Preferred Eastern Conference Matchups

Finally, we're back. This is the moment in the NBA calendar when things took a sharp turn south last season, as the Celtics dropped the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals to Miami. This is when the Celtics really need to put their stamp on this playoff run, and it starts by winning both Games 1 and 2 here in Boston. I believe they will.

I want to take a look at my preferences for matchups, but before I do that, let's set the scene a little. This postseason, the Pacers have consistently used a nine-man rotation. Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner have started all 13 games. T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, and Obi Toppin are the first-wave bench players, and have all averaged 19 minutes off the bench. Isaiah Jackson is the last reserve, usually appearing toward the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second quarter.

How the Celtics play defense is the variable that interests me most in this series, because I feel that the C's didn't leverage their defenders properly in some instances against them in the regular season. And because Indiana is fairly regimented about their players' minutes and sub patterns, it gives us an opportunity to say who should match up with whom on Boston's side. For our purposes here, I'm assuming Kristaps Porzingis is out for the entire series. Until he's back, he's not back, and this type of fast-paced series isn't exactly a great matchup for him in general, but especially with him coming off a calf injury.

These are ranked by how strongly I feel about them:

• Derrick White on Tyrese Haliburton: On Dec. 4th, the Celtics lost to the Pacers in the In-Season Tournament. In that game, the Pacers were super motivated and pumped up, and Tyrese Haliburton – who was really on one back in December – lit up Jrue Holiday. I detailed it here. Shortly after, the C's would start leaning on Holiday more on bigger players, and less on fast, twitchy players. I don't know that they need to do that in this series, but I think it is an imperative that they keep Holiday off of Haliburton. That assignment should go to Derrick White. White is happiest when he is flying around and making things happen, and is the perfect matchup for Haliburton.
• Payton Pritchard on TJ McConnell: That aforementioned game was the first time the Celtics lost to the Pacers this season. The second time they lost, their run was keyed by TJ McConnell. He had 12 points, seven assists, and two steals in 24 minutes, and honestly, the stat line doesn't seem as special as my memory of it. He seemed like he was everywhere in that game, and these playoffs have provided plenty of flashback moments. Luckily, the C's have the perfect player to keep him in check in Payton Pritchard. In general, I don't believe in matching up bench guys, but in this series, the C's need to make sure that Pritchard is on the court any time McConnell is on the court.
• Al Horford on Myles Turner: Center on center is fairly obvious, but one thing I want to note here is that I think this should be a pretty strict focus. Horford should only play when Turner plays. One, Turner's minutes are fairly regimented. He never played more than 37 minutes in the regular season, and the only time in 13 playoff games he has played more than 37 minutes was Game 3 vs. Milwaukee, which went into overtime. In addition, the other players Horford would primarily match up with are Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin, and they are more spindly and quick, not great matchups for him. I don't worry about him on Haliburton or Nembhard in rotation – if Big Al can squelch Darius Garland, he can handle those two. I think people are underestimating just how badly Horford wants his first championship. Nevertheless, staying glued to Turner gives him the best chance at success.
• Jayson Tatum on Aaron Nesmith: There's a couple of reasons here. One, Tatum usually excels at these "little brother" matchups. Two, the Pacers are probably going to put Nesmith on Tatum, so it's simpler to just keep same-same. Third, sometimes the C's like to Andrew Nembhard is just as much of a bulldog as Nesmith, and has the ball in his hands more often. Nesmith tends to have a Marcus Smart-like tendency to find the ball in his hands at the end of shot clocks, and works hard to drive and score in those situations, but in general, the Pacers seem to prefer for him to catch and shoot, and that's going to make him Tatum's easiest defensive assignment. Finally, on both sides of the ball, Nesmith gets very little respect from the refs, and putting Tatum on him could exacerbate that and get Nesmith in some early foul trouble. I think if the C's want to go small in this series, Tatum could also handle Turner in the center role for short stints.
• Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday on Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard: I think there will be a lot of calls to put Holiday on Pascal Siakam, but let's not forget the 2020 second round, when Jaylen Brown stole Siakam's soul. In the five series' prior to that one, starting with 2019's first round, Siakam averaged 19.2 points on .462 shooting (.280 from three) across 28 games. In the seven games vs. Boston in the second round, he averaged just 14.9 points on .382 shooting (.125 from three). I wanted to go back and watch highlights to confirm, but in my memory it was Brown who was matched up on him in that series. I think Jaylen will handle the assignment well, and I think it's a pivotal battle for the series. Either way, I think Nembhard requires a potent defender, and luckily both players are.
• Luke Kornet on Isaiah Jackson: This is going to be a running series, and as such I think Kornet needs to play less. Jackson's 10 minutes per game are a much better fit than the 14.6 minutes Kornet averaged against the Cavs. I was often holding my breath in those minutes, because they were when Donovan Mitchell and Garland really seemed to get cooking by getting Kornet into the action. Kornet did well in Game 1 with a +12, possibly because Cleveland was tired or hadn't thought about him, but in the final four games he was a -12, +1, -4, and -9. That's a -24 across four games if you're scoring at home, and I think it will be worse against Indiana, because their offense is much better than Cleveland's.
• Oshae Brissett vs. Obi Toppin: Aaron Nesmith always feels a good dose of motivation to get back at Boston in these series', and honestly, rightfully so. The C's buried him on the bench and traded him, and he was always deserving of more playing time. If I'm Oshae Brissett, I feel the same way about Indiana. His role has essentially been filled by Obi Toppin this season. Toppin shoots better than Brissett does, so I'm not saying Indiana was wrong, but like McConnell, Toppin has a motor that doesn't quit, and I think it would be unwise to leave a starter on him, or Sam Hauser. Toppin wants to run. So does Brissett. We don't need Brissett to score, but I think it's time to dust him off in this series and have him hound Toppin.
• Sam Hauser on Ben Sheppard: Whether Brissett plays or not, I'm worried that Slam Hauser aka Ham Sauser is going to get played out of this series. He's down from 22.0 minutes in the regular season to 14.6 in the playoffs, and the playoff split was 17.1 vs. Miami and 12.2 vs. Cleveland. I think Cleveland wasn't a great matchup for him because Garland is so fast. I don't think that problem exists in this series because Haliburton has not been turning on the jets as much post-hamstring injury. And the player who fits the matchup best for Hauser is Sheppard. Hauser could also see some time on Siakam or Nesmith, with Tatum or Brown getting a breather on Sheppard, but I think Hauser's best chance for success is against Sheppard.

Always Read Howard Bryant

Author Howard Bryant, whose book Shut Out is the best and most essential book ever written about the Boston Red Sox (all his other books are pretty great, too), is up today on ESPN.com with a great piece on what defines toughness and what these Celtics still need to prove. Find and read it here.