The Jayson Tatum Checklist
Watching Jayson Tatum back on the court these past eight games has been marvelous. We have so quickly progressed from "should he really come back?" to "god, why isn't he shooting better?" and all of the other stupid crap people always get on his case for. Looking at it top down, Tatum has been incredibly effective. Obviously, after eight games, all we have is small sample size theater, but of the 172 players who have played at least eight games and averaged at least 25 minutes per game, Tatum's 11.2 net rating ranks 10th. For a guy who most thought wouldn't or shouldn't play this year, not too shabby!
As I've watched these eight games, I have mentally been running through a checklist of things he is and isn't doing, and I thought we could run through it together. I've been eager to write about this since his first game back against Dallas, but now feels like the right time to reset just a little bit. First, this is the first time the team has had two days off since he came back. Second, there's been a decent number of games to evaluate. And third, tomorrow may be the most important game of the season. The Knicks have finally caught back up, and the C's are about to once again play the defending champs. Tatum sat out the first OKC game, which seemed like the right decision at the time, but we're seemingly at the point where he needs to test himself against the Thunder's incredible – and physical – defense. So, let's get into it!
Range of Motion
This box was immediately checked off. He has had a couple of mistimed jumps toward the rim, but it's pretty clear that all of the cuts and step backs and fast twitch motions that made him such a great player are right back in his bag now.
Dribbling
Another immediate check. Tatum's usage is pretty close to where it usually is, but his turnovers are down. He brought the ball up several times on Sunday night against superb defender Jaden McDaniels, and handled it fine.
Vision & Passing
Still as good as ever. The assists have decreased in the past few games, but some of that has been him making the first pass when the ball starts swinging around the perimeter, as opposed to the final pass. There have definitely been flashes of the old "I didn't think he could fit that pass in there," particularly with pocket passes in the lane to Neemias Queta. It's on those passes that you can so clearly see how he's the team's best passer.
Minutes Played
One of the bigger surprises was that Tatum immediately played 27 minutes per game. That increased after three games to 30-32 minutes per game, and has been at that level since. It's a good level, but in each of the past six postseasons, he's played at least 37 minutes per game, and at least 40 in five of the six. He's not likely to get quite to 40 minutes per game, but if he's going to ramp up to close to that point, he'll need to get closer to 35 minutes per game before the end of the regular season.
Perimeter Defense
This is something that also quickly got checked off the list, and that is both a positive and a negative. On the positive side, Tatum's steals per game are level with his past few years, and they're up on a per 36 minutes basis. He's sliding his feet, and staying in front of defenders out on the wing and at the point of attack. But he's often matched up against non-star-level players, which is putting a greater burden on the other four players than they normally would have with Tatum on the court.
Interior Defense
One thing Tatum hasn't done yet is block a shot. It's not particularly noteworthy. Last season, Tatum had a stretch of six regular season games without notching a block, and multiple stretches of four or five games as well. But anecdotally, it seems like he hasn't blocked a shot yet is because he's been guarding players on the perimeter, and isn't banging bodies down low.
Defensive Rebounding
And yet, his defensive rebounding is right where it normally is. On both a per game and per 36 minutes basis, Tatum's defensive rebounding are actually career bests. It's way too early to take those numbers too seriously, but one thing I have noticed is how the team's defensive rebounding strategy has shifted. Until JT came back, it was an all hands on deck situation, and the team eventually found a really great rhythm with that strategy after being hurt on the glass in the very early parts of the season. But now that JT is back, you often see the other four players releasing downcourt, and leaving the rebounding chores to him. The Nuggets do something similar with Nikola Jokić. It's an implicit statement that Tatum (and Jokić) can handle it, and everyone else can fill other roles.
Offensive Rebounding
It's too early to say anything definitive. He has seven offensive rebounds in eight games, and the one game he didn't was against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. If that ratio holds, it will be the highest rate of his career, but it's probably a little early to get carried away.
Shooting
It's not even remotely there yet, at any level. His shooting percentages are down at nearly every area of the court. He's only shooting better from 10-16 feet from the basket, and that is the area from which he shoots with the second-lowest frequency. The shooting will come, but it may take until he feels comfortable taking all of the shots he normally takes.
Right now, Tatum is not posting up and banging down low. His three-point rate (3PAr) is the highest of his career, and his free throws are the lowest. Both his free throw rate – the number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt – and his number of personal douls drawn (PFD) would both be career lows, and by a decent margin. He is driving to the hoop, but seemingly only in situations where he feels he can get there with little to no resistance. He has done that a number of times, which reinforces how great his court vision still is. And has done so driving with both his left and right hand, which is also encouraging, but otherwise, he's relying on a steady diet of three pointers. And unfortunately, right now, he's not hitting them, and it's snowballing into diluting his confidence.
Fit
This was the biggest question people had. The talk radio variant of this question was silly of course, but the more nuanced look at whether Tatum could let Jaylen Brown lead has been interesting to watch. There have only been good tests in four of the eight games. Against Cleveland and Phoenix, Tatum willingly let JB take over, and JB did. Against San Antonio, JT had to step in and be the team leader once JB was (infuriatingly) ejected, and Tatum kept the team in the game. The loss against Minnesota was a net negative, but it was so for everyone on the team. The refs allowed the T'Wolves to blow up all of Boston's perimeter handoff actions, and the C's responded by going ISO heavy. Neither Tatum nor Brown (nor Derrick White or Payton Pritchard) were able to make them pay.
Tatum's overall usage percentage stands in line with his career averages, but at this point that is mostly because of the San Antonio game. In that game, his USG% was 42.9. In six of the other seven games, it's been under 30, and in four of those, under his career average of 28.5. That does seem a little high, but there's a push and pull there. As big of a Tatum booster as I am, I believe he should be taking a back seat this season in crunch time to JB, but he also needs the ball a lot right now to be able to find his rhythm. Ideally, he'd find his shot in the normal flow of the offense, but with the season winding down, I think he can be forgiven for pressing a little.
Overall
Every team in the NBA could stand to add a player who averages 19.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game, especially one with a super positive net rating and PER. The shooting percentages are abysmal, and it'd be optimal if he was able to trust himself to bang in the paint on both ends of the floor, and get to the free throw line more on offense. It'd also be great to see him more consistently taking on tough defensive assignments, but it'll come. On Sunday, he spent a decent number of possessions guarding Julius Randle. Randle doesn't need anyone's help to have an off night, but JT was effective on him.
It's not perfect, and it's not yet bankable in the way Celtics fans have come to depend upon, but Jayson Tatum is mostly back, and he's got 11 more games and then a full week of practice to get ready for the postseason. Doubt him at your own peril.