What to Watch for in the Final Month
We are officially less than one month from the end of the regular season, which will be Sunday, April 13th. As you may have heard, the Celtics don't have a lot of important games left on the schedule. They have just two games assured of being against above .500 teams – March 31st in Memphis, and April 8th in New York against the Knicks. Sacramento is right at .500, and they should get good fights from several of the other teams, but a lot of the glamour is gone.
Having said that, there is still plenty to watch for in this final month. Here's what I'm most interested to see down the stretch.
Atlanta or Orlando?
In all likelihood, the Celtics are going to play either Atlanta or Orlando in the first round. It's hard to clock who might come out ahead in that matchup. Both teams have been confounding all season. Both were in the East's top six for a decent portion of the season, but it's been awhile since either was close. Neither team will be at full strength, as the Jalen's Johnson and Suggs are incredibly important to their respective teams. One thing I was definitely right about though is Orlando's lack of passing. Here's what I wrote in my season predictions piece back in October:
7th - Orlando: As I've thought more about this team, my opinion has changed on them quite a bit. A lot of the hope for this team is going to come down to whether Anthony Black can be an NBA point guard. That is, if he's given the chance. If I was a Magic fan, I would sure hope he is. Because otherwise, this team is a case study in whether passing matters. Last season, the Magic ranked 27th in the NBA in assists. And from that team they lost Joe Ingles and Markelle Fultz, who ranked third and fifth on the team in assists. The replacement for them appears to be Black.
Black has been given a chance. His minutes per game have increased from 16.9 to 23.8 this season, and his assists per game from 1.3 to 3.1. But it hasn't been anywhere near enough. Orlando ranks dead last in assists per game this season, and dead last in points per game. They get to the free-throw line well (third in FTA), but they don't hit enough of them (.770 FT ranks 24th), and in a 2-7 matchup, they likely won't get the same benefit of the doubt either.
They are, on the other hand, still a bruising defense, something Atlanta is not. Orlando is first in points allowed per game, Atlanta is 27th. Atlanta makes up for it by being fifth in points scored per game. So a winner take all game is going to be impossible to predict. Nevertheless, I'll be watching both teams to see if any trends shake out in the last month. The C's are done with the Hawks, but they have one game left with Orlando (April 9th in Orlando).
Tatum's MVP Run
Is Jayson Tatum going to win MVP? Probably not, barring something completely unforeseen. But he certainly deserves it, and if his comments the other night are any indication, he intends to finish the season strong and put his best foot forward in the race. It's not just that Tatum leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists, it's how much he leads by in each category. He has 1,710 points, 435 more than Jaylen Brown in second place. Just as an example for reference, Al Horford has 442 points for the entire season. His season is essentially the gap between JT and JB. It's not just there. Tatum has 551 rebounds, 211 more than JB in second place, and 370 assists, 89 more than Derrick White in second place. Tatum also ranks second on the team in steals. His 5.9 assists per game are easily a career high, a full assist higher than last year's 4.9.
Tatum is doing all of this while keeping his Usage% in line with prior years. His 31.1% usage this season settles nicely between last year's 30.2 and the 32.1 and 32.7 he had in the prior two seasons. Simply, Tatum is more efficient than ever. No player is miscue free, but I used to question Tatum's decisions all the time. I almost never do these days, and the decisions I do question are usually when he settles for threes over driving into traffic. As long as that's just him saving his body for the playoffs, that's just fine.
Looking league-wide, you can see only four players are averaging more points per game than is Tatum. The only non-center with more rebounds than Tatum (who ranks 15th overall) is Josh Hart. Only five players in the NBA have pulled down more defensive rebounds. All are centers – Nikola Jokić, Karl-Anthony Towns, Domantas Sabonis, Ivica Zuac, and Giannis Antetokounmpo (yes, Giannis is a center). Only 17 players have more assists.
The only player to be in the top 20 with him in all three of these categories is Jokić, who admittedly trumps him in all three. But the Joker's level of defensive intensity is, well, a joke. I believe Tatum is his equal because he not only is willing and able to guard all five positions on the court, he excels at it. Jokić barely guards anybody – certainly not guards – and his primary method of defense is shoving guys and pretending he didn't. His secondary method is lazily sticking his leg out to try to kick passes so he doesn't have to chase guys around screens. Denver's defense ranks 25th, at 116.9 points allowed per game. Boston's ranks third, at 108.2 points allowed per game. If you are led by your best player, Tatum has clearly led his team to a better place than Jokić has defensively.
Media members couldn't care less, and have all but decided to give the MVP to Jokić or Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. They really only see offense as important. But hopefully Tatum keeps excelling, and makes the decision a little more tortured for them. If nothing else, he should be the clear No. 3 on the ballot, and that would give him a) his best showing ever, and b) two top-five MVP finishes. Not a lot of players can say that (as a for instance, Paul Pierce never finished higher than seventh, and this may be the fourth time in his career Tatum does better than that).
Torrey and Neemie
Last postseason, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla gave precisely 11 players minutes when a playoff game was in the balance. Nine of those players are still on the team – JT, JB, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Luke Kornet. The other two last season who saw meaningful minutes were Xavier Tillman Sr. (he'll always have that three pointer!) and Oshae Brissett. Brissett is no longer on the team, and Tillman hasn't played meaningful minutes in a very long time, so the primary candidates this year for that 10th and 11th spot are Neemias Queta and Torrey Craig. Both could be important in keeping Al Horford's minutes low during the early rounds.
Mazzulla doesn't always play Queta against tough opponents, but he has done well when called upon. In the three-point win in Minnesota on Jan. 2nd, he put in eight points and five rebounds, and was a +17 in 21:30. In the big win in New York on Feb. 8th, he put in 11 points and eight rebounds, and was a +12 in 26:21. And in what may have been his best game of the season, on March 2nd, he put up eight points and 10 rebounds, and was a +11 in 16:41 as the primary backup in the Porzingis-less win over Jokić and the Nuggets.
