On Kristaps Porzingis and this Celtics Offseason

I've had a few post ideas go up in smoke the past couple of weeks, as I've been too busy to write stuff. To be honest, I should be going to bed early now, since I have a very early morning. But the Celtics appear to be on the verge of a trade, so I'm trying to make sense of it. Come along with me on this journey.

The Celtics are seemingly set to do the following:

There are a number of things to discuss. Let's start with the big picture.

Are the Celtics Still Doing the Right Thing?

Last year, the C's suspended and then fired Ime Udoka, reportedly because of an inappropriate relationship with a woman in the organization, though we have never heard much publicly from the team about it. That seemed to paint the picture of the Celtics as an organization that does the right thing, and stands by women. But coach Joe Mazzulla was arrested in the past for grabbing a woman by the neck, and Porzingis has been accused of rape in the past as well (that piece by Sopan Deb is a good overview of Porzingis' first few years in the league). While I can't find any resolution, it was alleged that in addition to the rape, Porzingis had punched the victim in the face several times. While people are absolutely capable of rehabilitation, the one thing that differs between these three situations is that one happened while a guy was under contract with the team, and the other two happened prior to their time with the team. Is that the line for morality?

These allegations are four years old, and since they happened pre-pandemic, they feel even older than that. Porzingis also was never charged (at least, not that I could find), so I will be curious to see how much the Boston media covers it. Given all the basketball and salary cap ramifications of this deal, it's possible they will turn a blind eye to it completely. But I would certainly love some candid answers from the big Latvian about it. Or at least from Brad Stevens and/or team ownership.

The Celtics Know Next Year Is Their Last Ride With This Core

There is a salary pinch coming, as I mentioned in my last post. This trade signals that the Celtics know the pinch is coming and they're preparing for it. Brogdon has two years left on his deal, and Porzingis has just one. Brogdon's $22.5M in 2024-25 was going to be untenable in a world where the team keeps Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. While the team will always have a shot at competing with those two under contract, the math of having other big-dollar deals in '24-'25 and beyond is going to be tricky. Porzingis' deal coming off the books after this season would help a great deal. But if the belt will be tightening in '24-'25, that also means this upcoming season could be the team's last as a championship favorite.

This Is Brad Stevens' Biggest Swing

Brad Stevens has made bold moves in the past that no one saw coming. No one was expecting the C's to get Al Horford back, or to acquire Derrick White or Brogdon. But these were moves that didn't immediately look to alter the team's core. Brogdon was told from day one that he'd be the sixth man. White also came of the bench, and getting Horford back was seen as just salvaging any value out of Kemba Walker, and while it worked out better than that, there were open questions about whether Horford could still play at all when the deal was consummated.

This deal feels like a much more seismic shift. Porzingis will almost certainly be in the starting lineup, and there's very little chance the team will be able to play the all-switching defense that they have rode to much success in the past couple of years. Porzingis will be exposed on the perimeter like Horford was last season. Marcus Smart, Payton Pritchard, and White will likely be fighting through a lot more screens next season.

Better Fit, But Similar Profiles

Malcolm Brogdon is viewed an offense-first player who is not seen as a great facilitator or defender, who has had trouble staying healthy.

Kristaps Porzingis is viewed an offense-first player who is not seen as a great facilitator or defender, who has had trouble staying healthy.

Porzingis helps solve the issue of the C's having one great guard too many, but Celtics fans will still need to cross their fingers that the injury bug won't bite the team at the precise worst time, just like it did in the Conference Finals.

It also means Boston's three most prominent big men are either super old or fragile. Maybe seemingly wholesome Brad Stevens secretly loves playing roulette.

Payton Pritchard Is Staying

In a strange twist, the new collective bargaining agreement makes Pritchard more valuable to the Celtics' future than Brogdon. Next season, Pritchard makes $4 million, while Brogdon makes $22.5M. Pritchard then becomes eligible for an extension (I believe), but it's highly unlikely he'll make anywhere near the $22.5M that Brogdon will make in '24-'25.

I have to say, I love this. I did like Brogdon, but he didn't swing the ball as much as was sometimes needed, definitely took some games off, and true to his reputation, he was hurt when it mattered most. Even before that, he didn't shoot anywhere near as well in the playoffs as he had during the regular season. After shooting .484/.444/.870 in the regular season, he shot .418/.379/.829 in the playoffs. Pritchard probably won't be as good, but given the contributions relative to the salary of the four guards, and their overall value to the team, if one of them had to go, Brogdon was my clear choice.

