Finding 10 Minutes
We can't know if Kristaps Porzingis will play in Game 3. He has now twice in this postseason come down with an injury I had not heard of before this year, which has to be some sort of record along the lines of Happy Gilmore taking his skate off and trying to stab somebody. So let's start with what I think I do know. And that is this – I believe Al Horford will play 38-39 minutes tonight. So that leaves the Celtics needing to find 10 minutes of gameplay, possibly from a player deeper on the bench and possibly not.
The reason I think Al will play 38-39 minutes (let's call it 38 for simplicity sake) is that seemed to be the pattern in the games Boston absolutely wanted to win this postseason while Porzingis was out. It was the case in Game 3 at Cleveland, Game 1 vs. Indiana, and Game 4 at Indiana. In all three cases, the result was going to carry with it a little more of an edge. In Game 3 at Cleveland, the C's didn't want to go down in the series after a lackluster Game 2. In Game 1 vs. Indiana, once the C's tied it and sent it to overtime, it was clear that completing the comeback would be a backbreaker, so Al played the entire overtime. And in Game 4, you win and you get nine days rest, so it was worth playing him the extra minutes in order to get the extra rest.
The NBA Finals are at a similar point in Game 3. If Boston wins, the series becomes fairly academic. The Celtics haven't lost three consecutive games all season, and even without Porzingis, it seems highly unlikely that that would happen for the first time now. However, if you lose tonight, and then have one fewer day of rest heading into what would become a pivotal Game 4, all of a sudden you could have a series on your hands, because with the quicker turnaround, Game 4 may be a lost cause either way. Better to plan to play Al the big minutes tonight when you know he'll be fresh(er) given the extra day of rest after Game 2.
That leaves Boston with three decent to good choices heading into Game 3. Let's discuss in order of how I think they stack up.
The Green Kornet
Who gets those minutes comes down to how you want to play Dallas. Luke Kornet is going to likely be up first, and gives the C's the closest facsimile to the way they've played in the first two games. Throughout the season, Kornet has consistently been given the first opportunity to sink or swim. The issue with Kornet is whether he can stay in front of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving when they hunt him in pick and roll. Kornet had a lot of trouble staying in front of Darius Garland in the Cleveland series, and then didn't really play much in the Indiana series. You'd think Kornet would have the same trouble with Irving that he did with Garland. That would open up the lane for entry passes/lobs to Dallas' big men, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, unless the Celtics were super aggressive about not giving the switch. There was a point in Game 2 when Jayson Tatum was covering Gafford, and Irving tried to switch Derrick White onto Gafford for just such a purpose, and Tatum and White managed to not give the switch. Irving was still able to get a pass by to Gafford in the post after the pick-and-roll failed, but Boston's strategy there was clear.
The other danger with playing Kornet is those Dallas bigs sagging into the paint and giving Luka or Irving a breather by letting them guard a non-shooter on the perimeter, as Boston likes to bring Kornet up to the three-point line for pick and rolls. Kornet is an adept passer, though and if you're letting Irving – who is essentially a foot shorter – cover him, Kornet will have the opportunity to stand there and pick out a cutter. No matter how you slice it, it may give Dallas a little edge, but Kornet is likely the best matchup. Even if his minutes end poorly, playing him allows you to not burden the other seven players more than they have been in these playoffs. And if you play it correctly, he can still take away Dallas' lob threat.
Playing Small
The other good option would be to play small, with Tatum at center and three guards on the court. The Celtics played three guards at the same time both times Payton Pritchard was on the court in Game 2. And while either Horford or Porzingis was on the floor for those minutes, it was Tatum who covered the center. The player who wasn't on the floor for the majority of those minutes was Jaylen Brown, but it wouldn't be too different to have Brown, Sam Hauser, or Oshae Brissett in there in the Horford/Porzingis spot (Xavier Tillman, to be clear, would be my last choice. I think Tillman is too slow and/or too short for this series, period. I think he would have been a good fit had the C's matched up with the Denver Nuggets, but I really don't want to see him on the court in this series at all.).
