Reasons Not To Panic
The Celtics have not had the best December. The mediocre record also feels worse than it really is because with Kristaps Porzingis coming back early, it seemed like they were ready to go God Mode on the league just like last year. It hasn't worked out that way, but when you look back at the month, there are silver linings to find. For instance, four of the six losses were by six or fewer points, and the only really unacceptable loss was the one to Chicago. So rather than succumb to panic, let's take a look for the positives.
The number of things that had to go wrong for us to lose most of these games was staggering.
In the game in Cleveland, Al Horford shot 2-for-9 from three, and Payton Pritchard was 3-for-10. Jrue Holiday was 2-for-9 overall. Drew Peterson was needed for 25 minutes, because neither Jaylen Brown nor Derrick White played. And we lost by four.
The Memphis game was the team's fifth game in seven days. Al Horford didn't play. Jayson Tatum shot 6-for-21, and Jrue famously shot 8-for-26, as the Grizzlies left him wide open for wide swaths of the game. Porzingis shot 6-for-17, and D White shot 6-for-17. Overall, the team shot 40%, and the Grizz shot 50%. The C's lost by six.
The Chicago game was unacceptable, no caveats for that.
Tatum was ruled out minutes before tip of the game in Orlando. Maybe the team had an inkling that he would sit, but it seemed like a total shock to the broadcasters, and usually Brian Scalabrine and Abby Chin are dialed in on stuff like that. Horford and Porzingis combined to shoot 5-for-20 from the field, and 1-for-9 from three. Jaylen shot 1-for-7 from three. Sam Hauser played 16 minutes and didn't put up a shot, either because the Magic keyed on him or because he was playing hurt. Or both. On the other side, the Magic were playing ferocious basketball, trying to prove that they could win without Paolo Banchero and the Wagner brothers. Trevelin Queen and Tristan Da Silva combined to shoot 7-for-12 from three. The threes Queen hit represent three of the eight threes he's hit this season. Da Silva had never before hit four three's in an NBA game. Tip your hat. And the C's lost by four.
On Christmas, Jrue Holiday didn't play, and the Sixers basically played a perfect game. They only turned the ball over six times. Caleb Martin shot 7-for-9 on three. You could say that balanced because Paul George was 0-for-7 from three, but overall Philly hit 42.5% of their three's. They forced 10 steals to our three. They forced Jaylen into five turnovers, D White into four, and Tatum into three. Joel Embiid disappeared in the fourth like he always does (he literally didn't take a single shot), but over the first three quarters, he basically hit every shot (8-for-15 from the field, 4-for-5 from three, 7-for-7 at the line). And the C's lost by four.
The Indiana loss had a lot to do with it being a little mini-series and the Pacers had two days in Boston to do nothing but game plan for that specific game. I know it was a home game, but I think that kind of thing is actually an advantage for the visiting team. Those guys have all been to Boston plenty, it's not like they needed time to go sightseeing. Indiana again played a nearly perfect game – they shot 52.9% from the field (we shot 46.2%), outrebounded us by nine, and took eight more free throws. They used Myles Turner perfectly. The C's defensive theory was to cover him with a smaller player, believing that he would flash out of the paint to shoot three's. He didn't. He stuck in the paint, and we either fouled him or he got an easy shot at the rim. They fouled him on three consecutive plays in the first quarter. Neither Holiday nor Porzingis was available for this one. And we lost by nine.
The Starting Lineup Was Incredibly Inconsistent in December
In the 19 games in October and November, the C's used seven different starting lineups. The most consecutive games in which they used different starting lineups was three, but luckily two of those games were against Charlotte and it didn't matter. In the 13 games in December thus far, the C's have used nine different starting lineups. They used a different starting lineup in each of the first six games of the month, and then did it again for three straight games in the Orlando, Philly, and first Indiana game, two of which were losses.
This is a veteran team with a lot of strong players who are used to change, but that's a lot of change for any team, and in games that are decided by four-to-six points, needing a few extra minutes to find a rhythm – especially for a team built on rhythm shooting – can have an effect.
The C's are only three games off of last year's pace
I mean, honestly, that's not bad, especially considering health. The difference this year is Cleveland just beating on teams, and New York is on a roll too. Odds are, New York is going to stay on said roll until the All-Star break. But after the All-Star break, 12 of their first 15 games are road games. That's super tough. The C's have a bunch of road trips coming up, but they are not quite that concentrated. Still, there's a decent chance the Knicks pass the C's in the standings in January or early February. Nevertheless, at 23-9 the C's are only three wins worse than the 26-6 mark they had at this point last season. It makes for a 58.9 win pace instead of last year's 64. And, just as a reminder, 58 or 59 wins would only trail last season, 2007-2008, and 2008-2009 this century in terms of wins. Fifty-eight or 59 wins would be pretty great!
The C's still control their destiny in the season series' vs. Cleveland, New York, and Orlando
They are 1-1 vs. Cleveland with two more games remaining. They are up 1-0 on the Knicks, and one of the three remaining games is on April 8th. If the C's win one of the next two, it will put a lot of pressure on the Knicks to try super hard in April at a time when teams are trying to rest up for the postseason. The inverse could be true for the C's with Orlando. They are down 1-0 in that series, and have two remaining games. One of those is on April 9th, the day after the Knicks game, and both of those are road games. That's not great, but at least they're still under Boston's control. And the C's are still up four games on Orlando. And that is the only game of the remaining games against these three teams where the C's will be playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
The East is better than it gets credit for
This is going to sound a little snarky, but the most succinct way I can summarize the two conferences is that the West is better at mediocrity. The top four East seeds have a better record than the top four seeds in the West, but from there things tilt in the West's favor. But that is changing. The East was 10-7 against the West last week, and then last night the Cavs and Sixers beat up on the Warriors and Blazers, respectively.
The East started slow, but there are now seven teams above .500 teams in the East, and the Pacers have been knocking on that door hard over the last two weeks (they have won seven of 10 after starting 9-14) to get to within a game of .500.
We still have the Jay's
Jayson Tatum's MVP case has never been stronger. Do you know how many players his height (his listed height is 6'8") or lower have ever averaged 28-9-5 for a full season? Five – Elgin Baylor, Luka Dončić, John Havlicek, Oscar Robertson, and Russell Westbrook. Only 12 players have ever done it overall. And Tatum is doing it career-best best percentages in terms of 2P%, and more importantly eFG% and TS%.
I gave Jaylen a lot of grief for his shooting the other day, and then he immediately went out and had two of his four best shooting performances of the season (16-for-24 and 13-for-21, respectively). It didn't dramatically improve his percentages for the season, but Jaylen is going to be just fine, and is now averaging a career-best 24.9 points per game. More importantly, he's pissed with the team's defensive effort. Like I said the other day, when Jaylen really locks in, this Celtics team becomes dominant. And I think the New Year is going to bring a locked-in Jaylen Brown.
Zooming out, it is becoming clear that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are one of the best duos the league has seen this century. Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, and Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have to be considered the three best duos, and Tim Duncan and Tony Parker aren't far behind. Tatum and Brown don't have the championship hardware to be in that rarefied air quite yet, but how many other duos can you say have been definitively better? Candidates include Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and of course, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Individually, the latter two duos might be better, but when they were together? I don't think so. And from there, you're doing a lot of squinting.
In the Jay's we trust.