Looking at Al Horford on the Warriors

If you've been following this summer's NBA wheelings and dealings, you know that it's likely that the Celtics are going to lose Al Horford to the Golden State Warriors. Brad Stevens characterized it as "unlikely" that Big Al returns the other day when he spoke to the media. But Horford hasn't signed yet. Yesterday, my suspicions were confirmed in a couple of places as to why that is. From Marc Stein's "The Stein Line" newsletter (to which I am happily a paid subscriber):

Numerous rival teams continue to regard Golden State as the overwhelming favorite to sign both Al Horford and Melton ... while the Warriors continue to navigate the complicated restricted free agency of Jonathan Kuminga. 

While I have been speculating that Horford's situation is tied to Kuminga's situation, I had not seen this mentioned anywhere before yesterday. Hoops Rumors explains why that is important:

Golden State already has over $170MM in guaranteed money on its books for nine players, so the outcome of Jonathan Kuminga‘s free agency will likely dictate what sort of offers the club can make to Horford and Melton.

Signing either of those veteran free agents with the $5.7MM taxpayer mid-level exception likely won’t happen until there’s a resolution on Kuminga, since using that exception would hard-cap the Warriors at the $207.8MM second apron. That could open the door for a rival team to find a way to give Kuminga an offer sheet featuring a starting salary too high for Golden State to match without cost-cutting moves.

The Warriors' entire offseason is being dominated by Kuminga, in other words. Currently, Golden State only has 10 players under contract, per Spotrac, and one of those players is on a two-way contract (Jackson Rowe – who played a grand total of 52 minutes for the 2024-2025 Warriors). They already lost Kevon Looney to the New Orleans Pelicans. Another of their free agents, Gary Payton II, may be in the same boat as Horford and De'Anthony Melton – waiting on Kuminga.

In other words, it has not been a banner offseason so far for the Warriors. As the Celtics have found out, that can become your reality when you are paying two players $50+M (Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler / Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown), and another over $20M (Draymond Green / Derrick White). The situations aren't mirror images – the Celtics have 16 players under contract, and also have an additional $20+M player on the roster in Anfernee Simons. But they're close enough that the Warriors are having to do cap gymnastics. And as such, this could all fall apart. But let's put that aside for the moment and consider why Big Al would want to be there at all.

Playing with Stephen Curry Sounds Like Fun

Any reason for playing with Golden State has to start here. Curry makes basketball fun (unless you're rooting for the team he's playing against), and if you're making a list of reasons to keep playing NBA basketball at age 39, fun should probably be at the top of your list.

The Warriors Need Him

The Warriors primarily played four different players at center last season – Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and Quentin Post. Three of them can't shoot three's at all, and none of them could shoot them when it mattered:

Now, not all of these minutes were center minutes, to be clear. Green, in particular, played other positions, and there were times when two of these players were on the court at the same time. But you can see the contrast here. The three-point percentages for both Green and Post shriveled and died in the postseason. The Warriors needed better production from this position.

The Warriors used to be willing to live with Draymond's lack of shooting because he was always on the court, and the other things he does were too important. In the five postseasons from 2014-2015 through 2018-2019, Green averaged 37.8 minutes per game, and that would often go up in the Finals – he averaged 40+ minutes per game in the 2016 Finals (40.0), 2018 Finals (41.3), and 2019 Finals (41.3). But those days are gone a), and b) the three-point shot is even more prominent than it was from 2014-2019. In the 2022 Finals, he averaged 36.2 minutes per game, and hasn't averaged more than 32.8 in any other series this decade. In other words, the Warriors need someone who can complement Green when he's on the court, and capably fill his minutes when he's not. Enter Al.

Horford hit 114 regular season three's in 1,659 minutes, at a .363 clip. Most importantly, there was no drop off in the playoffs, as he hit 40 percent of his playoff three's (14 for 35). Ever since Al saw his playoff numbers drop in 2022-2023, the Celtics were good about limiting his regular-season minutes to keep him fresh for the playoffs. He's the perfect frontcourt partner for Green.

Steve Kerr Knows How to Manage Minutes

One of the things Kerr is best at is managing minutes. As I discussed above, he has done so with Green, and he has especially done so with Curry. He will do the same for Butler, and would do the same for Horford. And as good a job as Joe Mazzulla did with managing Horford the past two seasons, Kerr would almost certainly do a better job, because he doesn't have the emotional attachment to Horford that Mazzulla and the C's did.

Personally, I think it's laughable to think that four 36-39 year olds can make it through four playoff rounds in this new depth-centric version of the NBA, particularly when two of the four (Butler and Curry) didn't even come close last season. Butler got hurt in the first round, and Curry in the second. But if anyone can manage their minutes properly to give them a chance at doing so, it's Kerr. The only two players he's proven he can't manage minutes correctly for are Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum.