The C's Could Be Once Again Short a Big Man

Adam Himmelsbach hinted that this could spell the end of Grant Williams' time in Boston. I think that'd be a big mistake, for two reasons: 1) I think going forward, Grant will be a more productive player than Al Horford, whose performance in the playoffs tapered off in a big way because he was gassed. If one has to go, I would look to keep Grant and trade Al. 2) More importantly, letting Grant go would leave the team with the same three trusted big men. Last season, it was Robert Williams III, Grant Williams, and Horford. If they let Grant go, you're essentially swapping Porzingis for Grant. Is that an upgrade? Sure. But will the team have enough quality depth?

Perhaps you could argue that a full training camp and regular season with Mike Muscala will give him the familiarity to become a trusted part of the rotation, but Muscala achieved windmill status on defense pretty quickly last season, so I don't know if that is in the cards.

Of course, the offseason has not even really started yet, and the C's will hopefully be able to make more moves. And it's not a given that the C's would let Grant go at all, or for nothing. They could execute a sign and trade, as Brian Robb and others quickly suggested. But if the team truly views this as their last dance, the salary cap pain may be worth it to either keep Grant or sign and trade him.

Unless...Bruce Brown?

In this excellent explainer on the deal, Spotrac's Keith Smith – who is one of the few people out there who knows the ins and outs of the salary cap math – says the following:

"Finally, to wrap things up for Boston, they could be in position to use the $5 million Taxpayer MLE now. If Grant Williams is out of the picture, Boston should have enough room under the second apron to sign a player via the Taxpayer MLE. That player will likely replace whatever the Celtics had hoped to get from Danilo Gallinari, after he lost last season due to a torn ACL."

In a related story, Boston native Bruce Brown just declined his player option for next season and became a free agent. Brown would be the best possible version of what Grant Williams' role was. Grant is a very good player, but he had a lot of growing pains this past season. Brown is older and wiser, and came through in the clutch with a lot more frequency, and is able to body up and guard bigger players in the same way that Grant does.

In a just world, Brown would get more than $5 million. He made more than $5 million last season, if only just. Odds are, he'll try to sign a multi-year deal with a team that pays him much better, or go back to Denver. But you can never rule out a guy wanting to come home. Here's hoping.

Resetting the Roster/Let's Wait on the X's and O's

There will be so much time to evaluate how the C's will try to play in the coming weeks (please dear God move Horford to the bench), after the Draft has come and gone and some of these balls in the air are settled. But here's where things stand right now:

• Guards: Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, JD Davison
• Wings: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser
• Bigs: Kristaps Porzingis, Robert Williams III, Al Horford, Mike Muscala, Luke Kornet
• Restricted Free Agent: Grant Williams
• Free Agents/Non-Guaranteed Guys: Blake Griffin, Mfiondu Kabengele, Justin Champagnie

For the Record

It's irrelevant now, but I was dreaming of Damian Lillard trades the other day, because I thought it would be important for the C's to get in on the bidding there, if for no other reason than to keep him from/drive up the price on the Miami Heat. This trade would have worked if it had been completed before the end of the NBA year at the end of June:

Obviously, draft picks would have had to be involved, and Tyler Herro is a better asset than Horford and Brogdon, but if the Blazers are tanking and want to clean up their cap sheet in the way that the Wizards seemingly are trying to do...I don't know. It was fun to dream on it for a minute. Could you imagine getting Lillard alongside the Jay's, Marcus, Derrick, and Rob? My oh my.

In Summary

Acquiring Kristaps Porzingis could be a stroke of genius. He's 28 this upcoming season and should be in his prime, and he just had his best and healthiest season since he was 21. He only played 65 games, but it looked like he sat the final six games of the season because the Wizards were trying to slip out of the playoffs and into the Draft lottery, and at no other point in the season did he miss more than three straight games.

From a salary perspective, if the C's don't sign him to a contract extension, which seems like the wisest course of action, they would be cleaning up their cap sheet a lot heading into the 2024-25 season, which should allow them to keep the Jay's on the team long-term. That's ultimately what everyone (most everyone?) wants to see. Or, if you really still want to drive Jaylen Brown to the airport, you at least want to retain the flexibility to go out and get another max-level player.

But this could go sideways in a hurry. Porzingis has a checkered personal and injury history, doesn't necessarily play the same style as the Celtics have in the past, and doesn't really seem like a great personality fit with the rest of the roster.

It's a big swing. Is it nuts? Only time will tell. As always, I will hope for the best.