Cavs-a Culpa, Or The Mid-Season Check In

Before the season, I predicted the final place in the standings for all 30 teams. Now that just about all teams are halfway through their schedule, it feels like a good time to go back through and see where things stand. I'm going to do these in my predicted order of finish, and I'll note their current place in the standing, and then talk a bit about if I think there's a chance they'll actually end up in my predicted spot come season's end.

But we're going to start with the Cleveland Cavaliers. There were a few teams I was way off on, but none moreso than the Cavs. I dismissed the Cavs in the preseason, predicting they would fall back to eighth, for a number of bad reasons. It turns out, Darius Garland's injury really did affect him toward the end of last season, and that just because Al Horford rejected a few of his shots didn't mean he wasn't a scrub. It just means Horford is awesome. I also dismissed the possibility of Kenny Atkinson doing great in his second stint as a head coach, just like he was in his first stint as a head coach. I dismissed their core four players as being incapable of playing together without allowing for the potential that Evan Mobley's continued growth would make their respective puzzle pieces fit seamlessly, just as Cavs management had hoped/dreamed. I also thought they were thin, but now with all four of their core players excelling, they are able to constantly keep one or two of them on the floor the way the C's do, and that elevates what has been a great bench. Newcomer Ty Jerome has taken over more than a couple of games.

I also think Donovan Mitchell should be getting more recognition in the maddening MVP conversation (the maddening part is a separate conversation). He's shooting with the same efficiency, but on lower volume, making the kinds of concessions that leaders need to make. Chief among them is that he's playing significantly fewer minutes per game – a career low 31.1 minutes per game, after averaging 35.6 in his first two seasons in Cleveland. This should keep him fresh for the playoffs, and it's helping the team build more trust in its other core and bench players. There's no question in my mind that Mitchell's sacrifices are the biggest reason why the Cavs are doing so well, rivaled only by Mobley's development and Atkinson's coaching. You just can't get far if your best player isn't willing to take you there. Mitchell has shown that he is willing to be that guy, and I've been pleasantly surprised to see it, because his game has always been just a little too hero-ball tinged in the past.

Do I still think the C's, playing at the level they played in last season's playoffs, can beat them? I do. But I no longer believe that is a given, and I no longer find the C's to be the undisputed favorite to win the NBA Finals this season. That status is now very disputed by Cleveland, who I think are perfectly capable of doing so. In fact, I think they're the only other team capable of doing so. Cavs-a culpa!

Western Conference

(projected pick - team (current place))

15th - Utah (15th): Utah doesn't want to be good, and now that New Orleans is finally healthy, they've zoomed past Utah. I'd be surprised if Utah moved up in the standings, and I expect Collin Sexton and possibly other players to be dealt before the trade deadline in a couple weeks.

14th - Portland (13th): There's a good chance they end up right here. Again, New Orleans is healthy-ish again, and has won three in a row and six of their last 10. Portland is still expected to trade some guys at the deadline, especially Robert Williams III.

13th - LA Clippers (5th): Norm Powell! While I do expect the Clippers to slide, possibly out of the top six, chalk this one up as an egregious error on my part. I had the idea right here – that this looks like a collection of guys who was good five years ago – but the wrong team to apply it to.

12th - New Orleans (14th): I was wrong about them in the sense that I didn't think the pieces fit together. They fit well enough, thanks in large part to rookie Yves Missi being a pretty decent center. But they've rarely been healthy, and ironically they could have used Dyson Daniels quite a bit this season. I was right though about their lack of rebounding. Their rebounds per game haven't changed much – 44.0 last season to 43.2 this season. But last season, they ranked 13th in the NBA, and this season they're at 23rd. 44.0 rebounds per game would rank 17th this season. The league is just deeper and better. Either way, I expect the Pelicans will climb a little, leaving me right in range to be correct here. They are unfortunately 9.5 games behind the 12 seed, but they should easily get to 13 unless they punt.

11th - Golden State (11th): Never a doubt. The Warriors can pull it together for single games, when they have ample rest, and Stephen Curry is feeling it. Otherwise, they're mediocre at best. Even if they improve and one of the LA teams or Phoenix drops down, I also expect San Antonio to improve a little and sneak past them, leaving the Warriors right where they are now.

10th - San Antonio (12th): This is a fun team to watch, and one that is not solely reliant on Victor Wembanyama for offense in crunch time. I am hopeful they'll make a minor addition at the trade deadline to buoy their chances. They have some tradeable guys, chief among them Zach Collins. Collins is a better passer than Charles Bassey, but Bassey is a serviceable backup center, and $14+M cheaper. I remain confident the Spurs will jump these two spots and into the play-in.

