Four Things I've Been Thinking About

Let's start at the ending – the series prediction. And to do so, let's actually start at the beginning. At the beginning of the season, my NBA Finals pick was Celtics in five. At the beginning of the postseason, my NBA Finals pick was Celtics in five. The pick hasn't changed now, it's Celtics in five.

With that out of the way, I wanted to provide four brief reminders before Game 1 tips off.

Jaylen Brown's Shooting Has Been Otherworldly

Last postseason, Jaylen shot .496 from the field, which was a huge improvement over the .476 and .470 marks he had posted in the 2019-2020. This postseason, he's blown that figure out of the water, as he is shooting .541 from the field. This is not just a heater, it's a historic heater.

Since the ABA/NBA merger for the 1976-1977 season, there have been 337 players who have had postseasons similar to Jaylen. The criteria:

• 6'7" or shorter. Jaylen is listed as 6'6", but I put in an extra inch just in case.
• Played 10+ games in a single postseason
• Attempted 200+ field goals in a single postseason

Of these 337 players, Jaylen's 2023-2024 postseason FG% currently ranks seventh.

Pretty good company. That Bernard King postseason was referenced ad nauseum in the first two rounds when Jalen Brunson was going off. But, hey, maybe FG% isn't your thing, you want to look at eFG%. That incorporates the important difference that a three-point shot is worth more than a two-point shot. OK. Jaylen ranks 10th by that metric:

Hey look, there's a peak Stephen Curry season in the mix. Also, Tyrese Haliburton from this postseason. Which is a good little reminder within a reminder. Dallas is almost certainly going to be better defensively than Indiana was, but Indiana was scorching hot shooting the ball. It would be difficult for Dallas to shoot better than Indiana did. And the C's were able to match Indiana point for point, game by game, in large part thanks to how hot Jaylen has been.

Jayson Tatum Has Never Been Bothered By PJ Washington

Jayson Tatum is an excellent basketball player. If you are a close follower of the Celtics, you know that one of the teams that he's always been the most excellent against is the Charlotte Hornets. To wit:

You know who his primary defender has been for the majority of these games vs. the Hornets? PJ Washington. The same PJ Washington who will be his primary defender in this series. Is it a one-for-one comparison? No, definitely not. Washington came into the league two seasons after Tatum, and there were probably a few games where Washington either didn't play or wasn't on Tatum the whole game. And certainly Washington has a better support system in Dallas than he had in Charlotte. But Washington never even remotely bothered Tatum in Charlotte. All of those numbers above – those are easily Tatum's bests. They stick out compared to other teams. He has said he enjoys playing in Charlotte, but those splits count the home games too.

Maybe it'll be a new day for PJ Washington. But the burden of proof is on him. History dictates that Tatum is completely unbothered by him.

Kyrie Irving Isn't The Celtics Killer He Used to Be

Kyrie Irving made brief steps toward atonement about his time in Boston earlier this week, before shifting into "I don't care about the crowd" mode. I won't presume to know what Irving truly believes. What I do know is that making him the villain plays into his hands. His play against Boston the past three seasons says he hasn't earned the right to that power. Because, objectively, Irving just hasn't been a problem for the Celtics for awhile. Let's look at some splits:

In the immediate aftermath of his move to Brooklyn, Irving was a big problem for the C's, and he was at his best in the 2021 first-round series against Boston when he was riding high with Kevin Durant and James Harden. Jaylen Brown missed that entire series, and Kemba Walker missed two of the five games. Tristan Thompson and Evan Fournier started all five games, and Romeo Langford started two of them. That the Celtics even won one game in that series (Tatum put up a 50 piece) is a miracle.

Since then? Irving hasn't been anywhere close to as much of a problem. He shot below 50% in eight of the 10 games, and he hit more than three three's in just one of those games. More importantly, his team – eight with Brooklyn and two with Dallas – was 0-10 in those 10 games. In his five most recent games played against Boston, he was -16, -11, -31, 0, and -15 in terms of +/-. Once the Jay's grew into lead players and the C's got Derrick White (and now Jrue Holiday), Irving just hasn't been a difference maker against Boston.

Will it be different now? Perhaps, but again, the burden of proof is on him to show that he's figured out how to be better against Boston.

No One Wants This More than Al Horford

Al Horford has played 181 playoff games in his NBA career, without winning a championship ring. I am confident in saying that no one – not a single person on earth – wants an NBA championship ring more than Al Horford. And after playing every other day for the past two rounds, there is an extra day off after six of the potential seven NBA Finals games, and he just had his longest in-season vacation since Oklahoma City mothballed him a few years ago. So the other team won't be able to even count on Al getting tired. He's going to be fired up. I'm fired up for him.

Ok, enough minutiae from me. Let's get ready for some NBA Finals basketball!