the Celtics would be faring much worse.
That brings us back to the present team. The C's are rolling, and their next six games are against sub-.500 teams, which may even provide the opportunity to solidify themselves as a top-three or four team in the East. They have already helped stretch out the jumble of East teams in just the past week. And if that is the team's new reality, it's worth wondering what the strategy should be for the remainder of this season. There are a few options:
- Damn the torpedoes, go hard for a championship
- Add on the periphery without getting back into apron territory
- Nothing
- Duck under the luxury tax while still staying competitive
- Swoop way under the luxury tax and tank back out of the play-in
The luxury that this first part of the season has afforded the team is that all five of these options are on the table. Let's talk about them!
Damn the Torpedoes
Essentially, this would be doing whatever it takes to get better right now. Trading draft picks and/or young assets to consolidate the current 10/11-player rotation into a more solidified eight or nine. They could target Ivica Zubac, Michael Porter Jr., Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen, or any other super desirable player that pops up. I'm not sure exactly how that would all even work, but they could try. They have a $22 million trade exception to use, and again, I'm unsure of the mechanics of that, but that's not really the important thing here. The important thing here is determining if you think the team can reach the NBA Finals this season. And there's some logic to the notion that they can.
Right now, the Celtics sit in sole possession of third place in the East. They are 18-8 (.692 winning percentage) since starting 0-3, and 15-6 (.714) since starting 3-5. Neither winning percentage is quite the pace that the C's had the past two seasons, but they net out to a 56-58 win pace over a full season. Last season, that would have made them the three seed in the East and the two seed in the West. Two seasons ago, it would have made them the two seed in the East and potentially the one seed in the West (Oklahoma City and Denver each won 57 that season). To find a team with a lower win total that won the NBA Finals, you need only go back one season further to the 2022-2023 Denver Nuggets, who won just 53 games.
The C's have piled up these wins in a frankly real manner. They have played the most games against the other above-.500 teams thus far, and the three statistical indicators I look at all see the C's as a top-10 team in the NBA this season:
It is actually a pretty stark top three, and then the rest of the East behind them, and the C's have already beaten both of the other two top teams in Detroit and New York. Behind those three, Miami and Orlando look good on paper. The C's have beaten Orlando twice, and ran Miami off the court in the fourth quarter last week. Cleveland, Philly, and Toronto do not stack up well in comparison, and the C's have beaten them all as well – twice each in the case of Cleveland and Toronto.
So if you think what we've seen from this Celtics team is real and sustainable, why not them? Would you honestly be scared of the Pistons or Knicks as is? Would you honestly be scared of the Pistons or Knicks if the C's add a backup center who can play defense, or if Jayson Tatum comes back and looks like 75% of himself? And if the answer is "no," you're not scared, then ... maybe it's time to buy once again, right?
Add on the Periphery
Of course, if they're already a championship-caliber team, then you don't necessarily need to go out and try to get Markkanen, but just add a guy here or there. Convert that Chris Boucher spot into a guy who can be situationally relevant, at the very least. Keon Ellis, maybe? Nick Richards? How married are the Pacers to keeping Jay Huff? Can you get Khris Middleton for free? What about Marvin Bagley Jr.? Robert Williams Jr. seems to be desirable once again, but maybe he can be had for a reasonable price. Kevon Looney isn't even playing for New Orleans now that Derik Queen has established himself there. Would a second rounder pry him away?
On the one hand, the C's have had trouble with this kind of acquisition. Guys like Torrey Craig and Mike Muscala looked like they would be useful before ultimately failing to stick in the way Joe Mazzulla wanted them to. On the other hand, there is a clear need right now for a defensive-minded big. Luka Garza got a lot of buzz for picking up nine offensive rebounds the other night in Toronto, but the flip side of that is that he only grabbed one defensive rebound in 26 minutes of action. That is a, uh, suboptimal performance from a center. So maybe a trade for someone for that role would work out better this time?
Nothing
Just let it ride. This has been an exceedingly fun team to watch, why do we have to do anything? The pieces on this team fit pretty well. Three ball handlers, two centers, and a mountain of wings, some of whom can fill in in the ball handler and center roles. The team is paying the luxury tax, but that's just money, and they are outside of the basketball penalties associated with being in apron territory. And the team still may get Tatum back, which would be the icing on the cake.
There is of course the risk of losing Anfernee Simons for nothing in free agency if you do nothing, but there's also a chance you could retain him for a lower price in the offseason.
Duck Under the Tax
This is where I thought they'd be all season, and we still may see them do it. Back in May, I assumed the way they'd get there would be trading Derrick White. But Brad Stevens is a wizard, and he got the C's out of apron territory without compromising the team's ability to compete. Of course, they still could trade White – he's the only member of the rotation over 30 years old – but in Anfernee Simons, they have someone with an almost identical salary. And Simons may be a more attractive trade chip in that he's an expiring salary and he's just in his age-26 season, as opposed to 31 in White's case.
Per Spotrac, the Celtics are currently $12,086,489 over the luxury tax line. It is hard to save that much money on any traditional two-team trade, because ... well, I don't know exactly, but there's some kind of rule about the money having to come close to matching up. I have run through trade possibility permutations with just about every single team, and the most I find is saving $8 million in any one trade, with one lone exception. Trading Simons to the Brooklyn Nets straight up for Terance Mann saves the team $12.2 million ($12.6 if you trade D White). That one trade would allow the C's to duck under the luxury tax. Otherwise, the C's need either multiple trades or a fancy three-team trade like the one that they pulled off to send Porzingis to Atlanta in order to save more than $12 million.
If they go this latter route of needing multiple trades, I did find 19 trades that technically work. Some are lopsided in the C's benefit, which I wouldn't think would be possible, and some don't get the C's enough, and still some don't make sense in terms of where each team is competitively. I pulled a lot of these together a month or so ago, and a lot has changed since then. But the one that works that I think makes a lot of sense for both teams is the following:
- Detroit Pistons get: Anfernee Simons
- Boston Celtics get: Jaden Ivey, Ron Holland II, & Isaac Jones
This trade saves the C's $7 million, and gives them two players who will be restricted free agents in the offseason (Bobi Klintman also works in place of Jones). Ivey is a tantalizing talent but unproven and is either snakebitten or fragile, depending on your viewpoint. Holland will help your defense. Jones is tall. I'd be thrilled to get this kind of return for Simons, and Detroit may be tempted to do so, because Ivey has not really found his footing since returning to the lineup – he's only playing 15 minutes per game, which is about half his career average. If that continues, the Pistons may be tempted to make a consolidation trade. They could make this one without giving up any draft picks (or no more than one). And in Simons, Detroit would get a proven secondary ballhandler and another big shot maker to go with Cade Cunningham and Duncan Robinson.
In any case, the C's would still need to save $5 million after this trade to get under this trade.
Swoop Under the Tax
Tanking out of the playoff by trading a lot of guys is the only option that I don't think is even achievable. The C's are currently seven games ahead of 11th place Milwaukee, and the Bucks may fade even further as they wait for Giannis Antetokounmpo to return to play. I just don't see it. But in theory, they could try! They could trade Simons and White, for instance. That'd really swoop them under the luxury tax. It'd be a weird sort of achievement to do so at this point, given where they are in the standings.
So, what would you do? No matter the answer for Brad Stevens and Co., you can bet that the C's now have the unique opportunity to hold the rest of the league hostage once again, especially if they are buyers.