Eastern Conference: 10 Most Intriguing Players

I want to admit right up front that I am blatantly stealing this story idea from Zach Lowe, who did this as a story and a podcast. His was for the NBA overall, mine is just the Eastern Conference. These guys are essentially in order from most to least intriguing for me, with the exception of Pritchard. Pritchard isn't necessarily the most intriguing for me, but this is a Celtics blog and I figure a lot of you will stop reading after the Celtics part, so I put him first.

I will also say that the final four guys here, starting with Evan Fournier, are intriguing partly because of their play, but almost equally because of their situation with their team. In other words, it's not just about how they play, but if they may potentially be dealt or affect their team's station this season because of their salary, that sort of thing.

Payton Pritchard

Just about all of the players on the Celtics are intriguing to me. If you read my last piece, you probably already know that. But this Celtics team is being framed as "the top six" and everyone else. Payton Pritchard is going to get the first crack at making "top six" into "top seven." In these first few preseason games, it looks very much like the team is positioning him to get consistent minutes. That would be a departure.

Last season, there were only four instances in which Pritchard played 15+ minutes in consecutive games – a three-game span from Nov. 25-28, a three-game span from Jan. 21-24, Feb. 10-12 (just before the All-Star break), and then the final two (inconsequential) games of the season, April 7-9. He didn't play much, is the point, and certainly didn't play consistently. And when he played, he wasn't always involved in the offense either. That was perplexing, because in the prior two seasons, he had played well.

In three NBA seasons, Pritchard has shot .400 from three-point land, and .890 from the free-throw line. Of the 22 guards in his draft class that have played 1,000+ NBA minutes, Pritchard's .570 true shooting percentage (TS%) ranks sixth – better than Immanuel Quickley, Anthony Edwards, Devin Vassell, and LaMelo Ball. His 3-point % among that 22-guard group ranks fourth overall, behind only Desmond Bane, Tyrese Maxey, and Tyrese Haliburton. Not bad!

The wrinkle is that we need to see it consistently under coach Joe Mazzulla, and when it matters. If he can do that, then the bench is going to fall right into place, and this roster will look as deep to national pundits as it looks to me.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

The first thing that intrigues me about Giannis this season is exactly how much he will play. After playing in at least 93% of Milwaukee's games in his first four seasons, his games played percentage has steadily dropped in each of the past six seasons:

With Milwaukee's depth turned over and seemingly less impressive after the Damian Lillard trade, and with Khris Middleton's health still far from a sure thing, and with Brook Lopez being on the precipice of a decline, and with Lillard being in his first season in Milwaukee, so much is going to fall to Giannis.

(Brief aside on Lopez. He played 2,372 minutes last season, which was his age-34 season. Only 10 players in NBA history have played 2,300+ minutes in their age-35 season or older: David Robinson, Robert Parish, Dikembe Mutombo, Moses Malone, Artis Gilmore, Vlade Divac, Antonio Davis, Wilt Chamberlain, P.J. Brown, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. I remember Divac being pretty gimpy, but these other guys are not who I would comp Lopez to in terms of athleticism.)

The other big question I have for Giannis is can he give up the ball? He has led the NBA in usage percentage in two of the past four seasons, including last season, when his usage percentage was a whopping 38.8% – 1.2% more than Luka Doncic, who is routinely derided for having the ball too much. Lillard has historically had the ball far less, just 29.2% for his career, but last season was his career high at 33.8%. Lillard has been brought in to save Milwaukee's offense. The main problem with said offense is that when Giannis has the ball, his decision-making process is fairly predictable. If he won't cede the ball to Lillard, it's going to be tough for them to improve.

It seems silly to question whether Giannis will do what it takes to win, as he an incredible drive to do so. But as players get older, they often get more stubborn, and Giannis is no exception. And unlike Lillard, Giannis has already won his title, and his MVPs. Is he still capable of adapting, or can you not tell him nothing?

Cade Cunningham

MF'ers forgot about Cade. There are 10 players in NBA history who averaged 15+ points, 5+ assists, and 5+ rebounds in their rookie seasons: Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, Alvan Adams, Steve Francis, Grant Hill, Tyreke Evans, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Cade Cunningham. Any time you can land on a list with four of the ~25 best players in NBA history, that's pretty great company. Cunningham had a forgettable sophomore season, but he seems back in top form now.

I was a big believer in the Pistons last season, and I remain so now, because of Cunningham. I saw him take over games during his rookie season. He didn't get sped up in situations where most rookies flounder. He played with the pace and savvy of a veteran. I think he has the potential to be an All-Star as soon as this season, and that he has a lot of potentially great players around him. I really love Ausar Thompson, and Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duran are going to be solid players in this league. I just can't quit Marvin Bagley III, and Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris, and Alec Burks are crafty veterans.