9th - Houston (2nd): I was way off here. I thought it would take one more year for them to figure things out, and it hasn't. Partially, I think the West is just not as strong as everyone thought it would be, but let's also give the Rockets a lot of credit. They play hard, and they stick to their strengths. This isn't their final form, and depending on how they pivot – whether that's now at the trade deadline or in the offseason – they could experience the same kind of regression Minnesota is experiencing this season, but I think they'll remain a force. I don't think this is a fluke. There's no chance they fall back to ninth.

8th - LA Lakers (6th): A single game separates sixth and eighth place, and I am confident the Lakers will slide back a little and land here. Anthony Davis has played 36 of 39 games, and the Lakers still rank 28th in the NBA in total rebounds per game. Imagine if he misses a week or two. It doesn't even need to be a significant injury. For LeBron, either. Austin Reaves is the only other player currently on the roster averaging more than 10 field goal attempts per game.

7th - Phoenix (10th): I really wanted to put Phoenix lower at the beginning of the season, but enough pundits I respect were still putting them in their top four that I caved and moved them up to seventh. I really wish I hadn't. This team is terrible, and I actually think there's a decent chance they fall out of the play-in altogether. If Kevin Durant gets hurt again, it could get ugly in a hurry. If I was Phoenix, I would trade Devin Booker (who, unlike Durant, actually has serious trade value) and start over. Otherwise they'll be in NBA purgatory for the next decade. Is keeping Booker really worth a decade of misery? He's not that good. He probably won't even be an All-Star this season given Phoenix's place in the standings. Trade him now before the rest of the league figures out he's not that special. I don't see Phoenix getting back up to seventh.

6th - Sacramento (9th): It's been an incredibly strange year for the Kings, but they are within two games of the six seed, and perfectly capable of getting there. I'm still optimistic they will.

5th - Memphis (3rd): I think Denver is perfectly capable of passing Memphis and knocking them down to the four seed, but unless the Mavs rip off like 15 straight wins when Luka Dončić returns, I find it hard to believe Memphis slides back to fifth. Still, I think they're more or less where I expected them to be, and they're fun to watch again.

4th - Minnesota (8th): I still remain eager to see Anthony Edwards as a leader, but the early returns have not exactly been stellar. Maybe the media can hold their powder on claiming him as the next great American superstar, especially since they already have that player in Jayson Tatum. I think Minnesota can make it back into the top six, but I would be surprised if they climbed all the way up to fourth at this point. I'll leave the door open a little if they trade Julius Randle and the vibes improve.

3rd - Denver (4th): They are rolling again, and I do think they'll end up in third or fourth place.

2nd - Dallas (7th): Injuries have been a problem, as has the fact that Klay Thompson is just no longer an impact player. Up through the Christmas Day game where Luka got hurt, Thompson averaged 14.3 points on .422/.391 shooting and 12.1 field goal attempts per game in 26 contests. In his 11 since, he's shooting even less – 11.6 FGA per game. And he's averaging just 12.5 points on .383/.349 shooting. In other words, he's now a complimentary piece, and not someone who can take over a game by himself. The Mavs needed him to be more than that, because he's not a standout defensive player any more. Dallas should recover and move up into the top six when Luka gets healthy, and I think they're still one of two teams in the West capable of reaching the NBA Finals this season, but I don't think they sniff the two seed.

1st - Oklahoma City (1st): This one was too obvious. Having said that, I still don't think they can win the NBA Finals, because it's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and 11 guys who want to foul the shit out of you. That works in the regular season, but it didn't work in the playoffs last season, and I don't think it'll work this season. Jalen Williams has regressed badly as a shooter now that teams are paying attention to him – .540/.427/.814 and a .592 eFG% last season, and .475/.338/.781 and a .525 eFG% this season. He's got a long way to go to being a Scottie Pippen/Jaylen Brown running mate.

Eastern Conference

(projected pick - team (current place))

15th - Brooklyn (12th): I mean, it's not impossible, but sinking lower than Washington will be hard to do.

14th - Washington (15th): Again, they're trying hard to lose, and will probably finish with the worst record in the NBA.

13th - Detroit (8th): I'm actually thrilled to be wrong, and mad that I didn't extend my faith in Cade Cunningham one more season. While it will be tough for them to climb higher, I think they're capable of it in a vacuum. They are a lot of fun to watch.

12th - Chicago (10th): Them sliding back to 12th is definitely still in play, and with four straight losses they seem to be letting go of the rope a little.

