The Bigs the Celtics Should Target on the Trade Market

Over the past week or two, the Boston Celtics have been linked to a bunch of centers/bigs in trade rumors, all of them high priced: Ivica Zubac, Daniel Gafford, and now today, Jaren Jackson Jr. I don't think these rumors are really credible, because the Celtics never leak trade talks. So these rumors are likely all coming from the teams who are motivated to trade their players. All are good players, but the reason their teams are OK parting with them is that they make a good deal of money – Jackson especially. Finding the fit in a traditional two-team trade for any of these players would be cumbersome, and almost certainly involves trading Anfernee Simons. But there are other players the Celtics can and should target.

Before we get into that, let me just state for the record that I think it would be an unequivocal mistake to trade Anfernee Simons. When Simons got here, I was not sold. Based on his time in Portland, he seemed like a guy who could only thrive when he had the ball in his hands, and that his lack of good defense was a result of a paucity of both skills and effort. He has proven those narratives wrong. Simons has thrived as a catch-and-shoot guy, and he can thrive with the ball in his hands. He is also clearly the best passer among the team's active players (I'll give Jayson Tatum the edge overall, just because of what his height allows, though he's obviously still injured). Simons really whips some passes into the post, passes that you had not contemplated him throwing because it didn't seem like there was enough room. He had one last night to Neemias Queta. The opposing player guarding Queta, Micah Potter, didn't even see it, he didn't even turn around in time. And, you know, Simons is still a bucket. He can score from anywhere, and do it efficiently. Furthermore, I think that the C's can get Simons to re-sign for less in the offseason. Even $2-5 million less per season would make a huge difference in giving the team the ability to use its full mid-level exception on a decent player instead of a Chris Boucher-level player.

So, if the general thesis here is "don't trade Simons," that limits the financial flexibility the team can use to trade players. The good news is I really only think the C's need the one big. I think they're set everywhere else, especially if we're penciling in Jayson Tatum's eventual return (and I am), and just need to know that the Boucher roster spot is a potentially useful player. I think they should really only be looking to trade Boucher, Baylor Scheierman (because I think he'll be squeezed out of the rotation when Tatum returns), picks, and possibly using a trade exception that they have. I don't quite understand how trade exceptions work, if I'm being honest, and they rarely get used anyway, but I know it's a possibility. If worse comes to worse, Xavier Tillman Sr. can also be moved, but I like him as the last guy on the bench. He's only 27, and yet he's already filling that "wise OG" role, and he knows the team's system and can step in in a pinch, like he did in Cleveland earlier this season.

Who then, to target? I came up with some basic parameters that encompass the commonalities between Queta and Luka Garza. Both have been great this season, but the C's need a third guy. One, there have been a couple of games where they were both in foul trouble, like that Portland game where Mazzulla decided to play small down the stretch and Donovan Clingan went Godzilla. Then there are the situations that call for a competent defensive player, and Garza is just completely lost. Garza's main defensive skill is the ability to foul people. He can't switch on the perimeter at all, and he's not a shot blocker. He has just 16 blocks this season, which is only four more than Sam Hauser, who is three inches shorter and 26 lbs. lighter than Garza. And then just, injuries are bound to happen (knock on wood). When either of them is out of the lineup for a full game, it really feels like the C's are on really thin ice, and that is exacerbated now that Josh Minott has fallen out of the rotation/is hurt.

OK, so parameters. I set several when searching for players who have played this season in my Basketball-Reference search:

• Player height at least 6'10"
• Total Rebound Percentage >= 14
• 2-Point Field Goal Percentage >= .600
• Free Throw Percentage >= .600
• Minutes Played >= 200

In other words, I wanted someone tall who can hit their shots in the paint, who can hit free throws, and is a decent-to-good rebounder. Those are the statistical-searchable things coach Joe Mazzulla is asking of Queta and Garza. He's also asking them to set a lot of good screens and play solid defense, but it's either hard to include those more nebulous things in searches and/or I wanted to keep the search simple. Putting the threshold at 6'10" knocks Robert Williams III out of the equation since he's only listed at 6'9", but I just don't think he should be a target in general given his overall level of health, and his cost. It would absolutely break my heart to have him back on the team and then watch him predictably get hurt again right when we need him.

Here's what the above search spits out, with the players ranked by Win Shares, as defined by Basketball-Reference:

For the record, there is a real cluster from Chet Holmgren at 4.3 WS to Queta at 4.0. It's impossible to overstate just how good Queta has been this season. He's one of the best bigs in the NBA at this point. Anyway, not the point. Here we have 23 players. But not really, because two of them are on the C's already, and a bunch almost certainly won't be traded. Or at least, they won't be traded to the Celtics. Let's add some color:

Shading the unlikely to be traded players in orange and the Boston guys in green, this leaves us with seven targets, none of whom is Jaren Jackson Jr (when I first did this search a week or so ago, Nic Claxton made this group, but he doesn't anymore, which is fine, because I can't stand him, and he's expensive). Red flag to me right away, but I'll add him in below anyway. If we then also leave in the two control players of Queta and Garza for comparison sake, that leaves us with 10 players:

You could quibble with a couple of these if you like. Mark Williams may not really be available because the Suns are playing so well, but they have options, including rookie Khaman Malauch. And with Williams set for free agency, and Phoenix limited in terms of how to upgrade their roster given their lack of flexibility, I felt he merited inclusion. You might also quibble with the inclusion of Diabaté, as he is a young player on a rising Hornets team that could be interesting in a year or two. But I think we still don't know enough about how Charlotte wants to build out their team, and until their plan crystallizes, he could be available. I think it would be perfectly reasonable to suggest, for instance, that as good as Diabaté has been, that they don't want to commit starter money to an undersized center. And if they aren't, then why wouldn't they be willing to trade him, right? At least, that's what I'm going with.