The results in these three-guard lineups were a bit of a mixed bag. From 9:48 in the second quarter to 6:24, they played Pritchard, White, and Jrue Holiday in a three-guard lineup with Tatum and Porzingis/Horford. At the start of that time, Boston was down 35-29, and at the end of it they were up 36-35. I don't think this is definitive proof that the three-guard lineup worked, especially because Dallas didn't really attack it. On three of Dallas' possessions in that stretch, Plan A was for either Luka or Irving to take their guy one on one. And the C's offense wasn't exactly pretty on a couple of those possessions. One ended with White taking a one-footed desperation three. But the C's held serve for more than three minutes, with Brown only coming in for White at the 6:24 mark when Pritchard was whistled for a defensive three seconds, when he kept both feet in the paint right by the free-throw line (guessing that is the first time he's been whistled for that).
In the fourth quarter, the three-guard period didn't last as long because it didn't work as well. Irving got loose for a couple of easy buckets, but it was just him beating his fellow guards off the dribble, so again, I'm not really sure we can draw a definitive conclusion from that sample either.
What I can say is those minutes were not a disaster, and that Tatum has held up well in this series guarding Dallas' center, so it's possible for the Celtics to soak up those 10 additional minutes without going any deeper into the bench. More minutes for Pritchard and Hauser may be just fine and dandy, because utilizing either player allows the C's to maintain their spacing on offense. It leaves them with a lack of size for help defense and rebounding when Dallas has the ball, but again, the strategies don't really change much. That may be easier to wrap their heads around, but it also shortens the rotation to seven players right before you play Game 4 on shorter rest.
Ultimately, while I think these are the only two good choices, I don't think one choice is necessarily better than the other when considering the full context of the series.
Porzingis Plays
Of course, there is the possibility that Porzingis actually plays. I'm not as enamored with this. If he does play, I would keep him to 10-12 minutes, and I would use him only in windows when Horford needs a breather. I would not force the issue with him, and honestly, I would not play him unless/until the series reaches a more desperate place. Up to 2-0 is not "Willis Reed playing D with desire" territory. To me, it's not worth risking him injuring himself further and missing all of next season until Dallas has demonstrated that Boston has no choice but to risk it.
Dallas Has Decisions Too
It's not just Joe Mazzulla who has decisions to make. Dallas coach Jason Kidd has been searching for the right lineups to play in this series. In each of the first two games, Kidd played 10 guys (not even counting garbage time in Game 1). That's abnormal for the Conference and NBA Finals, as rotations usually thin to seven or eight guys – Boston only played eight in both games, not counting Game 1's garbage time. And in reality the number for Dallas is 11, because the 10th guy was different in Games 1 and 2. In Game 1, Tim Hardaway Jr. played and Dante Exum didn't play until garbage time. In Game 2, Exum played and Hardaway Jr. didn't.
Complicating matters even further is the fact that Dereck Lively II (-30 combined in Games 1 and 2), Maxi Kleber (-14), and Josh Green (-15) were pretty awful in Boston (Derrick Jones Jr. plays good defense and his spot feels more secure, but it's also worth noting he was a -17 across the two games, and was on the minus side in both). So even before Porzingis' injury, Kidd had to decide how he was going to adjust, if at all. Before Porzingis' injury, it seemed pretty clear to me that Daniel Gafford (only 14 minutes in Game 1 and 22 in Game 2) needed to play more at Lively's and Kleber's expense. Now, Kidd may be tempted to run it back with Lively (athleticism to blow past Kornet) and Kleber (shooting ability pulling Kornet/Tatum out of the paint) because without Porzingis, the matchups will change.
On top of that, you have the possibility that Luka Dončić may need more breathers than he did in Games 1 and 2. It was reported yesterday that Luka got a painkilling injection before Game 2 and would need another before Game 3, which is not the sort of thing that is usually reported in the media. Maybe it's common practice for players to get those shots in such a short timespan and the Mavericks simply let the report come out because they are trying to build in their excuses ahead of time, or maybe he's seriously, seriously hurt. It is kind of hard to tell with him because even when he's completely healthy he isn't usually moving at the speed of light. Either way, if he can't play 42 minutes in Game 3 like he did in Game 2, then Dallas basically has to be perfect in his time on the bench, and that's going to be a lot tougher if the head coach is still searching for his preferred lineup combinations.