Mission: Stop Jimmy

Sometimes, the mission is simple. For the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, that simple mission is to stop Jimmy Butler. Let's talk about why.

In all likelihood, the Miami Heat are going to play eight guys in the Eastern Conference Finals vs. the Boston Celtics – Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent. Those eight guys have played 91% of the Heat's playoff minutes thus far this postseason. Another two percent have gone to their injured players, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. The only other players to receive decent playing time are Cody Zeller and Haywood Highsmith. Highsmith played just 2:35 in Game 5 vs. the New York Knicks, and then didn't play at all in Game 6. Zeller has gotten a consistent seven to 12 minutes per game, but in his 10 playoff games he's taken three shots or fewer in nine of them. It would be a surprise if he saw second-half minutes in this series.

Here's how those aforementioned eight guys have shot thus far this season for the Heat:

As you can see, the difference between Butler and the other seven players in aggregate is striking – during both the regular season and the playoffs, Butler is shooting more than 80 points better than his teammates. Offensively, the Heat do not have a 1B to Butler's 1A the way the Celtics or 76ers do. I don't really like double teaming players, either strategically or stylistically. But in this series, it's going to be warranted. Let me give you two more Butler factoids.

Since Butler joined the Heat in the season that would come to be known as the Bubble season (2019-2020), he has played in 52 playoff games. He has scored 30 or more points in 16 of those 52 games. The Heat are a cool 13-3 in those games. Fortunately for the C's, one of those three losses was Game 7 of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, when Butler scored 35 points. But the point is that when Butler is cooking, it's very hard to stop the Heat. On the other side of the coin, in the 18 games where Butler has scored 19 or fewer points, the Heat are just 7-11. Stopping Butler isn't an automatic win for the opposing team, but they become a lot more beatable.

So how do you stop Butler? The answer is simple, but the execution is not – you keep him off the free throw line. In those 52 playoff games, Butler has gotten to the line 11 or more times in 18 of those games. In those 18 games, the Heat are 14-4. In the other 34 games, they are 18-16. But keeping him off the foul line is easier said than done. Butler knows all the tricks to get himself to the line.

Luckily for Boston, this is the exact problem they just faced with Joel Embiid. Embiid averaged 11.7 free throw attempts in the regular season, but just 10.0 against the Celtics. That is an improvement, but even that is a little misleading. Embiid got to the line 46 times in Games 2-5 (11.5 FTA/game) before the C's made some adjustments and held him to just 14 total over Games 6-7. One of the big adjustments they made to get that 40% reduction in Embiid's free throw attempts from the regular season in Games 6-7 was to have Marcus Smart guard Embiid in the post, and front him so as to deny Embiid the ball in the first place. I think that is a strategy the C's will have to look toward in the East Finals.

Of course, Embiid and Butler are not 1-for-1 comparisons. The biggest difference is that Embiid didn't have another big man setting screens for him. Once he got the ball, he had to sink or swim on his own. Not so for Butler, who will have Adebayo and his variety of illegal/moving screens to help him (literally, Bam Adebayo has never set a legal screen). So not only will double teaming be harder, but so will be getting the 1-on-1 matchups they want. In last year's East Finals, Butler mercilessly hunted Payton Pritchard on switches until Pritchard stopped him a couple of times/he was removed from the game.

When the C's do double Butler, they'll want to help off of Gabe Vincent and Kevin Love. To wit:

I see a few things pretty clearly in this chart:

1. You don't want to help off of Martin, Adebayo, or Strus. All have a good track record of good shooting, and Martin and Strus are shooting much better right now than they did in the regular season.
2. Cheating off of Lowry and Robinson are closer 50/50 calls. With Robinson, it depends on who you think he is – the guy who shot .328 from three in the regular season, or the guy who's shooting .426 in the playoffs. The .426 is hot enough that I'm concerned about leaving him wide open. With Lowry, he could be 0-for-17, and then drill two backbreaking threes in the fourth quarter. You might get away with cheating off of these guys a few times, but I wouldn't make a habit of it.
3. The guys you want to cheat off of are Love and Vincent. They're both serviceable players, and I have a lot of respect for both, but if my choices are letting Jimmy Butler shoot or one of these guys, I'm picking these two guys every single time. They are shooting demonstrably worse than the other six guys in the playoffs, and their regular-season eFG%'s were well below those of Adebayo, Martin, and Strus.

The Celtics are more than capable of meeting this challenge, but to me, this is the main challenge of the series: contain Butler, and do so specifically by keeping him off the free throw line. There are mini quests surrounding this main quest – like I said above, I don't want to see Robinson get hot from three. I want to keep Adebayo off the offensive glass. Adebayo's 2.8 offensive rebounds per game in these playoffs are second among guys still playing to only Nikola Jokić. I want the C's to take care of the ball, something that should be easier with Oladipo and PJ Tucker gone (they combined for 18 of Miami's 58 steals in last year's Finals). But so much of what Miami wants to do flows from Butler's greatness. He's the key to everything.

In their 11 playoff games thus far, the Heat have had a player score 25+ points seven times. All seven times, that player was Jimmy Butler. Stop Butler, and you win this series. It sounds elementary, but the Heat have proven pretty conclusively that without Tyler Herro, their only other offensive gameplan is randomness. Over seven games that won't be enough of a plan B to beat Boston.

Celtics in 6.