Key Round One Matchups & Predictions (Plus My Awards Ballot)

In my last piece, I said I wanted to write about how Jaylen Brown was better than Luka Dončić this season, because that's my general feeling. That feeling is fed by the 2024 NBA Finals, when JB embarrassed Luka. It was fed by the game in LA this season when JB again embarrassed Luka in what was one of Luka's five worst games of the season (by game score). It was fed by my belief that JB is a far superior defender, and leveled up on offense this season. And it was fed by my belief that JB played way more than Luka did. Turns out, the last part is just not true. Despite playing seven more games, JB only played an additional 154 minutes. And while I think JB is still more valuable overall than Luka, and would always take him over Luka in a game that matters, there isn't much statistical evidence for me to lean on when making the argument that JB is better than Luka individually, because Luka is just so gifted offensively. So it goes.

I'll drop my awards picks in at the bottom of this piece. I'm so tired of awards season talk I don't really want to go into my choices much, but I want to have them for the record. Let's talk playoffs instead!

In light of doing full breakdowns, which you don't really need from me, as you can get them anywhere, I thought I'd take a look at one specific matchup for each series, in no particular order. Each matchup is paired with a series prediction.

Tyrese Maxey vs. The Limits of a Human Body

In the play-in game, Tyrese Maxey played 42 minutes and 24 seconds. As I mentioned in my last piece, Maxey's minutes load was pretty legendary thanks to the lunacy of his coach. On a per game level there were 305 instances of a player playing 40+ minutes in a regulation game this season. Only four players accounted for 10+ of those 305 instances: Maxey (20), Amen Thompson (20), VJ Edgecombe (11), and Austin Reaves (11). Two of the four were Sixers. Crazy.

I don't think the Sixers have much chance of pulling off an upset, but if they do, it's only because of Maxey. And while Maxey usually has a lot of success against the C's, my question is is he going to be right enough to do damage. Bobby Krivitsky pointed out the other day that Maxey's shooting has been worse since his finger injury, and I have to wonder if/when the minutes will catch up to him.

Prediction: The C's usually find a way to lose one game, often when the other team bombs away from three, but Philly doesn't really do that too well. Celtics in 4.

Jalen Brunson vs. CJ McCollum

This is a matchup that is decidedly in New York's favor, but it's the one that is most pivotal. Atlanta literally doesn't have a center, so Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson are going to absolutely obliterate Atlanta in the paint. So their only chance is McCollum hooking himself up to the rejuvenation machine and playing like he did in his late 20's. I don't see it, and I think Atlanta is really thin. Also, they took the coward's way out in the final regular season game, and cowardice is rarely rewarded.

Prediction: Atlanta is pesky defensively, and the Knicks will fumble around a little bit, but the Knicks are not only deeper, but the Hawks don't match up well with New York's best players. Knicks in 6.

James Harden vs. Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes is not a lock to be the primary defender against James Harden. But I think if he is, the Raptors have a chance to pull off the upset. Barnes has the length, quickness, discipline, and tenacity to shut down Harden, or at least prevent him from getting cheap free throws. And on the other end, Harden doesn't want any part of banging in the paint with Barnes. I'm sure the Cavs would try to switch him out of that matchup, but if Barnes is covering Harden, and Harden gets stuck on him on the other end, that'd be a big advantage for Toronto.

Prediction: Both teams have quality depth, but I think the pieces fit better for Toronto. I have been thinking all week that this is the best chance we have for a round one upset, but ultimately I don't quite have the cobbles (whatever those are). Cavs in 7.

Ausar Thompson vs. Franz Wagner

Orlando is offensively challenged in the best of times. And it is not the best of times, because Franz Wagner is still not right physically. He briefly limped out of both the final regular-season game in Boston and the first play-in game in Philly. The Magic probably have no chance to win this series, but if they're going to have any chance, they need Wagner to be the guy who averaged 21.3 points per game on .479/.365/.828 shooting before the All-Star break, instead of the guy who averaged 17.2 points per game on .494/.250/.792 shooting after it. Except now, he's going to have to deal with one of the best defenders in the NBA in Ausar Thompson.

Prediction: I'd really like to say I believe Orlando could take two games in this series, because perhaps if they do, the Magic will be lulled into foolishly giving Jamahl Mosley another season as head coach. But I don't. Pistons in 4.

Jamal Murray vs. Ayo Dosunmu

When Minnesota beat Denver two seasons ago, Jaden McDaniels was often on Murray. Perhaps that'll be the case this time around. Anthony Edwards may get some time on him too. But I think it's more likely they give Ant a lower leverage assignment, and that McDaniels needs to be on the bigger guys in Aaron Gordon and maybe even Nikola Jokić. Either way, I think Dosunmu is going to have to help out on Murray. And while Dosunmu is a talented player (look below, he's on my 6th Man of the Year ballot), he's not exactly known as an impact defender.

