One Person's Guide to Today's Most Important Games
With the Play-In Tournament, the final day of the regular season has become an incredibly fun NBA day. Every team plays, and with the exception of one game, the East teams play at 1 pm and the West teams play at 3:30 pm (the one exception is Detroit, which has to play in San Antonio at 3:30 pm), which helps avoid any chicanery. What's more, because there are so many playoff seeds still up for grabs, just about all of today's games are meaningful. So I thought I'd rank/bucket these games.
Before I do, let me just say that I have so many thoughts on MVP, All-NBA, and all the other awards. I've half-written one piece, and have a couple of others in my head, but a) I want to wait until the season actually ends, because these last games are important and b) I'm supposed to be doing my actual work (come to our Kids Graphic Novel Festival next weekend!). But at a certain point, if I don't write something about basketball/sports, I'll explode, and so this shorter piece was born.
We'll start with least important:
15 - Washington vs. Boston: Ironic, since it's the one game I am sure to watch every second of. Boston has nothing to play for, and Washington can't improve their draft stock. Even if they lose and Detroit wins, Detroit has the worse conference record and would still get the best odds for the No. 1 pick. Washington can't even lose right. Sad.
14 - Houston vs. LA Clippers: Houston has a very small chance of tying Chicago if they lose and Chicago wins, but the Knicks need that game and Chicago doesn't for playoff seeding. And the Clippers are locked into the four seed.
13 - Detroit vs. San Antonio: Detroit is going to have the best odds for the No. 1 pick, but the Spurs are sitting Victor Wembanyama today in an effort to finish with the third-worst record, which they are currently tied for with Portland. My apologies to anyone who has to watch this game.
12 & 11 - Portland vs. Sacramento & Utah vs. Golden State: "Taking care of business" games for Sacramento and Golden State, who need the win, but also the inverse is true for both Portland and Utah, as they could improve their standings (and thus worsen their draft odds) with a win. And neither wants to do that.
10 & 9 - Dallas vs. Oklahoma City and Denver vs. Memphis: Denver blew their chances at controlling their destiny for the No. 1 seed by losing to San Antonio on Friday. Wemby had a 34-12 double double, but if you go look at the rest of that box score, it's pretty brutal. I watched the final few minutes, and that Denver team was unrecognizable. Anyway, assuming all three of OKC, Denver, and Minnesota win today, the standings don't change. Minnesota's game will be ranked higher because it's less of a given that they win today, but both Dallas and Memphis are locked into their positions in the standings, and thus have nothing to play for today. Unless of course, Dallas really doesn't want to play Oklahoma City in a potential second-round matchup, and tries to win today to push them down to two or three. If that happens, this game immediately shoots up the rankings, but I don't see that happening since Dallas has already announced they're sitting most of their regular players.
8 & 7 - Chicago vs. New York & Charlotte vs. Cleveland: These are again "taking care of business" games for New York and Cleveland that only become interesting if Milwaukee loses. Both teams are locked into a top-4 seed, so even if Cleveland loses to Charlotte like they did a couple of weeks ago, it won't drop them lower than they currently are.
6, 5, & 4 - Toronto vs. Miami, Atlanta vs. Indiana & Brooklyn vs. Philadelphia: Once again, these are games the home team jockeying to get out of the play-in should win, and they only become important if that a) doesn't happen or b) if Orlando loses. The games themselves should be fairly rote, it's more the race itself. I have Philly in the four spot just because it's another opportunity to see Joel Embiid's conditioning and performance heading into the playoffs (and to a lesser extent, the same is true for Trae Young, making that game slightly more intriguing to me than the Miami game).
3 - Phoenix vs. Minnesota: The first of the three really important games. I think there is a big, big difference for Minnesota between facing New Orleans and Phoenix (or whomever wins that spot if Phoenix can't win in the 7 vs. 8 play-in). A win guarantees the Timberwolves the two seed and New Orleans avoidance (if Phoenix loses, they definitively can't finish better than seventh). I think New Orleans would be a very tough matchup for Minnesota, and easily the toughest of the five options on the table for them.
For Phoenix, this is about mitigating disaster. A win could get them to the six seed and out of having to play in the play-in. Their reward for doing so would likely be getting more games vs. Minnesota, which isn't exactly ideal, but Phoenix has beaten them both times they've played this season. And given how all-in they went for this season, dropping to the play-in would be unimaginably bad. Especially since given how inconsistent they've been there's no guarantee they got out of the play-in.
2 - LA Lakers vs. New Orleans: A win guarantees New Orleans the six seed. After two straight years in the play-in tournament, the six seed should be motivation enough. But winning this game also buys them another week to get Brandon Ingram right. Ingram was upgraded to questionable for today, but hasn't played since March 21st, and even if he does play today, I'm sure the Pelicans would love an extra five or six days of rest for him.
On LA's side, a win locks them into the eight seed and thus two chances to advance from the play-in. It's not much, but you take every advantage you can get, especially since both the seven and eight seeds seem likely to avoid Denver.
1 - Milwaukee vs. Orlando: It's really hard to overstate just how close the Bucks are to choking their way down to the three or even the four seed. If the Bucks lose, and the Knicks and Cavs win, Milwaukee drops to the four seed. None of those things happening are implausible. As we've discussed, the Knicks and Cavs have favorable matchups at home. Milwaukee is on the road and without their best player. They've only won three of their last 10 games, and one of those was against a Boston team that wasn't even trying.
Orlando also has every reason to win. A win keeps them out of the play-in, and potentially as high as the fifth seed. That's a very simple calculus for them – win and you're in. Lose, and all sorts of things come into play, including dropping all the way down to the eight seed. Given how high they've been in the standings this season (I believe they spent a little time as the two seed, and am almost certain they were the three seed for a bit), dropping all the way to eighth would be a massive disappointment, even when you consider that they finished 13th in the East last season. And dropping to eighth is in play, because the teams they're jockeying with have favorable matchups, and Orlando has lost four of their last five, including to Milwaukee (again, without Giannis Antetokounmpo) on Wednesday.