11th - Charlotte (13th): I had them in the right bucket (below the play in), and they may climb to 11th if Brooklyn and Chicago tank hard, but I think they'll probably top out at 12th, so I won't be precisely correct here.

10th - Toronto (14th): What a Jekkyl and Hyde team. They should be better than 14th, but at this point it would be foolish to expect a big win streak to help them jump in the standings.

9th - Atlanta (7th): Immensely fun, but they just need much better center play. If they can get that, they'd really have a chance to be a legit threat to get back to the Conference Finals. As is, it's hard to see them winning one round, and certainly not two. But I don't think they'll drop further down than eighth place, if they drop at all.

8th - Cleveland (1st): I will say that I don't think they should trade for Cam Johnson, as it would take two of their rotation players to do so, and possibly their last few remaining draft picks. Also, you shouldn't mess with a team that's 34-6.

7th - Orlando (6th): They're a half-game ahead of sixth place. This team plays incredibly hard, but that may be as much a bug as it is a feature. Their major injuries to Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs may not have happened if they could find a better "work smarter not harder" balance. Banchero is back now, but regression is coming for them anyway, and both Atlanta and Detroit are super frisky. I don't think Orlando is assured a top-six seed. I could see this going either way, and it mostly depends on health.

6th - Milwaukee (4th): They're playing a lot better lately, but are only 1.5 games ahead of the six seed. They have a losing record on the road, and have played four more home games than road games, and they still have to play 10 of their 16 back-to-backs. Eight of their next 11 games are on the road, a stretch that will include three back-to-backs. As quickly as they have risen to the four seed, they may just as quickly drop back a little. I'm confident I still have them pegged correctly.

5th - Miami (9th): If there's one thing I regret predicting, it was that Jimmy Butler would lock back in and play his best. That was incredibly foolish, as him being a delusional jackass was always the most likely outcome, since he's been that same delusional jackass with his other three teams. He's torpedoed their season, and I think the only way they can trade him is if they decide they just want him out of the building. Even then, I think it's going to be nearly impossible. The most likely outcome is they don't trade him, and pay him to go away for the next year and a half, as bleak as that sounds.

4th - Philadelpha (11th): I also wish I had pegged just how washed Paul George would be. I did mention Joel Embiid missing 15-30 games (he's at 26 games missed and will blow past 30 in the next week or two), but I didn't peg that George would both be hurt and suck. I did mention they had too many new guys, most of whom it turns out, suck. And I noted they were deeply unserious. But if George was playing like he did last year, they wouldn't be the 11 seed. Not that I mind!

3rd - Indiana (5th): Don't look now, but here come the Pacers! They're only 3.5 games behind the Knicks for the three seed, and just a game behind Milwaukee for the four seed. I actually think this team needs Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith as much as they need Tyrese Haliburton, and they have the former two now. Take this team lightly at your own peril. The schedule is also lining up nicely, as their next five games are all very winnable home games, and then they go out to the west coast for four very winnable games there as well. They've also played six more road games than home games.

2nd - New York (3rd): Certainly, getting to the two seed is within the realm of possibility, but if you go back and look at who they've beaten and who they haven't, you lose a lot of confidence in this team. And it's not just me saying that. Clyde Frazier said the same thing on the Knicks broadcast as the Knicks let go of the rope in the fourth quarter against the visiting Timberwolves, which was the Knicks' fourth loss in their last six home games.

1st - Boston (2nd): For the last month, the C's have not really locked in, and you can often tell right away. Frequently, the only player giving their all are Jayson Tatum – whose consistency in both performance and effort is truly remarkable – and Payton Pritchard. The shooting will come back around as it did last night. The effort needs to stay at a high level. I think the upcoming road trip will once again be helpful.

Summary

So far, not bad. Not great, but not bad. Given how frequently the standings change, even at this point in the season, all of this may change, and change quickly. But the bottom line is that I've only been egregiously wrong about six teams, and two (Dallas and Philadelphia) are due to injuries, and few people had the other four teams pegged where they are, so I feel pretty good about that. And of the teams I'm three to four spots away on, I think there's a good chance that four of them (all but Phoenix and Miami) will move closer to where I predicted them to be.

Can't wait to see how the rest of the season goes!

• Pegged exactly (3): Utah, Golden State, Oklahoma City
• Within one spot (6): Portland, Denver, Washington, Orlando, New York, Boston
• Within two spots (9): New Orleans, San Antonio, LA Lakers, Memphis, Chicago, Charlotte, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Indiana
• Three to four spots away (6): Phoenix, Sacramento, Minnesota, Brooklyn, Toronto, Miami
• Five or more spots away (6): LA Clippers, Houston, Dallas, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia