I Love Neemias Queta And Other Things I Know
It's great to see players get better. It doesn't always happen, and it certainly isn't guaranteed. Some guys enter the league as good as they're going to be, and so many never find the right fit and wash out of the NBA too soon. The Celtics have been very blessed to see the progressions of not just Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but also Derrick White, Sam Hauser, and Payton Pritchard in recent years. They're adding another notch in their development belt with Neemias Queta.
I've long been bullish on Queta. I advocated for him starting during the preseason. That particular piece was more about Al Horford than it was about Queta, because in truth, it seemed like a farfetched suggestion at that point. Queta averaged just under 12 minutes in the 28 games he played for the C's last regular season, and he logged just 13 total minutes in the three playoff games he played. All of those minutes were logged in garbage time.
Still, Queta pretty immediately had a presence last season, such that it was immediately questioned why the Sacramento Kings let him go after the 2022-23 season. It was a big story when the team guaranteed his contract so that he would be eligible for the postseason roster. Brad Stevens found another diamond in the rough, and Joe Mazzulla and his coaching staff have been hard at work polishing it. Queta has now scored in double figures in four of the seven games in which he's played at least 10 minutes, and in six of those seven, he's grabbed at least six rebounds. Most importantly, he's been a hugely positive presence on the floor, particularly on the defensive end. He is altering shots and blocking shots, and his Net Rating right now is the best on the team, better than even Jayson Tatum and Derrick White, who habitually excel in that category.
In my mind, the question is no longer "Can Neemias Queta play?," but rather, "how do they give him enough minutes to keep developing?" Right now, it's no problem. He can take the lion's share of minutes that would go to Kristaps Porzingis. We'll see tomorrow against Milwaukee, but he has seemingly passed Xavier Tillman Sr. in the rotation. Tillman got the start last night vs. Brooklyn, but after he missed his first three three's (none of which looked particularly good), Tillman sat and didn't play again. Queta began the third quarter on the floor with the other starters.
It's important to feed Queta minutes now. He is getting better each night. Progress is not linear, but he's already succeeding in fouling less, and he made a couple of great reads on kick-out passes, particularly in the first quarter to Sam Hauser. Brian Scalabrine was all over it on the call, and I noticed it too. That is just not a pass Queta would have made a week ago.
For a couple of years, the big thing nagging at this team's depth was how would they replace Al Horford when he retired. Porzingis is great, but the best ability is availability, and that has long been an ability that has evaded Porzingis. Horford is still playing at a high level, but it won't continue forever. I believe that Queta is the guy who can fill those shoes, so much so that he may usurp Horford in the center role this season. Brian Robb wrote about it the other day, but it's getting more challenging for Horford to constantly succeed in the center role. I can see a future where Horford gets more minutes at wing rather than at center, with Queta serving as Porzingis' primary backup. Perhaps the latter won't happen until Big Al retires, but either way, I'm a lot less worried about life after Big Al than I was at this time last year.
I Was Wrong About Some Things, Particularly the Cavs
It seems that I misread the Eastern Conference landscape heading into this season. Something is eating at Tyrese Haliburton, as he is a shell of the guy we saw last year. I was too deferential to the past successes of Joel Embiid, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and put all of their teams too high in the pecking order. Those are understandable mistakes, but I badly, badly misread the Cavs. New coach Kenny Atkinson is proving once again that good coaching is super, super important. This team is cooking in a way that it never has before. In the past, a lot of their success came with some of their core four injured, allowing the others to fill up the box score at will. That is not what's happening now.
The Cleveland defense isn't special right now, but it doesn't have to be when they're scoring with the prowess that they are. What I will be interested in watching is if their record comes back down to earth if their offense does, or will they tighten the screws on defense to compensate. The Celtics have a pretty incredible offense, scoring 120.9 points per game, and the Cavs are smashing that right now – they're at 124.5. So they can come back to earth a little and still be an elite team. How elite will be the question. But 10-game winning streaks need to be respected, and given how the East has shaken out so far, it would take some truly bad luck for them to slip all the way back to the eighth seed. Mea culpa!
The West is pretty chaotic still, but it is getting there. The Suns have pulled out a lot of close games thus far thanks to the predictable wizardry of Kevin Durant, but just as predictably, he's hurt again. So I expect they'll come back down to earth a little bit. The Nuggets found their level again after some early struggles, and join the Thunder and Timberwolves in the top four where I pegged them. I haven't looked hard at the numbers, but in anecdotally checking box scores, coach Michael Malone seems to be playing his bench guys more. The Mavericks seem like they're doing poorly if you just judge by their 10th place standing, but one win puts them in a tie for sixth place with Memphis, and the Grizzlies have now added Ja Morant to their injury report. Just like last year, they're already without Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart.
The Warriors are an interesting case. My friend Guns, who is the only devoted Warriors fan I know, has been pretty upset with me for picking them 11th, and let me hear about it the other night after they beat the C's. I may have erred in putting them 11th instead of seventh, eighth, or ninth, but ultimately, I think the whole operation still rests with Stephen Curry, and he just can't go hard every night. He and the Dubs got up big time for the Celtics like they always do, and then walked into Cleveland two nights later dead on arrival. That's going to happen when your best player is careening toward 37 years old. It's now also an open question of how many minutes Curry can play each game. The Boston game was the only game thus far in which he's played more than 27 minutes, and he only played 34 minutes in the Boston game. Last season, he only logged fewer than 27 minutes five times in 74 regular-season games. It's already happened four times in six games this season. That's a worrying sign, and unfortunately for the Warriors, they don't get to play half of their games against New Orleans, Portland, Utah, and Washington like they have thus far.
Nick Nurse Is Still a Lunatic
Of course, the discretion from Steve Kerr isn't exactly the worst thing. The other side of the coin is what Nick Nurse is doing in Philly. Nick Nurse has a habit of running his players into the ground. Last season, he ran Tyrese Maxey into the ground in the middle of the season when he was hurt. From Feb. 11th:
Shooting worse, getting to the line less, turning it over more, and dishing out fewer assists. One of the best things about Maxey is how consistent he usually is. In that 42-game stretch, he was never a minus in more than two consecutive games. In these past four games, he's been a minus in every single one. And Maxey missed a game in that stretch, too.
Is it possible Maxey is just slumping without Embiid? Sure. It's also possible that he's still very hurt, and gamely trying to play through it because his coach is a lunatic.
Nurse has been back to his old tricks right away this season. Maxey logged at least 37:28 in each of the team's first seven games, topping 40 minutes in four of them, including 47:47 in their overtime win at Indiana. On Wednesday, he had played 31:34 of the possible 36 minutes when he limped off at the end of the third quarter. Now he'll miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury.
You'd think at some point that Nick Nurse would learn his lesson, and not habitually play his guys 40+ minutes in regular-season games. Maybe he has. Paul George only played 24 minutes Friday vs. the Lakers. But Philly lost that game, and is now in last place in the East at 1-7. The only other one-win team in the NBA is Utah, which is very clearly tanking to Capture The (Cooper) Flagg. We'll see if Nurse can maintain his cool and not run George and Joel Embiid into the ground with Maxey out, but I wouldn't hold my breath if I was a Philly fan. As I've said before, and will likely say again, Nick Nurse is a lunatic, and his habit of playing guys too many minutes makes him possibly the worst fit imaginable for Embiid.