Seven or Eight?

Watching Game 5 was the kind of game that rewarded loyal fans. If you watch enough games, you see a team at its worst, and at its best, but most games are in between. In Game 5, the Celtics played at their best for most of the entire four quarters. The reserves kind of let go of the rope when they got in right at the end. Not a huge deal in terms of Game 5, but could it be a bigger deal in Game 6?

The most alarming thing to come out of Game 5 was the fact that Malcolm Brogdon only played eight minutes. He checked in with 4:07 left in the first quarter, and checked out with 8:12 left in the second quarter. In that time, he took two three pointers and didn't do much else. The first one looked good out of his hand, but neither one dropped. He is clearly very bothered by his forearm injury.

On the one hand, this has moved Derrick White irrevocably into the closing lineup. That's good! On the other hand, the C's essentially went with just seven guys the rest of the game. Payton Pritchard got 1:13 toward the end of the third quarter, and coach Joe Mazzulla thought that time went so poorly that he called a time out with 37.2 seconds left in the quarter seemingly for the sole purpose of removing Pritchard from the game.

The question for Game 6 then becomes – seven or eight? At this point in the series – in its sixth game, and in the 19th game of the postseason – are the C's willing to put Pritchard, Sam Hauser, or anyone else back into the rotation and give them 10 to 20 minutes of action? Normally, I would say no. But there are a few factors to consider:

1. The Celtics have been getting leads by pushing the pace. It obviously becomes harder to consistently push the pace when you play one fewer player. The C's won Game 6 in Philadelphia by shortening the rotation to just seven players, but they also only scored 95 points in that game, and had just 81 before Jayson Tatum hit the first of his three pointers with 4:24 left. In Game 5, the C's passed 81 points with 2:58 left in the third quarter. The one saving grace here? Al Horford again played less than 30 minutes.
2. The Heat will have a lot of guys they're comfortable playing in Game 6. Haywood Highsmith played really well in Game 5. He put in 15 points on 6-of-9 shooting in 36 minutes, which was his playoff career high by more than a factor of two. It seems as though they'll get Gabe Vincent back for Game 6. And no matter what they say about Tyler Herro, the fact that he was on the court shooting before Game 5 means he's in play for Game 6. In summary, the Heat have 10 guys who have played an average of 10 minutes per game or better in this series. Plus Herro, potentially. That's a lot of bodies to throw at people. Which brings us to the final reason.
3. Can the Celtics avoid foul trouble? One of the hallmarks of this Celtics team is to defend at a high level without fouling. In the regular season, only four teams averaged fewer fouls per game. Jimmy Butler specifically referenced this skill last night in his postgame press conference. But in the two games in Miami, it was a different story:

As you can see, while the fouls called were relatively even in Boston, the Celtics were whistled a lot more frequently in Miami, to the point where they were whistled for more fouls in the two games in Miami than they were for the three games in Boston. You can bet that the Heat will be deep into their free throw grifting bag in Game 6. Can the Celtics still defend at a high level then? Can the refs see through the act? And if they can't, and a couple of Celtics get into foul trouble, will Mazzulla be forced to expand his rotation? I think Sam Hauser could be a good matchup against Kevin Love and/or Max Strus, but he hasn't really played meaningful minutes in this series.

The Celtics have won games this season without Malcolm Brogdon. But in the regular season, the C's were happy to lean on their depth. They have not been as willing to do so in the postseason, and that to me will be a huge factor on Saturday night.

Butler Watch

Jimmy Butler only put in 14 points in Game 5. After getting to 29 points in Game 4 on the strength of 12 free throws, he was not nearly as aggressive in Game 5. He shot 50% from the field, but the key is that he only took 10 shots. He passed out of 1-on-1 situations in which he is capable of scoring more than once, and after playing all of the third quarter, subbed out with 9:47 left in the fourth and never returned. He seemed to be pacing himself throughout. The Heat did not run a lot of the multiple screen look to get Butler shifted onto his preferred defender like they usually do.

We've seen this before. In last year's Eastern Conference Finals, he only scored a total of 27 points across Games 3-5, after scoring 41 and 29 in Games 1 and 2, respectively, and before putting in 47 and 35 in Games 6 and 7. Can he do that again? Does he have another 47-point Game 6 in him? He must think so, otherwise he wouldn't have guaranteed a Heat win in Game 6.

The C's can't control whether Butler is trying his hardest or coasting, but once again, they did a great job on him in Game 5. Again, the two bars are keeping him under 30 points (check) and under 11 free throw attempts (just six, and all in the first half, so again, check), and Boston did beautifully in both regards. They've now held him under 11 free throw attempts in four of the five games, and he just barely cleared the bar in Game 4. Whether the C's can do this again in Game 6 will go a long way toward determining whether they come home for Game 7.

Finally

Just in case you missed it on the postgame show, a person at the game had a very striking t-shirt:

I am the last person to call for a defense of Kyrie Irving, and even I think that is out of hand. I did laugh, though. I especially liked how "Isis" is not capitalized, and also, not an actual person. I will also say that I miss being young enough to think that wearing that t-shirt is a good idea, hah.