Craig, on the other hand, is a different story. Mazzulla has been reticent to play him at all since the C's signed him. Since becoming active for the team on Feb. 12th vs. San Antonio, Craig has only played in eight of 14 games. He has only played in consecutive games three times, and he has only played 10+ minutes in three of the eight games, none consecutively. He hasn't really had much of a chance to prove or disprove whether he belongs on the team. He got first-quarter minutes against Oklahoma City, which seemed like a good sign. But then he was whistled for the last-second first quarter foul on Isaiah Joe, and even though it wasn't really a foul, Mazzulla lodged him firmly in the doghouse for it. He was taken out right after that play, only to re-emerge in the final 22 seconds for garbage time, and he didn't play in either of the two games since.
Perhaps the C's won't need an 11th man in the playoffs, but it would be sure nice to have confidence in one just in case.
Can Anyone Else Crack the Playoff Rotation?
If Mazzulla won't trust Torrey Craig, does that leave an opportunity for someone else? Baylor Scheierman has been getting some run lately, and I've liked what I've seen. It seems like Jordan Walsh's shot is coming around, but the sample is so small (44 three-pointers attempted on the season) that that could very easily be wishcasting, and his energy is not always a positive, as sometimes he overcommits on the perimeter and gets beaten badly. Drew Peterson is also present, though he's only played in eight games since the calendar turned to 2025.
It's really not a given that these guys get run in this last month. Jaylen Brown needs to play in nine of the final 14 games to hit the 65-game threshold necessary for end-of-season awards, Tatum wants to bolster his MVP campaign, and Payton Pritchard is trying to claw back some of the momentum he had for 6th Man of the Year. Perhaps Derrick White and Jrue Holiday will get more rest down the stretch. Certainly Al Horford should. But it's not a given that their minutes go to any of these three guys. Here's hoping though!
Health
I breathed a deep sigh of relief after the first quarter last night, as Kristaps Porzingis looked much more like the dominant player he has been since January, and nothing like the rusty, sluggish player he was when he came back from his injury in November. I don't know if he was truly sick or if the team found a fun loophole to keep him on ice, but either way, he looked great. I am oddly confident that he is going to be OK. Feel free to remind me of this if he falls apart again, I will take full responsibility!
I am still worried about Jrue Holiday's finger (he hit a lot of shots this weekend, but he was also fiddling with his finger after he hit some of them) and shoulder (he's still wearing the protective t-shirt), and about Jaylen Brown's knees, legs, and now back. On the one hand, JB is a warrior, and I trust him to be there when it matters. On the other hand, he's had a whole bunch of little injuries, and I hope they don't cascade into a bigger injury.
Aside from that, the one real concern is Al Horford running out of gas. For the season, Al is quietly averaging more minutes per game than he did last season. He averaged 26.7 minutes per game in the first half, but has been at 31.1 in the second half, and 33.8 in the five games he's played in March. The team needed him for those minutes, but it's time to ramp him down and keep his tank full for April, May, and June.
Mazzulla has done a tremendous job of managing the need for rest with the need to stay sharp, so I don't have any real concerns per se in that regard, it'll just be interesting to see where he lands with the two seed locked up and the desire to chase regular-season history not there in the way it was down the stretch last season.
Other Playoff Races, Including Big Games
The jockeying for fourth through sixth is all that's left to play watch in the East. Milwaukee is in prime position with respect to the games they've already played versus Detroit (1-0) and Indiana (3-1), but they are about to embark on a very tough road trip. Eleven of Indiana's final 16 games come at home, and while they have two seemingly tough games remaining with Cleveland, they are the third-to-last and last games of the season, and Cleveland may be resting guys. Meanwhile, nine of Milwaukee's final 16 are on the road (counting the home game they're playing right now vs. OKC). Detroit only has 14 games left, with a precise seven and seven home-road split.
The seeds may come down to the final two games of the season, as the Bucks and Pistons square off April 11th in Detroit, and then again on the final day of the season, April 13th, in Milwaukee. Those will be fascinating matchups, because one/both of them may have the chance to tank their way out of the 4-5 matchup and Cleveland side of the bracket.
Over in the West, there are compelling matchup wars for the 2nd through 5th seeds (separated by a single game right now) and six through eight (separated by a game and a half). Golden State and Minnesota have been coming on hard, having won seven and eight consecutive games, respectively, and that race for the six seed is probably the most compelling race left.
Minnesota has the easier remaining schedule, but both teams still have tough games left. Minnesota's April 1st game with Denver is the most compelling matchup they have left. If the T'Wolves win, it will complete a four-game season series sweep of the Nuggets. Golden State has two games left vs. Denver themselves, including Monday night, as well as a game in LA vs. the Lakers on April 3rd that will close out a six-game, cross-country road trip. An underrated big game could be their final game of the season, a home game vs. the Clippers. Golden State has lost all three of their matchups with the Clips so far this season, so Golden State may need the win, as a tie would go to LA.
I would say the "battle" to see if Phoenix can overtake Dallas for the 10 seed is intriguing, but honestly it's just kind of sad. I would love to see Portland rise up and close the 3.5 game gap between them and Dallas, but Portland's schedule is brutal. Their final 14 games include a five-game road trip, and matchups with Memphis, Denver, Boston, Cleveland, New York, Golden State, and the Lakers. If they had not lost five of their past seven games, they might have been in really great position...but they did. Nevertheless, I'll be watching for that glimmer of hope, because that glimmer of hope is more than Portland has had since 2021.