Murray is playing better than ever, and if Minnesota is going to have any chance of winning, they'll need to contain him, because it seems pretty clear that this version of the T'Wolves can't contain Jokić. Dosunmu is an interesting choice for the assignment, because on the other end, Dosunmu moves so fast, he might wear Murray out a little.

Prediction: I always find myself in the predicament of wanting to believe in the Wolves but never quite having the confidence to do so. That hasn't changed. They should have kept Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luka Garza and let Naz Reid walk. Nuggets in 5.

Alperen Şengün vs. DeAndre Ayton

I posted on BlueSky the other day that Paolo Banchero may be the most overrated player of this decade. Another candidate for that mantle is Alperen Şengün. I don't even remotely believe in Şengün, and with Kevin Durant suddenly and predictably ailing after a season of playing a bunch of minutes (he finished second in minutes played this season for some strange reason), the Rockets' sure-fire injury advantage over the Lakers isn't looking so sure-fire anymore. So they're going to need Şengün to step up. They needed that last season too, but the big guy went the other way instead – he was just one of three big men (6'11" or taller) to shoot less than .500 on two-point field goals in the playoffs, and the other two were more regularly spacing the floor and taking threes, leaving Şengün standing sadly alone in this respect.

Given his lack of shooting prowess, you don't need a ton of defensive resistance to make his life difficult, which is good for DeAndre Ayton, because he's only capable of offering so much resistance.

Prediction: This is LeBron James' "Forgot About Dre" moment. Everyone is writing off the Lakers with both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves out. Some people never learn, I suppose. LeBron coaxes this to 2-2, and then they get Luka back. Ime Udoka gets fired on the bus ride to the airport after Game 7. Lakers in 7.

Stephon Castle vs. Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija is Portland's only reliable offense. Unfortunately for him, Stephon Castle can defend him well without fouling and without needing a double team.

Prediction: Portland had a winning season and reached the playoffs for the first time in five seasons despite seeing their coach arrested/suspended on the eve of the season, and seeing their backcourt (just 53 games played for Jrue Holiday, 50 for Shaedon Sharpe, and 30 for Scoot Henderson, not to mention zero for Damian Lillard) ravaged by injury. That is Portland's victory. The needle is still pointing up for them, but San Antonio is just going to be too much. Spurs in 5.

Jalen Williams vs. Rust

I'm writing this while the Suns-Warriors game is at halftime, but it doesn't really matter who the opponent is. What matters is if Jalen Williams can play himself into a rhythm ahead of round two. He hasn't played 30+ minutes in consecutive games since mid-January. And while part of that down the stretch may have been because the Thunder didn't really need him to – and they may not need him to in round one either! – it'd still be nice to see him do it. They're going to need him eventually.

Prediction: If the Warriors pull out the game, they may get one game off of OKC – one final Steph Curry classic. But I doubt it. Thunder in 4.

A chalky round one may not make for the most exciting couple of weeks, but it should lead to an absolutely epic round two. Here's hoping!

2025-2026 NBA Awards

Obviously, I don't have an awards vote, but here's how I would do it. For the record, I think it's ridiculous that Luka and Cade were deemed eligible and Anthony Edwards wasn't. The whole thing is a farce. If Ant had been eligible, I would have put him second-team All-NBA, and knocked Jalen Johnson back to third team and Kevin Durant off my ballot altogether.

• MVP: 1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 2. Victor Wembanyama, 3. Jaylen Brown, 4. Nikola Jokić, 5. Cade Cunningham
• Defensive Player of the Year: 1. Wemby, 2. Derrick White, 3. Scottie Barnes
• Rookie of the Year: 1. Cooper Flagg, 2. Kon Knueppel, 3. VJ Edgecombe
• Most Improved Player: 1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, 2. Neemias Queta, 3. Jalen Duren
• 6th Man of the Year: 1. Keldon Johnson, 2. Ayo Dosunmu, 3. Sandro Mamukelashvili
• Coach of the Year: 1. Joe Mazzulla, 2. JB Bickerstaff, 3. Mitch Johnson
• All-NBA 1st team: SGA, Wemby, JB, Jokić, Luka Dončić 
• All-NBA 2nd team: Cunningham, Tyrese Maxey, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Duren, Jalen Johnson
• All-NBA 3rd team: Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jamal Murray, Chet Holmgren, Kevin Durant
• All-Defense 1st team: Wemby, White, Barnes, Ausar Thompson, Cason Wallace
• All-Defense 2nd team: Holmgren, OG Anunoby, Stephon Castle, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylen Brown
• All-Rookie 1st team: Flagg, Knueppel, Edgecombe, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey
• All-Rookie 2nd team: Derik Queen, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Sion James, Colin Murray-Boyles, Hugo González