I think the Pistons will be in play-in territory this season, but they could do even better if Cunningham picks up where he left off during his rookie season. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Kyle Lowry

Don't look now, but Kyle Lowry is the only point guard on the Miami Heat roster. Zach Lowe indicated on a recent podcast that the Heat may give Josh Richardson some minutes at point guard, but Celtics fans have seen what a ball stopper Richardson is. He's not a point guard in any way except height and build. Sometimes Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro will bring the ball up, as will Bam Adebayo. Adebayo, in particular, is a good/great passer for his size. But Miami also needs him to set his legendary illegal picks and screens, crash the glass, and do lots of other things. He is already overtaxed without playing point center. Aside from him, the Heat's only really good passer is Lowry.

This is a big problem for a team that prides itself not on its regular season performance, but rather its playoff performance. Lowry's playoff minutes per game have declined from 37.5 in both 2019 and 2020, to 29.5 in 2022, and 26.0 in 2023. Lowry is still wily when he's on the court – his 6.1 assists per 36 minutes in the 2023 postseason are a near replica of his 6.4 assists per 36 minutes in Toronto's 2019 championship run. But if he can play half the game, it will leave the Heat trying to fake their way through the other half without a point guard.

The Miami Heat are not going to miss Max Strus. Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jovic, more Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, someone is going to ably fill Strus' shoes. But Gabe Vincent is another story. Erik Spoelstra is a really great coach. Is he good enough to play without a point guard for half of every playoff game? If he's not, and the Heat aren't able to swing a deal for a legit point guard, then more burden is going to fall to 37-year-old Lowry.

I will never count out Lowry – he might trick a ref into giving him a call at his retirement ceremony – but his shooting did take a sharp dip last season. After putting up true shooting percentages of .590, .593, and .600 from 2019-20 to 2021-22, he dropped to .565 last season. He's had seasons that low (and frankly much lower) before, but as he loses his quickness and speed, he's more reliant on his shooting. Last regular season, he shot a career high 63.9% of his shots from three-point land, but shot just .345 from distance. That mark ranked 13th of his 17 NBA seasons, and was his worst mark in nearly a decade. If he can't improve his shooting, and he can't get faster, and the Heat don't have any other choice but to play him, that's really not great for them.

Franz Wagner

The younger Wagner brother was a revelation as a rookie, and grew in his second year, averaging 18.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. He turned the ball over more, he took far fewer shots within 10 feet, and his free throw percentage wasn't quite as good, but otherwise you would say he got better everywhere else. But I would classify that growth as "incremental" rather than as a "leap." If Wagner is capable of a leap in year three, then you have to start taking Orlando seriously. After starting last season 5-20, they rattled off a six-game win streak and finished the season 29-28. I think Orlando is solidly within play-in range.

Having said that, Orlando didn't do a ton this offseason. Joe Ingles came in, but he didn't really do much to help Milwaukee last year, and it's unlikely that he changes their fortunes much. They have the two lottery picks, Anthony Black and Jett Howard, and they should help in the long run, but it's not likely that they help a ton this season. Beyond that, they can hope for better health from Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac, but their best bet for a better record is organic improvement from Wagner.

Paolo Banchero is going to get better, I am very confident in that. His main flaw is shooting, and he's too good for his shot to not get better. I am not as confident in Wagner's ability to make a leap. There is no obvious hole in his game. I've seen Wagner go off for big quarters, but I've also seen him disappear for quarters. I think making that leap comes down to consistency, which is the hardest way to make one. Can he get more consistent and make that leap? If not, I think Orlando's ceiling is capped.

Evan Mobley

This one is fairly simple. Can Mobley get tough enough that the Cavs don't have to worry about who they match up with in the playoffs? I do really love Mitchell Robinson, but even I would never say that I think he is more talented than Mobley. In the spring, it didn't matter. He and Isaiah Hartenstein muscled Mobley off the court.

Mobley averaged nine rebounds per game last season, which is great, but hardly historic. For the season, he grabbed 711 total rebounds. There have been 1,219 NBA player seasons with at least 700 rebounds. His rebound percentage needs to improve. In the regular season and in their first-round loss to the Knicks, Mobley grabbed 15% of the rebounds when he was on the court. That's just not enough for a guy who's seven feet tall. Both Robinson (20.4%) and Hartenstein (16%) topped him in those five playoff games.

Does that mean I'm writing off Evan Mobley? Far from it. I think Mobley will be a very good player in this league for a very long time, and this will only be his age-22 season. But Donovan Mitchell is only contractually bound to the Cavs for this season and next, so how quickly Mobley is able to grow is a key question.