Looking at this list, I think one thing is pretty clear, and that there's absolutely no reason to pay the asking price and/or salaries that Zubac, Gafford, and Jackson would command. First of all, none of them have been as good as Queta has this season. In fact, Jackson doesn't even meet two of the criteria here (shaded in orange in the chart). Certainly, Jackson does other things well, but acquiring him for the strength of those other things means really changing up how the team plays, and why do they want to do that midseason? Even if they weren't playing well overall, that's a big ask.

Second, and more importantly (because if you want to argue that one of the three of them might be more impactful on Boston than their current teams, fine), there are quality options on the board that cost a fraction of the price. I think we can narrow it down to four guys: Mark Williams, Moussa Diabaté, Day'Ron Sharpe, and Marvin Bagley III. (If you'd like to include Jericho Sims for the sake of completion, OK, but I think he'd be an emergency situation, and as desperate as Milwaukee is, they may also not want to trade directly with Boston.) Let's take a closer look at these four players:

• Mark Williams: If the name sounds familiar, it's because he was the player the Lakers reneged on acquiring last season. In my opinion, a huge mistake by the Lakers, and their loss has been Phoenix's gain. Williams has been a beast this season, and a healthy one at that – he's fourth on Phoenix in terms of games started, fifth in terms of minutes played, and sixth in terms of games played. He's leading Phoenix, one of the season's most pleasant surprises, in terms of rebounds and blocks per game, and is a healthy contributor in terms of points and steals. His 3.1 offensive rebounds per game ranks 11th in the NBA and is essentially tied with ninth (Queta) and 10th (Luke Kornet). The health questions would be real, and he'd be a rental since he's a free agent, but perhaps those would keep his asking price down. Again, a bit of a long shot to acquire, but you never know.
• Moussa Diabaté: I certainly wouldn't trade him if I was Charlotte, so the likely asking price would be a first-round pick. I'd be fine paying that price, given that he's just 24 years old and is locked in at a minimum salary for this season and next before becoming an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027. Like Williams, Diabaté leads the Hornets in rebounds per game. He also doesn't turn the ball over – his 0.8 turnovers per game basically ranks second on the Hornets after Sion James. That low number is especially notable on a chaotic Hornets team that ranks 24th in turnovers per game (and they are just a hair away from sliding all the way down to 29th).
• Day'Ron Sharpe: Sharpe is probably the best option in that sweet spot of players actually available who are good and who won't cost much. Sharpe plays with a real ... sharpness (sorry not sorry), and I like the edge in his game. At 265 lbs., he's a mountain of a man (Queta and Garza are listed at 248 and 243, respectively), and I think they would form a great "bonecrushing screens" trio. Sharpe playing better than ever this season – his FG% is way up, his assists are up, and his 12.6 rebounds per 36 minutes not only lead the Nets by a wide margin but would just edge out Queta to lead the C's as well. However, with Claxton being healthy, Noah Clowney emerging, and the Nets needing to find playing time for rookie Danny Wolf, Sharpe is still seeing the same ~18 minutes per game that he did last season. In other words, Brooklyn would probably be eager to trade Sharpe, and the price may only be a couple of second-round picks. The issue is that at $6.25M, the C's can't do a simple Boucher/Scheierman swap for him, but I am confident that Brad Stevens could work out a trade without actually including a player the C's would want to keep.
• Marvin Bagley III: I just can't quit him. I was actually looking at his numbers compared to Sam Bowie – since they're two of the most famous No. 2 picks of all-time not because of who they are but who they were drafted in front of (Luka Dončić and Michael Jordan, respectively) – and they were eerily similar. I guess I just still want to believe in a world where Bagley can be a contributor on a championship team, and earn some level of vindication for himself. Even if the Kings reached for him at No. 2, he probably would have gone in the top 5-10 picks. It's not his fault they took him instead of Dončić. ANYWAY, Bagley is shooting better than ever this season, and is still rebounding and blocking shots at a good clip. He's basically been just as effective as Gafford, but for 1/7 the cost, he'll not cost much in trade, and he'll fit much better on the Celtics because he won't need to vault over Queta or Garza in the depth chart.

Bottom line – I think it'd be wonderful to acquire a guy like Zubac or Gafford (I don't actually want the team to get JJJ, he's way too expensive and not productive enough in my opinion) in a vacuum. All three have already played well in prior postseasons, which is something my four targets here haven't done. But cost is a factor, as is the disruption to the team. Acquiring one of Williams, Diabaté, Sharpe, or Bagley III should fit more seamlessly in multiple ways, and thus they are who I would target at the trade deadline.