Confirmation Bias and Other First-Round Thoughts

So, how did I do?

• Thunder in 4. Check.
• Rockets in 7. Not wrong yet!
• Lakers in 5. Woof.
• Clippers in 7. So close.
• Cavaliers in 5. Should have predicted the sweep. I still give Miami more respect than they deserve.
• Celtics in 5. Check.
• Knicks in 7. A game off, but feels right. Detroit puts just one of those three close home games away, and this would have been exact.
• Pacers in 6. Close enough.

That's five of the seven winners so far, with the chance to be six of eight. Right in the meaty part of the curve. It was a fun first round, and I'm glad there's a game left!

The one series I got horrible wrong was Lakers-Wolves, and I think that's where confirmation bias comes into play. Over and over again, the biggest mistake one can make when analyzing March and April NBA games is taking into account whether the teams actually give a damn. It's an easy mistake to make – these guys are highly-paid professionals, and it's easy to assume that they care.

So when you see the Lakers go 15-7 in the second half in the games LeBron James played, and climb from fifth in the standings to third, it's hard to fight the notion that it isn't meaningful. It's hard to fight the notion that maybe teams weren't giving their all against them, that maybe they hung with OKC in OKC because the Lakers are really good now. That they're a deep team, and their coach is not over his head, and that he won't do something monumentally stupid like play a 40-year-old guy for an entire second half, and then make it worse by throwing a hissy fit when questioned about it before the next game. That he's a smart enough guy to know that actually Gabe Vincent is a killer who hit 51% of his threes in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics and that you shouldn't leave him out of your rotation. That a guy you watched cry on the court three weeks ago is mentally tough enough to lead a team that needs leading when he's still trying to process his ew situation, one that maybe includes coming back too soon from a leg injury.

It's easier to just believe in LeBron and Luka exceptionalism, and to not believe in the team with Julius Randle, a guy every analyst hates because he doesn't play efficiently by the standards of analytic basketball. Podcast after podcast tells me so. And so I forgot about the most important thing a basketball team can have – continuity. This T-Wolves team knows exactly who it is, because they only made one real switch this year – Karl-Anthony Towns out, and Donte DiVencenzo and Randle in. They spent all year figuring it out, and lost some inexplicable games along the way. But the proof was in the pudding in round one. The minutes varied depending on the game need or strategy (like, "the Lakers decided to not respect Rudy Gobert, let's play him more tonight"), but they played together, solidly. LA, on the other hand, was searching for who they were. Not surprising, given that this iteration of their team had two months together. But the confirmation bias was strong, and I missed it.

I'm far from the only one, obviously. So many analysts wanted to believe that Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the Bucks to a 19-10 record after the break was a sign that the Bucks had rounded back into shape, and not a sign that the Pistons weren't ready, the Magic too injured, and the rest of the conference either inept and/or tanking for Cooper Flagg. There was comfort in hiding behind Giannis averaging a double-double, because it was easier than admitting that he forced his team to trade for a player who he wasn't willing to make sacrifices for, that he wasn't willing to share the ball, that he was willing to shank his longest-standing teammate in the back if it meant getting his playoff glory back, and that the Bucks weren't a shell of the team they once were and that he could average 50 points a game and it still wouldn't matter.

Most important, hiding behind his double-double is easier than admitting that he never has and never will make anyone on his team better on offense, and that his defense doesn't quite stand out anymore now that Brook Lopez is more ready for retirement than another 82-game season. With Lopez in the middle and Giannis roaming free, Giannis looked like the best defender alive (so did Evan Mobley this year). So they hid behind his double-double and voted him into the top three in the MVP race. This was foolish, a gigantic mistake, and a slap in the face of Jayson Tatum, who was the far superior player this season. Tatum took a minimum-salary player in Luke Kornet and turned him into the second-best pick-and-roll partner in the NBA this season, behind only Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. That's what a truly valuable player does. But it's easier to believe in pre-conceived notions of Giannis' greatness. Hopefully, after three straight seasons of him not winning a single playoff series, the confirmation bias will be stripped away a little next season. But I won't hold my breath.

Looking Ahead to the Second Round

Predictions wise, I had Thunder in six, and won't come off of that, though I think it could finish sooner. The Nuggets are going to be on fumes soon, if they're not already. I had Lakers in six, and this is the hardest series to predict, especially because it doesn't even have confirmed participants yet, but the only thing I know for sure is that the Warriors can't hang with OKC, so I'll hope it isn't them. I had Cleveland in seven and Boston in five, and those still feel right to me.

Story line-wise, I'm looking forward to a few non-Celtics-related things:

1. People paying closer attention to the Pacers. They maybe don't have it what it takes to go all the way, but also they might. I am glad they're on the other side of the bracket.
2. The burgeoning of Anthony Edwards' profile. Consecutive seasons leading his team to the second round, with a good chance to win two rounds in consecutive seasons, and maybe more. It is nothing to sneeze at, and shouldn't be taken for granted. Even though I initially did.
3. If they make it past Golden State, the weaponizing of the Rockets' jumbo lineup. It maybe won't work against the Wolves the way it has against the Warriors, but it's been fun to watch that wrinkle.
4. Will anyone challenge the Thunder at all? The shine is completely off the rest of the Western Conference, Minnesota excluded, and even as good as the Wolves played, the Lakers made so many unforced errors in their series.
5. Are the Cavs really real? They weren't challenged in the first round either, and this round is where their journey ended last season. I'm so excited to watch their series.