So Why Isn't This a Done Deal Yet?

Money

If this arrangement is so kismet, why haven't the Warriors locked in Horford yet? You have to believe it comes down to money. The Celtics are patiently waiting in the wings for Horford. While the team technically has a full roster, if Horford is willing to sign for the veteran's minimum, the team could easily pay someone in second-round draft picks to take Xavier Tillman Sr. off their hands. If it turns out that Golden State can only offer the minimum, Horford has the C's as a back-up plan.

If Kuminga ends up back on the Warriors, that would be the first obstacle to the Warriors bringing in Horford. Per Hoops Rumors, Kuminga would make a minimum of ~$8M if he can't come to an agreement and just signs his qualifying offer. He obviously wants far more than that – there have been reports that he wants $20M-$30M per season. That sort of contract hasn't materialized and may not materialize. The Warriors are willing to wait him out while he attempts to find such a contract, and seemingly have convinced Horford, Melton, and Payton to wait along with them. But there's still a chance it doesn't go the way the Warriors want it to go, and of the those three free agents, you have to figure that Horford is the lowest priority for Golden State, based on one very simple reason.

Age

De'Anthony Melton is 27. Gary Payton II is 32. Again, Horford is 39. If you pencil Horford into the starting lineup, it's a lineup with Stephen Curry (age 37), Jimmy Butler (35, turns 36 before training camp), and Draymond Green (35, turns 36 before the playoffs). That's a very, very old foursome, and all of them missed at least 12 games last season. Curry played the most of the four in the regular season, but then got hurt in the playoffs. Critically, it was the kind of soft-tissue injury he's never experienced before, which could be a one-off, or it could be a harbinger of injuries to come.

So if you're the Warriors and you're having to make choices on who to sign, you might lean toward the younger players, even given how great a fit Horford would be on the court, because the first step is being available to play on the court.

Paper vs. Reality

There is also the matter of things looking like a fit on paper, and them actually being a fit in reality. You know what other situation seemed like a great fit on paper for Al Horford? Signing with the 76ers to play with Joel Embiid. Horford was supposed to be the second big who took rebounding pressure off of Embiid on defense, and the outlet valve who took pressure off of him on offense. It didn't happen that way, and Horford and his big contract were exiled to a still-rebuilding Oklahoma City until Brad Stevens rescued him.

Big Al can hit three pointers and play solid defense all the live long day, and as we discussed above, that is a hand in glove fit for the Warriors. But you know what Al is not great at doing at this stage of his career? Running. The Warriors operate at a faster pace than the Celtics, for starters:

Since Horford returned to the Celtics, Boston hasn't had a faster Pace than Golden State, and in fact Boston's fastest Pace of the four seasons (98.5) is just a hair above Golden State's slowest (98.4).

The Warriors may move slower this season. Call it the Jimmy Butler Effect. The Warriors Pace in last year's playoffs was 93.9. But a) that was still faster than the Celtics (a glacial 91.5), and b) everyone was slower in the playoffs. The league average Pace was 98.8 in the regular season, and 95.6 in the playoffs.

What's more, the Warriors also move around more in general. Their motion offense calls for a lot of running even in when in the half court. There's a pretty good chance that Al Horford is just not going to be great in that kind of offense, and there's only so much Kerr is going to modify it for Horford, when the goal is always to set things up for Curry. So perhaps Big Al will look at all that running and surmise that he's too old for that shit.

Bottom Line

In the end, I'm likely wishcasting, hoping against hope that Big Al will come back to the Celtics. The Warriors seemingly have this all lined up, and it seems like they've promised Horford a specific dollar value that is at least double what the Celtics can offer, and that this is more or less a done deal. Curry slipped and said as much a few days ago. But I'm going to keep hoping against hope anyway. I've been refreshing Hoops Rumors, Blue Sky, Mass Live, and the Globe like every hour since free agency started hoping for good news. None has come yet, but fingers crossed.

I'm not in the proper head space to talk about losing Al just yet, because he has meant so much to the franchise, and I'm certainly not in the proper head space to contemplate him signing with to play with the two guys who are responsible for Boston's three most hurtful playoff defeats of the past half-decade (if not longer). If he does leave, I'll address it then. For now, let's just watch the moment when Al Horford officially ended Giannis Antetokounmpo's brief reign as the best player alive:

(Don't forget, Giannis hasn't won a playoff series since, and the only reason the Bucks won another game in that series after this one was because Jrue Holiday stole Marcus Smart's lunch money at the end of Game 5.)

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I haven't been writing much lately, but I still have several ideas queued up – at least eight. Hopefully, I'll be writing more soon! Thanks, as always, for reading my nonsense. :-)