Plan A Is Not Enough to Beat the Heat in a Close Game

Or: The Miami Heat are smarter than you.

The Miami Heat stormed back and beat the Denver Nuggets in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. I didn't watch it – I went with the family to see "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse," which was an excellent decision, I have to tell you. Go see it.

The reason I didn't watch – aside from having no other logical window to go see the movie before leaving for a conference this week – was because I just had a feeling this would be one of those bittersweet Miami games. Neither the Heat nor Celtics would have had a shot at winning Game 1. Denver was ready and waiting, and both East teams just went through war to get there, with minimal rest. Miami was especially at a disadvantage because they had to fly to Denver, whereas Denver would have had to at least go to Boston.

The great Tom Ziller broke down the Heat's Game 2 fourth-quarter offense in his newsletter today, and his newsletter is well worth your time today and every day. I wanted to focus on one snapshot of the game, because I can't believe Miami's opponents keep doing these things. Before we delve into it, I just want you to look at these two screenshots, and then we'll talk. This one is from 6.6 seconds left, and is the first frame of the video clip "MISS Murray 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot," ie the last shot of the game:

The next screenshot is from 1.6 seconds later:

Two things happened in between these two screenshots – one completely inexplicable, and one completely predictable. Inexplicably, Nikola Jokić sets a pick for Jamal Murray that takes him from being defended by Gabe Vincent to being defended by Jimmy Butler. Why? To what end? Are you trying to get Jokić the ball here? If so, why? Jokić is the MVP, but Murray is a better three-point shooter, and the best shooter on the floor is Michael Porter Jr. Jokić is third-best by the percentages.

Either way, Denver didn't have time to even think that through, because Jimmy Butler immediately darts out to try to get a steal. Denver should have seen this coming. Since entering the league in 2011-2012, only six players have more total playoff steals than Jimmy Butler, and none are still alive in these playoffs. If you don't think Butler is going for the steal there, you're not paying attention. Because Butler knows there is not a single bit of downside to this move. If he is whistled for a foul before Murray shoots, Denver just gets two free throws, and loses the opportunity to tie. And if he isn't whistled for a foul (more likely), then your ballhandler suddenly is twisted and turned around at the freaking logo and all out of sorts, with just five seconds left. Go look at that second screenshot again and tell me this was what Denver wanted.

As far as I'm concerned, the game ended right here. Michael Malone should have called time out before the play started, but he had one final chance to save things by calling a time out with five seconds left and Denver's play completely broken. He didn't, and Murray got off an awful shot that had little chance of going in, and the Nuggets lost a game they could have won. If I had watched the whole game, I think I would have felt the way I felt after Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, namely – how did the Nuggets lose that game?

The Heat won this game because they're smarter than you. They're the best-coached team, but coaching only gets you so far. The bottom line is that execution is intelligence, and the Heat are the smartest team because they always execute. It's why they consistently beat teams that are hailed as being more talented. Talent isn't enough.

The reason Malone and the Nuggets needed to call time out is not because their Plan A was flawed, necessarily (though given the time left, it kind of was, again because they wasted time bringing the ball up the court). They needed to call time out because you have to talk through what Plan B is, what Plan C is. We just watched Miami blow up the Celtics end-of-game action in Game 6. Miami is more than capable of disrupting you whether you get a time out or not. Butler has played 4,384 playoff minutes, more than half of them with this Heat team. You are not going to fool Jimmy Butler. And if you're not ready for his disruption, you end up with a desperate, crap shot. Two more screenshots:

The best three-point shooter in this series is standing wide open in the corner. There's enough time for a pass, catch, and shoot. This is the exact same set up the Heat played at the end of Game 6 of the East Finals, with Caleb Martin cheating into the middle and leaving a shooter in the corner wide open. Miami is betting you won't find that shooter. And they were right.

Because Murray is all out of sorts and just trying to make something happen to overcome Butler's pressure defense, there's just no chance he saw Porter in the corner. His moving in the opposite direction, and as a result, he would have needed to make a perfect pass to even get him the ball. Instead he took a step back that carried his momentum even further away from the hoop, and if you watch the other nine guys on the floor, not a single one of them thinks that shot is going in. And that led to this face:

That's the face of a person who cannot believe his team just lost. But anyone who has watched enough Miami Heat games was not in the least bit surprised. Can you blow the doors off the Heat? Absolutely, which is what makes their ability to execute so crisply in close games extra maddening. But this is just what they do in those situations, and you have to be ready with Plan B and Plan C if you're going to beat them. The Nuggets weren't ready, and now we get to see if it'll cost them.