I Hope the Celtics Are Watching Golden State

What's happened in Golden State the past two seasons and change is a little sad. They have vacillated between trying to plan for the future, to trying to win now, to not being sure about either path. This was frustrating right up until the Celtics won the NBA Finals a couple of months ago. "How could the C's have lost to a team that so immediately fell apart?" Now, their loss to Golden State in 2022 can be folded into the story as the learning experience it truly was, a step on their path to ultimate glory and vindication.

The Warriors, on the other hand, seemingly had little idea of what to make of the success that was their fourth championship. From the Jordan Poole contract, to jettisoning James Wiseman, to bringing in CP3, the Warriors have cycled through various strategies in the past two seasons, but this summer they were able to enter free agency with the ammunition needed to either re-sign Klay Thompson or get a similar star-level player to pair with Stephen Curry for one last hurrah. Except the Warriors have now done neither of those things, in large part because of the "success" of Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga. The Warriors seem to think they have two budding stars.

Today, Lauri Markkanen signed his big extension, putting a bow on the Warriors' offseason of hitting singles instead of swinging for the fences. Markannen's extension made him untradeable until after the 2024-2025 trade deadline in February, effectively giving him a one-year no-trade clause. Nice piece of business for him, but he could have been traded to Golden State if the Warriors were serious about improving.

The sticking point for the Warriors reportedly is that they did not want to part with both Podziemski and Kuminga. I find this amusing. Neither player is on any sort of All-Star trajectory in a stacked Western Conference, and the Warriors as constituted are not a contender. If they had traded the pair, and presumably Andrew Wiggins for salary-matching purposes, here's the lineup they could have fielded:

• Starting Five: Stephen Curry (G), De'Anthony Melton (G), Draymond Green (F), Lauri Markkanen (F), Trayce Jackson-Davis (C)
• Bench: Gary Payton II (G), Moses Moody (G), Kyle Anderson (F), Buddy Hield (F), Gui Santos (F), Kevon Looney (C)

This is a team with a clear starting lineup that has four solid defenders around the defensive liabilities that Curry presents. It also has a solid bench unit that features toughness, playmaking, and shooting. This is a contending team, with clear backups at each spot, and Markkanen is a PERFECT fit for the Warriors. Last season, 50 NBA players averaged at least 20 points per game. Just five of them did so with a Usage Percentage of 25.0 or less:

• Jimmy Butler (old, and...I'll generously say cantankerous)
• Tyrese Haliburton (rightfully not a trade candidate)
• CJ McCollum (old, hurt a lot, and plays the same position as Curry)
• Miles Bridges (scumbag who shouldn't even be in the NBA, and who Curry would never approve of being on his team)
• LAURI MARKKANEN

It's not just that Markkanen was available, not just that he's also the perfect player for Golden State, but also that he's just 27 years old. He's entering his prime, and he has enough leading-player energy to pick up the scoring load if Curry misses time or is having one of his more and more frequent off nights. To turn that down because you think Kuminga and Podziemski might blossom in a couple of years is the absolute definition of foolish. When this dynasty is over, it'll be over. From Michael Jordan to Tim Duncan to Larry Bird to Kobe Bryant, there are plenty of examples of teams that took years to recover when their superstars retired. Us Patriots fans are going through it right now in the wake of the Brady-Belichick Era. Neither Kuminga nor Podziemski is going to keep Golden State relevant without Curry.

Kuminga has played 4,528 regular-season minutes through his age-21 season, making him one of 99 players to clear 4,500. Seems like elite company, right? Unfortunately, it's more than a bit of a mixed bag. For every LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Kobe Bryant on this list, there's a Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Darius Miles. And that's the top of the list in minutes played. Kuminga resides right at the bottom of the list. Yes, Chris Webber is there, but Webber played college, and Kuminga didn't. Also in their neighborhood is Maurice Harkless, Sebastian Telfair, Justise Winslow, Elfrid Payton, and Zaza Pachulia. Solid players, just like Kuminga. I was particularly partial to Bassy Telfair, myself. But superstars they were not. Kuminga's success this season doesn't necessarily mean he is ascendant, it could just mean that the Warriors didn't have anyone better to give the ball to.

Curry managed to play 74 games last season, but in the prior two seasons he missed 44 games out of a possible 164, or ~27%. You have to go back to 2016-2017 to find the last season before the one we just had where he suited up for 70 games. And with his Olympics participation this summer, he's adding more miles on the odometer as he enters his age-36 season. In Curry's epic 10-year run (2013-2014 to present, but removing the 2019-2020 when he only played five games due to injury), he's averaged 11.02 Win Shares per season, per Basketball-Reference. There is just one player 6'3" or shorter in NBA history who has cleared that 11 WS bar in a season where they were 36 or older – John Stockton in 1999-2000. There are only 16 seasons where such a player cleared even close to half of that, at 5 WS, achieved by just nine players – Stockton, Chris Paul, Mike Conley, Steve Nash, Sam Cassell, Lenny Wilkens, Mark Jackson, Terry Porter, and Andre Miller.

Maybe Curry will defy time and be truly great for another few years. But if Curry's shooting in these Olympics is any indication, we're entering the end game with him. It would have been awesome to see him team up with Markkanen and make one last run. I loved Al Jefferson to death, but there wasn't a single person who missed him after he was sent off in the Kevin Garnett trade. Jefferson seems like a pretty great corollary for Kuminga – Jefferson had also averaged 16 points per game in a season for the first time in his third season. Jefferson even got Most Improved Player votes, something that Kuminga did not earn. Jefferson was a year older at the time, but that was about it. Jefferson went on to have a solid career after – he averaged 16.7 points and 8.5 rebounds for the next decade, but he was never really a difference maker. His teams never won a playoff series. If you had to bet, that is where the safe money would land on Kuminga's career. But again, even if he becomes more, it's unlikely he realizes that potential to matter for Curry. (Also, Markkanen is four years younger than Garnett was at the time of that trade.)

The Celtics will eventually face this same issue with the Jay's Era (Jayson Tatum was 17th on that minutes played list I referenced above, if you were curious). Hopefully, that is not for another decade. But when it comes, and it will eventually come, I hope they will make the assessment that it is better to go out guns blazing, and then pick up the pieces later. Because one way or another, it's all going to come crashing down. Golden State had a chance to fight the good fight, but were too cheap to retain Klay Thompson, and then too scared to make the big trade they needed. That's consecutive bitter pills to swallow, and that's sad for those who love Steph Curry, and want to see him cement his case as one of the 10 best players of all-time.