Did the Knicks Improve?

Earlier today it was reported that the Knicks traded RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to the Raptors in exchange for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, and Malachi Flynn. This is an incredibly interesting trade for a number of reasons, but I want to focus on the Knicks. I don't think it's wise to talk about the Raptors just yet, because I think they're going to look radically different in a coupe of months, and so we can wait until after the trade deadline to talk about them. On the other hand, the Knicks gained a lot of clarity today.

There are rumblings that the Knicks may not be done after this trade, but for now, they have a clear demarcation among their top seven guys for the rest of the season:

• People allowed to dribble: Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle
• People allowed to be in the paint: Isaiah Hartenstein
• People who will stand around until someone passes to them: OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Quentin Grimes, Donte DiVencenzo

I cut it off at seven, because I honestly don't think anyone else on this roster as currently constituted will play crunch-time minutes outside of health/foul concerns. Achiuwa should get minutes over the corpse formerly known as Taj Gibson, but Gibson is a "Thibs Guy," and if there's one thing you can count on coach Tom Thibodeau to do, it's to play his guys if he has a comfort level with him. He clearly has that in Gibson. Jericho Sims may play when healthy, but "Jericho Sims" and "healthy" aren't exactly a super-overlapping Venn diagram. But let's say one of them finds the backup center minutes eventually. Beyond that, you have Flynn, who barely played on the Raptors and isn't any good, and Evan Fournier, who Thibs is still refusing to play.

This is very clarifying, but it leaves a few questions.

How do they score when Brunson and/or Randle have an off night?

One of the things that RJ Barrett brought to this Knicks team was an ability to create shots for himself. He was able to get into the paint at will, and either get shots close to the hoop or kick it out to a teammate at the perimeter. Getting into the paint is the bigger thing though. More than half of Anunoby's shots are threes. Conversely, more than half of Barrett's shots came from 0-10 feet, compared to less than 40% for Anunoby. Perhaps there will be room in the New York offense for Anunoby to assume more of that ball handling role, but he certainly didn't play that role in Toronto. Last night against the Celtics, Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, and Dennis Schroder were the players who handled the ball and initiated the offense. Anunoby stood in the corner, and was invisible for much of the night.

Brunson and Randle are both capable of going nuclear, but they're also both capable of going ice cold. The Knicks usually lose those games. In their defense, if they were already losing those games, then trading away Barrett and Quickley shouldn't hurt all that much, but the lack of a third ball handler could make it a lot easier for the defense to key on Brunson and Randle. If you can shut just one of them down, you can make things very difficult on the Knicks. Barrett and Quickley helped make the offense more three dimensional. Josh Hart undoubtedly wants to soak up some of that playmaking, but that wouldn't be the way I'd go. It's certainly not going to come from Quentin Grimes (77% of his shots this season are threes) and Donte DiVencenzo (73.7%).

Is OG Anunoby Better Than RJ Barrett?

This is to me, the crux of the trade. Anunoby is a more efficient shooter, and at 26 is older, and presumably wiser, as he's three years older. And I'm sure most people will label him an NBA champion, which he technically is. But don't forget, the Raptors won in 2019 without him. Anunoby had an emergency appendectomy just before the playoffs started, and while he was healthy enough to dress for the NBA Finals, he never got into a game. In fact, while Anunoby has played 27 playoff games to Barrett's 16, he's scored just 13 more points in the playoffs than has Barrett.

Anunoby is a lower-usage player on offense who has generated more steals and blocks. He is a more efficient shooter, certainly. But he is also a more one-dimensional scorer. More frightening is that advanced stats paint him as a player who has become much less efficient over the past couple of years. By PER, Anunoby's best season was 2020-21, when he was 23.

In the three seasons since, he's trended downward, and this season is currently his third-worst in his seven pro seasons. Stats like Win Shares/48 and VORP paint the same picture. Conversely, Barrett is having his best season by PER. Perhaps some of Anunoby's downturn has been frustration with his role, both in present and future, as it has looked like Toronto hasn't wanted him for some time. But that also begs the question of why didn't they. If he's such a useful player who can be a low-usage 3-and-D player, he should fit anywhere.

Are the Knicks Now Too Predictable?

This may be just a way of rephrasing the first question, but right now, it seems like the Knicks may not have another gear. They are going to try to grind you into dust defensively, and lean on Brunson, Randle, and three-point shooting. When that works, it'll work well. But as a Celtics fan who watched his team consistently have no answers the past couple of years when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been off, to this year's team that has a more confident and assertive Derrick White, plus Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday – all of whom are great at creating for themselves off the dribble – it's a world of difference. It makes the Celtics so much less predictable.

Milwaukee has the same thing with Giannis, Damian Lillard, and Khris Middleton, and even Brook Lopez can put it on the floor once in awhile. Miami has it with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. may be the fourth guy come playoff time. Duncan Robinson is capable at times as well. And Tobias Harris is more than capable of being the third ball handler in Philly behind Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. I don't think any of the Knicks other main players now, Anunoby included, rise to Harris', Herro's, or Middleton's ability to create their own shots, to say nothing of how they stack up with Boston in that respect.

When Barrett's drives had to be respected, and when Quickley was cooking, it made it harder to pin down New York's offense. Now, they are very reliant on Brunson and Randle being amazing. They are amazing players, so it's not the worst strategy, it just is a lot more transparent, unless you're of the belief that one of Anunoby or Grimes has the creation skills necessary to step up and be effective when it matters. Finally, the way the Knicks are looking, their strategy is a lot more effective when you have both Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson crashing the glass for 48 minutes. More will be asked of Randle as a rebounder now, and that's not entirely fair to him.

Are the Knicks Done?

I find that hard to believe. In case it isn't clear, I think they need a third ball handler. And as much as I have been a Precious Achiuwa believer in the past, if he can't step up into that backup center role, they'll need to find a better option than Achiuwa/Gibson/Sims for the playoff push. Bill Simmons suggested that the Knicks might trade for Jordan Clarkson. He'd be a good fit, a more grown up, under control version of Quickley. The question is would you really want to give up a first-round pick for him? Is he what brings you a championship this season? Or are they going to keep their draft picks to take a swing for the fences next summer? Go as far as they can this season with this group, knowing they need Robinson for a real title run, making a championship this season a moot point. We'll see.

What I do know is that as of this moment, I am slightly less bullish on the Knicks than I was last night or at the start of the season, when I predicted them to be third in the East. Maybe I'm too much of a believer in Quickley. Given how he torched the Celtics, I have to say I'm glad he's been shipped north of the border to a team that looks like it won't contend at all this season. But while OG Anunoby may raise New York's floor, I don't think he raises their ceiling.