Evan Fournier

The Knicks were a five-seed last season. I haven't quite nailed down my predictions yet, but I think the Knicks are a four-seed at worst this season. And I think Evan Fournier is going to be pivotal to this team in one way or another. Last season, Tom Thibodeau absolutely buried Fournier on the bench, preferring stout defense to Fournier's shooting prowess. Just one problem – the Knicks couldn't hit a shot when it mattered. As a team, their .354 three-point percentage in the regular season ranked 19th. Then they went out and averaged just 100.1 points in the playoffs, failing to tally 100 points in four of their 11 playoff games.

Thibs has a reputation for being stubborn. Never was this more clear in the fact that he let Miles McBride take 20 more three's than Fournier last season. Fournier certainly started slow and had his worst season in the NBA, but he showed again this summer in the World Cup that he remains a dead-eye shooter.

If the Knicks really are determined to not play him once again, he could become a valuable trade chip. He can be an expiring contract, because his $19 million for next season is a team option. The Knicks are still a piece away from being a top flight contender, and Fournier's $18.9 million contract this season could be a big part of any consolidation trade they make. Just as a quick for instance, Julius Randle + Evan Fournier for Joel Embiid works in the ESPN Trade Machine. Obviously, there would have to be a bushel of draft picks attached to such a trade, and perhaps a Jericho Sims and/or Jacob Toppin too, but in my opinion, if the Knicks make a major move this season, Fournier will be involved.

Tobias Harris

You know who people don't talk about much? Tobias Harris. Usually when people talk about Harris, it's to complain he's overpaid. But that ends after this season. For all his warts, Harris is a dependable, reliable, and willing player. Willing as in willing to do what his team needs, and willing to play in nearly every game. Both are important for a Sixers team whose best players are only capable of success in very specific ways. Replacing Harris will be easier said than done, though it seems the Sixers are hell bent on letting him walk to free up as much cap room as possible next summer to recruit players to play alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Maybe they will do that. Maybe they will try to trade Harris now that he has an expiring contract. Until that point, I am intrigued by how Harris will handle this season.

Throughout all the swirling Sixers chaos, Harris has remained the calm port in the storm. Will he continue to be so with his next contract on the line, or will he throw the Sixers yet another curveball by prioritizing his future over the present of a team that seemingly doesn't have much allegiance to him.

Pascal Siakam

It may be a very long season for the Toronto Raptors, and unless you're a really big believer in James Harden or Nic Claxton, Pascal Siakam looks to be the premier unrestricted free agent of next summer. Will the Raptors let him walk? It doesn't sound like they want to re-sign him, and his feeling seems to be mutual. If he is traded, will it be to a team like Philly or Miami who could be one piece away but don't have a ton of assets, or will it be to a team like Utah or Oklahoma City who could give up a ton of draft picks in exchange for an immediate contract extension from Siakam, so that he doesn't hit free agency?

Siakam doesn't have the sizzle that other All-Stars have had in their contract seasons, but if the Sixers were able to reunite him with fellow Cameroon native and friend Joel Embiid, they could indeed be a formidable team.

Gordon Hayward

He doesn't play as much as he used to. He hasn't cleared 52 games played in any of the past four seasons. And his performance is now solidly below average. But is it possible that in a contract year Hayward will hook himself to the rejuvenation machine and play well enough to get himself traded out of purgatory? I think the Hornets will once again be terrible. They once again couldn't be forced to divorce themselves from Miles Bridges, and are now suffering the consequences of that decision. I sincerely doubt Bridges plays this year, nor do I believe he should. They didn't have a good offense or defense last year. Brandon Miller (and his own checkered past) was the only other significant addition they made in the offseason, and he is going to have to jockey for playing time with P.J. Washington, Cody Martin, and Hayward.

I also don't believe in LaMelo Ball. I think he's a chucker, and essentially tall Trae Young, or Trae Young with rebounds. Last season, Ball shot 721 times in 1,268 minutes, becoming just the eighth player in NBA history to shoot more than 700 times in fewer than 1,300 minutes played. One of them was 35-year-old Kobe Bryant on the 2014-2015 Lakers that went 21-61. There's also 2020-21 John Wall on the 17-55 Rockets, and 2019-20 Derrick Rose on the 20-46 Pistons. It's not a distinguished list.

So between fleeing purgatory and seeing his minutes reduced to showcase the No. 2 draft pick, Hayward has plenty of motivation to get out of Charlotte and put a happy bow on the past four years of his NBA career. Can he buckle down, be healthy, play hard, and look like a guy a contender may want to take a flyer on as the trade deadline approaches? I wouldn't call it a likely scenario, but there is still a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny (so tiny) part of me that feels bad for Hayward, so I'm intrigued by even the remote possibility of his redemption.

Other Players Considered

Mikal Bridges, Bruce Brown Jr., Daniel Gafford, Onyeka Okongwu, Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum