Celtics Player Power Rankings, Three-Fourths Edition
Somehow, there is only one quarter left in the Celtics' regular season! Three-fourths of 82 games is 61.5, so I suppose if you want to live on technicalities, it won't be until halftime of tomorrow's game, but you know, close enough.
Looking back at the season with a wider lens, it's crazy how quickly I fell back into expecting the team to win just about every game. And yet, that belief has been somewhat justified. The team hasn't lost three consecutive games since the first three games of the season, and since then they've only lost consecutive games three times – none since January 10th and 12th, nearly two full months ago. They've had two five-game winning streaks, and three four-game winning streaks, and they are currently working on a three-game winning streak. The team has chosen its off-days for Jaylen Brown really well, which has helped them go 6-1 in the games he hasn't played. Just about everything that can go right has gone right.
The biggest test of the season is looming, as starting Sunday they play consecutive road games in Cleveland, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City. Cleveland seems like the easiest win of the three, but they get a full four days off to prepare, which is preposterous. That stretch could easily become a three-game losing streak, though I feel like the C's will be champing at the bit to get revenge on San Antonio. Their first meeting was one of the rare times this season they let a lead slip away late, and I'm sure that will provide extra motivation.
Looming above all, of course, is Jayson Tatum's potential return. It has been heavily rumored that his return will be this Friday against Dallas, but I think March 14th is more likely. For one, it will give him another week and change to get ready. He'll still have 16 games left in the season if he comes back on the 14th. He'll have the opportunity to come back a conquering hero if they do lose those three games, or two of the three. And finally, the fourth part of Tatum's comeback video series with NBC/Peacock is likely to air in the game on the 10th against San Antonio. If that fourth video leads up to just before now, the fifth and final segment can air during the March 22nd game vs. Minnesota, and capture his (hopefully magnificent) return, and tie a nice, neat bow on things. I hate to think so cynically, but if I was Tatum's team, that's how I would be drawing it up.
Anyway, we're off track now. What do you say we go through this player by player, as we often do?
One. Jaylen Brown (last time, 1): I'm just going to leave this here, because only JB could lead another team's fans to go this insane:
Two. Derrick White (2): After shooting a paltry .259 from three in January, White has snapped back to himself by shooting .351 from deep in February, and .391 thus far in March. His assist numbers are up since the end of January as well. White looking more like himself has been just about the biggest development of the past five-six weeks.
Three. Neemias Queta (4): We're to the point where Queta is conservatively one of the 10 best centers in the NBA, and potentially one of the five best. The only centers I think are definitively better than Queta right now are Nikola Jokić, Victor Wembanyama, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jalen Duren. I think we can have a conversation about Jarrett Allen and Donovan Clingan. I don't think Bam Adebayo, Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley apply, because I think they're really power forwards, but if you want to count them as centers, OK. Let's talk about that. But that's nine guys. And unlike every single one of these players, Queta is on a minimum salary. Brad Stevens is a wizard.
Four. Payton Pritchard (3): He's had some down games lately, and he still is susceptible to being a total zero offensively on nights when he doesn't have it. And while he's worked hard to be decent on defense, when he doesn't have it offensively, you just kind of need to put him on the bench.
Five. Baylor Scheierman (10): His rebounding has been so impactful. Basically what Josh Minott had been doing earlier in the season, except without the head-scratching mistakes. And he hits enough of his shots that he just kind of makes sense as a starter. At least until JT returns. And maybe even after, who knows. Perhaps Sam Hauser will head back to the bench.
Six. Sam Hauser (8): My bet would be against it, and Sam does nearly every good thing that Scheierman does. And Hauser's shooting is better. But Scheierman's shooting is closing the gap, and he's just a little bit faster and springier, which is why I bumped Sam below him.
Seven. Nikola Vučević (N/A): He is finding a rhythm. Initially, he was borderline useless when his threes weren't falling, but the team is getting better at working the ball to him in the post, and he's getting better at picking his spots, and knowing where his teammates will be. His defense can often be porous, but he does everything better than Garza except offensive rebounding, and Garza is only better in that element because of his effort. And presumably, the effort gap between Garza and his opponents will shrink during the playoffs, reducing his impact in that area. So it helps to have Vooch.
Eight. Hugo González (9): I haven't fully examined it yet, but my working theory right now is that Hugo is essentially Spanish Josh Hart. He does all of the effort-y Josh Hart things – cutting, offensive rebounds where he comes out of nowhere, taking charges, guarding anybody – and his shot similarly comes and goes. Where I think he can be evolutionary Spanish Josh Hart is with said three-point shot. Hart's shot almost never looks smooth, you're almost always surprised when it goes in. Hugo's shot sometimes does look very smooth. He has a weird tendency to lean too far forward when he takes it, like he's still not confident he can get the ball all the way to the rim. But when he is upright, it often looks pretty. I love this kid, and I think this time next season he's going to be a few spots higher in these rankings.
Nine. Jordan Walsh (5): If it's whiplash you're feeling, it's probably from Walsh's ranking here. Walsh started the season ranked 13th, ascended to fifth, and now has dropped back to ninth. In the last 16 games, he's had one DNP-CD (did not play, coach's decision) and another game with just three minutes played. He's also had a game with 29 minutes played, and two others at 20+ minutes. Lately, he seems to have settled into a range from seven to 16 minutes played, and he's been valuable in those minutes, but that's still down a bunch from earlier in the season.
Ten. Luka Garza (12): He will be heard from when all is said and done, and several games out of the lineup did not affect his effort and execution when he was called upon for regular minutes last night in Milwaukee. But his minutes have definitely taken a bite with Vooch's acquisition. Ironically, he's still up in these rankings since last time, because last time I did these rankings, he had not played in five of the eight prior games. He would collect one more DNP, and then come back into the lineup with a force over the next 26 games. The final two of those games involved the C's playing double bigs, and that was a disaster, and so Garza's role has once again been trimmed. But he'll be back!
Eleven. Ron Harper Jr. (15): He's a reliable member of the rotation now. After picking up six straight DNP's, he was a revelation in his first career start in Houston on Feb. 4th. He's played in eight of the 10 games since, including 10+ minutes in six of them. The big question is can Harper hit his three's. When he does, he's an incredibly valuable player. When he doesn't, he's still very useful in defense and hustle roles, as he can be a matchup problem for small guards.
Twelve. Amari Williams (13): Before the team traded for Vooch, it seemed like they would be fine with Williams as the third big. He had a few really good moments. As the fourth big, he feels like a luxury, and gives us a player who can be counted upon in short bursts should the need arise.
Thirteen. Dalano Banton (N/A): I was disappointed when they let him go the first time, and while he almost certainly won't be here long-term, it's nice to know the team still values him.
Fourteen. John Tonje (N/A): Seems like a good pickup. Again, he may not be here permanently, but you can see the logic in how he profiles.
Fifteen. Max Shulga (16): They seem to value him, but almost never play him, even since Banton and Tonje have arrived. I just want to see him get his first NBA points, the way Tonje did the other night.
N/A. Jayson Tatum (N/A): It's funny because it's true. I wouldn't be even remotely surprised if coach Joe Mazzulla said something like "he’s putting in the work. But until he can distinguish the Staircase of Truth from the Staircase of Deception in under 40 seconds, there’s really nothing new to report."
