The Tortoise Won

When I was a kid, hearing the lesson of the tortoise and the hare was always really difficult to wrap my head around. "Obviously the faster animal won, this is just make believe," my little brain reasoned. This was especially true since in the Bugs Bunny version, the tortoise cheats. In truth, my brain hasn't expanded much in size lo these many years later (though my head certainly has), but the lesson is easier to absorb these days. And we got perhaps the most prime example of it in the NBA Finals.

In each game of the electric NBA Finals, the San Antonio Spurs jumped out to quick leads. It was clearly a strategic decision on their part, perhaps in an effort to score a blow out and make the other team break and give up. Certainly, that had worked a couple of times against Minnesota and Oklahoma City, and they were able to turn at least the fourth quarter into cruise control mode, if not outright garbage time. The most glaring example was Game 2 vs. Minnesota, when they built the lead to 24 at halftime and 35 after three. There were just three problems with this strategy in the Finals – the New York Knicks were much healthier than Minnesota and OKC were, and the Knicks are also both supremely stubborn and patient.

That mix of stubborn, patient, and healthy helped the Knicks complete a record 29-point comeback in Game 4, the largest in NBA Finals history (it was perhaps also the best NBA Finals game ever played, though we should probably give it a year and let the recency bias fade before we make such a ironclad declaration). The Spurs' strategy was never so evident. They were completely locked in at the start of these games, and while they certainly weren't mailing it in the longer each game went, their focus and energy certainly drifted. And in Game 5, it became very clear that the Knicks were playing into this mindset.

It's not that the Knicks were intentionally missing shots to give San Antonio a false sense of confidence, but they were certainly choosing making the Spurs work over getting open shots in the early going of Game 5. Victor Wembanyama had three blocks in the first quarter, and two more early in the second. With 10:34 left in the second quarter, he had those five blocks. He wouldn't register another. The Knicks were targeting him early, and challenging him at the rim, in the hopes he would wear down. It worked. He was not only gassed, but the Knicks – and Jalen Brunson in particular – took advantage of his tiredness by starting to throw new looks at him late in the game. And he just was not prepared.

As this is a Celtics-leaning newsletter, you likely expect me to make a Celtics comparison. And I have one for you! This series reminded me a lot of the 2022 NBA Finals. The Spurs are not a perfect comp for the Celtics. The Celtics shot a lot better from three, the Spurs shot a lot better than two. None of the Spurs' three young guns was the facilitator that Jayson Tatum was (seven assists per game in those NBA Finals). None of the Celtics' young guns (counting Marcus Smart) was the rebounder that Wemby was (11.2 rebounds per game). But both trios tired as the series went along.

On the other side, both the Warriors and Knicks were able to stick to their game plan and not deviate. The Knicks of course had not already won three championships the way the Warriors had, but certainly they have been through the playoff fires. A lot of them have done so collectively in the past two-three seasons, and the recent imports had done so individually as well. Karl-Anthony Towns had some epic playoff series' with the Timberwolves. Mikal Bridges was a starter on the Phoenix team that fell two wins shy of a championship in 2021, and Landry Shamet was part of the Kevin Durant toe-on-the-line Brooklyn team that same season. Jordan Clarkson's Utah Jazz battled Brunson in his final year in Dallas, and way back when he was a pup, Clarkson was on the 2018 Cavaliers squad that outlasted rookie Jayson Tatum and the Celtics, only to be unceremoniously swept by the Warriors in the Finals. To say these guys had the playoff battle scars would be an understatement.

And so they just kept on keeping on, moving at that tortoise pace. This stat really sums up the whole series:

Like their theme song, New York just goes. And it was a joy to watch. These Knicks stayed true to themselves, played humbly and didn't excessively foul bait. They were almost the complete antithesis of the Finals display that the Pacers and Thunder put on last season, which was honestly really hard to watch. This series was a complete joy, even with Wemby veering hard into villain territory by series end (an upset, because Stephon Castle seemed like the best villain candidate after his dustups with Deni Avdija in round one).

New York fans are rightfully taking immense joy in this win. I remember what it was like when the Red Sox won in 2004. Knicks fans "only" waited 53 years, as oppose to the 86 Sox fans waited, but really, after 30 or 40 years, the pain is probably similar. You stop believing that good things will happen because you've never seen good things last. But no one should have to wait that long for a sports championship, and the joy of the Knicks fans was what made this such a great run. All of the travelling Knicks fans were so great to see. The Red Sox had that a little bit in 2003 and 2004, but the Knicks alumni? That was on another level. I've never seen anything like that. It's a big deal if the Celtics alums come back for one game. Getting the old Knicks out game after game after game, home and road games alike, and genuinely just chilling with each other and enjoying one another's company? That's unprecedented, and aspirational for every other sports franchise. The kicker was that Charles Oakley got to watch the Knicks clinch, since the game was in San Antonio (he's been banned from Madison Square Garden for awhile because Knicks owner James Dolan is a small man in many, many ways).

Soak it in, Knicks fans. But don't enjoy the feeling of Massholes like myself rooting for you for too long. Next season is war.

The Cherry on the Sundae

While all of the above is definitely true – the joy from this Knicks season was real and palpable – it was definitely aided for me personally by the fact that I called it. From October:

New York will be fresher. It won't be pretty. It'll go the full seven games. But Jalen Brunson with a coach who understands substitution patterns and offensive creativity is going to be like Thanos – opponents are going to need to go for the head. In the end, Brunson will metaphorically be left like Thanos – an axe sticking out of his chest, but victorious nonetheless. Knicks in 7; Jalen Brunson MVP, though not without a vigorous debate about the value of KAT's defense on Durant.

Substitute "Durant" for "Wembanyama" and "7" for "5," and this is basically what happened. No one on the Spurs ever came for Jalen Brunson's head. The Spurs never were able to make him work on defense the way the Knicks made Wemby work. Brunson only picked up one foul in Game 5, and he didn't pick it up until the fourth quarter.

Speaking of Brunson, I had one more prediction, that I made after Game 3:

I think the number we're shooting here is 35+ points. Starting with the second round series vs. Miami in 2023, Brunson has had at least one 35+ point game in nine consecutive playoff series' heading into this one. In five of the nine, he had at least two such games, with his consecutive 39, 47, 40, and 41-point games to close out the 2024 first round series against the Sixers being the incredible pinnacle.

If Brunson had gotten to 35 or more in Game 3, the Knicks probably have a 3-0 lead right now. But the Spurs defenders are bothering him juuuuust enough that he hasn't gone into takeover mode, and in Game 3, his gravity wasn't helpful enough to the Knicks' shooters. For sure, the supporting players need to hit their shots, but sometimes the leaders need to step up and do more.

The Knicks are a great and fun team to watch, and these first three games have been super duper entertaining. They're so good in fact that they survived to win two road games in which their best player shot a combined 19-for-56 (.339 FG%) from the field. But last night made it clear that they can't sustain that over seven games. They need Jalen Brunson to be better. If it's not shooting, then he needs to really be facilitating, like he did with his 14 assists vs. Cleveland in Game 2. The good news? I do fully expect him to be in Takeover Mode in Game 4, and for the Knicks to head back to San Antonio needing to win just one time in three tries to secure their first NBA championship in 53 years.

Brunson would go on to score 36 points in Game 4, and 45 in Game 5.

Doubt me at your own peril, America!!!

Meanwhile, in Brooklyn

The Nets are in big, big, big trouble. They have no All-Star players, no winning pedigree, and short of a shocking trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo, no road map for fixing either in the short term. They've been so bad that the most routine joke is that they're not even the most alluring team in their own building, as the New York Liberty are way more enticing. Certainly, they're on a different planet now than the Knicks. There really may be no recovering from this for them.

They could accept that fate, I suppose. Some people like lovable losers, but given that they've spent the past three seasons tanking, they're not even lovable losers right now. Orrrr....they could think outside the box. The perfect team to move is one whose city is not going to miss them and whose history doesn't include a championship. The Nets won two ABA championships, but that was when they were playing out on Long Island, and it was in the 1970s, and winning those championships didn't stop them from moving to New Jersey. The Nets are this team.

The genius move, the absolute masterstroke would be to move the Nets to Seattle. Bring the Sonics back immediately, Joe Tsai, and you will be a basketball hero, in a way that you will never and can never be in New York. The promise of being second banana (at best) in a very large city may be more sound on paper economically than being the top dog in a much smaller city, but sports don't always work like that. What I do know is that Brooklyn was 22nd in both total attendance and attendance per game this season, so their big market is barely propping them up out of embarrassment. And the fervor of having the Sonics back would buy the team a couple of seasons to put a contender on the court, because Seattle-ites would be thrilled just to have a team back. And with Portland's new owner being christened with the nickname "El Cheapo," Joe Tsai throwing his money around in Seattle could help them irrevocably steal fans from the Trailblazers too, which would be the icing on the cake.

Stop trying to make Brooklyn happen, Joe Tsai. It's never going to happen.