The 3rd Quarter Hasn't Been a Problem For Awhile

Back in December, I was asked to be the guest speaker at a meeting of my town's Lions Club. Technically, I was there to talk about my bookstore, and to encourage folks to shop local with the holidays in full swing. But since I used to write about sports, I was asked to give some quick thoughts on the Boston sports scene. I said that I thought the Celtics were the best team in the NBA. And someone piped up to say, "except in the third quarter!," a statement that was met with many head nods. And rightly so.

The Celtics third quarters have been a talking point for some time. During the 2022 NBA Finals, they lost the third quarter in each of the first four of the six games, some very decisively so. Then in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat outscored them by 21 points in the third quarter of Game 1, and by 15 in their decisive, seemingly nail-in-the-coffin Game 3 win. So it's been a point of emphasis this season.

Let's take a look at a bar chart of how the C's have fared this season in the third quarter:

You can see that things have ebbed and flowed a little bit. There was a rough six-game stretch around Thanksgiving, but the problems really cropped up in January. During the month of January, the C's were outscored by five or more points in the third quarter in nine of their 16 games. This culminated with being outscored by 12 points in their January 30 win over the Indiana Pacers. The C's would hang on to win that game, but the win felt more like survival than anything else.

Since then though, the third quarter has not been an issue. At that point, the C's had played 48 games, and had been outscored in the third quarter in 23 of them. Since then, they've outscored their opponent in the third quarter in 13 of 18 games, including Thursday night's win over Phoenix. However, that underscores things a little bit. Let's take a look at some numbers:

You can see it pretty clearly here. Through the first two-plus months of the season, the C's were on the whole playing well in the third quarter, and things took a sharp turn south during January, before picking up in a big way the past month and a half. And honestly, if there's going to be a month for regression, it's January. It's often referred to as the doldrums of the season. After Christmas and New Year's, there is not any break during January, especially because Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend is a showcase for the league. That's not an excuse, but it is understandable at least. Since then though, the team has been on fire, and third-quarter performance has been huge. The first quarter has been the team's best quarter all season, but the third quarter has been right behind it.

Tonight was a perfect example. Jaylen Brown has said all year that the team doesn't want to skip any steps, and in the third tonight, they showed it. The C's won the first two quarters by three and two points, respectively, but it looked like it would be a tough-fought game throughout. But after Bradley Beal and Devin Booker knocked down two quick shots in the first minute of the quarter to cut the lead to four, the C's then held the Suns scoreless for the next 2:44. By the time Phoenix scored again with 8:16 left, the C's had built their first double-digit lead of the game. Phoenix would get the lead back under 10 points for about a minute and a half, but with 6:11 left in the quarter, the C's would go back up by double digits and Phoenix would never get any closer.

That pivotal sequence came the hard way – Durant missed 17 footer, Booker missed 12 footer, Beal missed 6 footer, Durant lost ball turnover, Durant missed 16 footer, Durant missed 28 footer, Beal bad pass turnover. Those are the three guys Phoenix wants to have the ball, and Boston took it all away.

This Celtics team is not perfect. They proved that last week. Jayson Tatum needs to make better end-game decisions. Jaylen Brown needs to hit his free throws. Derrick White needs to take fewer threes. Kristaps Porzingis has to stay healthy. And Joe Mazzulla has to be less stubborn about his time out usage (he was really good with them tonight). No team is perfect. But as the C's have kicked things into high gear these past six weeks, they have taken care of business in the third quarter, and that's a beautiful thing.