What, Me Worry?
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, I thought I would look at each of the top teams in both conferences through the prism of how much each one worries me as a Celtics fan.
Overall, the C's were big winners at the deadline. Whether it is because teams are being conservative until they get a better handle on the new salary rules, because there wasn't ultimately a big star out there to be acquired, or whether teams aren't confident in their ability to ascend past Boston and other top teams, not much happened at the deadline. We'll go in descending order by record for each conference.
Cleveland: It's hard to know how threatened C's fans should feel by them. Boston's bigs match up fairly well with Cleveland's, especially when they get Xavier Tillman in the fold. Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert have given the team problems in the past, but earlier in the season, when the C's turned up their defensive intensity on them in the fourth quarter, they held the Cavs to 21 and 20 points, respectively. The Cavs are making waves right now, having won 17 of their last 18 games. But even with that incredible run of play, they still trail the C's by 4.5 games. On the other hand, they're not exactly squeaking out these wins. This run has seen one victory by two points, and the rest of them have been by at least seven points. A lot of these teams are getting smashed. So I don't know. I think I'd be more worried if I was remotely a believer in Mitchell's, LeVert's, and Darius Garland's ability to play good defense when it matters.
Milwaukee: I remain unconcerned, and think this team is overrated. And getting Pat Beverley is only going to make things worse. It's cute when he grabs the clipboard in a blowout vs. Charlotte. It won't be when he does it in a close game, and I think there's a good chance Giannis (and/or Thanasis) and Beverley get into some heated arguments.
In a seven-game series, Giannis would definitely win one or two all by himself. But we saw this in 2022 – he can't win all seven games by himself. By Game 7 in that series, he was exhausted.
New York: So, I was wrong about the OG Anunoby trade. Wrong by a mile. My opinion that they wouldn't improve because they needed another ball handler was completely overshadowed by how the trade really locked in their defensive identity, and helped them form like Voltron. Having said that, I am not as bullish on their second trade as everyone else seems to be.
Bojan Bogdanovic is an upgrade over Evan Fournier in the sense that Tom Thibodeau refused to play Fournier, but their profiles are pretty similar – wing players whose primary benefit is shooting. Boganovic is an inch taller and 20 lbs heavier, so he should be better defensively. But he's also three years older. Last season, he missed 23 games, and this season he missed the first 19.
The story is similar with Quentin Grimes and Alec Burks. Thibs loves Burks, he was a big part of that 2021 playoff team. But lest we forget, that team lost in five games to Trae Young and the Hawks. This is Burks' 13th season in the NBA, and he's only played in 22 playoff games, which is only 13 more than Grimes. And Grimes is only in his third season. Burks is shooting better than Grimes this season, but Burks had an eternal green light on a horrible team, whereas Grimes was childishly buried by his coach after he complained once about his playing time. For his career, Burks has a .487 eFG%, and .517 since 2021-22. That was Grimes' rookie season, and his career eFG% is .573. There may be some Veteran Presents that Burks can provide, and again, Thibs is going to be feel more comfortable playing him than Grimes, and that is important, but he's not some world beater.
Having said all of that, if the Knicks get back to full strength, they are one of the two teams that scares me the most in the East. It's just not because of this trade.
Philadelphia: I wasn't worried about them before Joel Embiid got hurt, and I'm not worried about them now. But I want to make one thing very clear. It wasn't Jonathan Kuminga or the media that got Embiid hurt, it was Nick Nurse. Nick Nurse is a lunatic. It was very, very, very clear to everyone watching that Golden State game that Embiid could barely walk and jump, and Nurse ran him back out in the fourth quarter anyway. Here's what he did in that stretch from when he came back in at the 7:45 mark:
- Missed three pointer
- Hit a technical free throw
- Turnover
- Loose ball foul
- Turnover
- Defensive rebound
Does that look like a guy who is playing at full capacity? It was at that point that he made his eighth turnover, and Kuminga fell on his leg.
The next night, after Tyrese Maxey had missed three straight games with an ankle injury, Nurse played Maxey for 41 minutes, because the Sixers had just lost four games and he didn't want to lose another. Maxey rewarded his shortsighted behavior by pouring in 51 points. The Sixers needed every single one, as they won by just three points. Since, Maxey has been complete garbage:
Shooting worse, getting to the line less, turning it over more, and dishing out fewer assists. One of the best things about Maxey is how consistent he usually is. In that 42-game stretch, he was never a minus in more than two consecutive games. In these past four games, he's been a minus in every single one. And Maxey missed a game in that stretch, too.
Is it possible Maxey is just slumping without Embiid? Sure. It's also possible that he's still very hurt, and gamely trying to play through it because his coach is a lunatic.
I did like the Buddy Hield trade though.
Indiana: I was a lot more worried about them before they gave away Hield for free. They'll continue to play the C's tough, but I can't see them beating Boston in a seven-game series. Yes, Aaron Nesmith has hit more threes than Hield, but where Hield can get his shot off in any circumstance, Nesmith still is effective situationally – catch and shoot, mainly. In the playoffs, when things get janky, they'll miss Hield.
Orlando: They're still learning who they are. They hang tough, but hot streak at the beginning of the season seems like a long time ago.
Miami: We'll see how they look in a little bit, but they'll never not worry me. And I think this team is deeper than last season's.
Minnesota: I am confident that the C's would beat them when it matters. It'd be a hell of a series though, and one that I would very much like to watch. I just think that ultimately Anthony Edwards is surrounded by three guys in Karl-Anthony Towns, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert who consistently make questionable choices in crunch time, and it's probably a little too early for Edwards to overcome all of that. He's still very young, and not immune to such choices himself.
LA Clippers: Can the Kawhi playoff effect overcome the Harden playoff effect? If so, they're terrifying. If not, well, Harden always has the ball in his hands.
Denver: They are worrisome, because Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray go together like lamb and tuna fish, but I think over seven games, the C's would beat them. Boston's depth is just better.
Oklahoma City: I like the Gordon Hayward trade, because Lu Dort is a walking foul, and may be completely unplayable in the playoffs. Nevertheless, they worry me, because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is basically unguardable, and if the other players are hitting their shots, they're really, really tough to beat.
Sacramento: The Kings do not worry me. I've watched them let other teams pull victory from the jaws of defeat to worry about them in a crunch time setting, and the C's have blown the doors off them in Sacramento each of the past two years.
Phoenix: They've played better recently, but Bradley Beal reminded everyone last night how bad he is at defense. They don't concern me, though I did like the acquisitions of Royce O'Neale and David Roddy.
New Orleans: They're too up and down to worry me over the course of seven games, but when they're right, they are a little scary.
Dallas: Whether they worry me comes down to their fascination with playing Maxi Kleber. If they really just traded two first-round picks to only play Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington less than 25 minutes each like they did yesterday, then I can't take them seriously. The other reason I can't take them seriously is that Jason Kidd is their coach, and he's a moron.
LA Lakers & Golden State: They have to be respected on the strength of their pedigree, especially because at this juncture, if either makes the NBA Finals, something extraordinary has just happened. I can't see either team's aging stars having the juice to make it through three straight playoff rounds, never mind four.
Rounding this all up, I think the five teams that worry me the most are New York, Miami, Denver, Oklahoma City, and the Clippers in some order, with room for Cleveland to bump out Miami if Miami is really the team that their record says they are this season, and a nod to Minnesota as well.