Belated Playoff Questions & Predictions
I hate getting these out after games have already been played, but it couldn't be avoided. I have one question and a prediction for each first-round series, and then a little bit more.
Boston v. Miami - Can Miami Find Enough Offense?
I'm pretty sure the answer is no. The C's are going to target Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson on defense, which will make it very difficult to keep them both on the floor at the same time, and with Jimmy Butler out, there is no reason to double team anyone on Miami. Which means fewer open threes for them. Erik Spoelstra is crafty enough to get one game, but I don't think they will. Celtics in 4.
New York v. Philly - Will Joel Embiid Ever Step Up?
I wish I had as many people making excuses for me in my life as Joel Embiid does. Yesterday, he played the victim card to a T once again by getting hurt on a play that was irresponsible to begin with, especially for a player with a gimpy knee. That aside, he was the same player he's always been. He shot 5-for-9 from the field in the first quarter, and then 3-for-13 the rest of the game. He drew six free throws in the fourth quarter, and he hit them all. But they were his only points, as he shot 0-for-5 from the field in the fourth quarter of a very winnable game, and got big boyed a couple of times by Mitchell Robinson. No matter what has changed in Philly over the past decade, the constant has been Embiid not performing late in important games. Knicks in 7.
Milwaukee v. Indiana - Can the Bucks run?
I don't think they can. I think they are old and/or slow, and that Indiana is going to run them off the court. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton combine for one throwback game to keep this from being a sweep. Pacers in 5.
Cleveland v. Orlando - Are the Magic ready?
This is about as favorable a first-round matchup as Orlando could have hoped for, and Cleveland deserves absolutely no good karma for throwing their game against Charlotte on the final day of the season. However, I'm just not sure the Magic are ready. They've had a remarkable turnaround going from 13th in the East last year to fifth this year, but I think that's all the turnaround they can handle. At least until Franz Wagner remembers how to shoot 3's. That said, they'll make it tough on Cleveland. Cavs in 7.
Oklahoma City v. New Orleans - Is there a reason for me to care?
Without Zion Williamson, the answer is no. Thunder in 4.
Denver v. LA Lakers - Is Darvin Ham trying to get fired?
Who knows, maybe he is, and that he has a wink-wink agreement with Giannis to go back and coach the Bucks next season. It sure seemed like he was trying to get fired in Game 1. There is no conceivable way Ham should be leaving D'Angelo Russell or Austin Reaves to guard Jamal Murray late in a close game. They are both awful, awful, awful defenders. Gabe Vincent was signed for just this purpose. But if Ham isn't going to play Vincent on a night when Russell is shooting 6-for-20, then he has to get creative and put LeBron on Murray. LeBron stood there doing nothing in the corner in the fourth quarter last night, "guarding" Aaron Gordon. The Lakers simply cannot win this way. And honestly, Murray might be an easier assignment for LeBron than trying to contain an active, Mack-truck-like Gordon. Nuggets in 5.
Minnesota v. Phoenix - Can the Wolves stay disciplined enough to exploit the Suns' lack of interior defense?
Yesterday, the answer was yes. I think of Minnesota's offense at this point as akin to a box and one. The one, Anthony Edwards, can do whatever he needs to do. The other four starters need to be fitting into the game plan. And the game plan against Phoenix has to be pounding it inside. Jusuf Nurkic is not a great defender on his best day, and he's all Phoenix has. In some matchups, Kevin Durant can be a force inside defensively. But against Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid, he's drawing dead. The Suns shoot well enough that they'll steal a game or two, but if the non-superstar Wolves starters hold their line, they'll win. Yesterday, those four starters – Gobert, Towns, Jaden McDaniels, and Mike Conley – only took three's on seven of their 34 shots. Mission accomplished. Wolves in 6.
LA Clippers v. Dallas - Can the Mavericks keep winning efficiently?
Even with a healthy Kawhi Leonard, I think Dallas is the more talented team overall at this point, and LA seemingly does not even have a healthy Kawhi Leonard (I feel shocked!). The question is will Dallas keep playing the way they've been playing, or will they allow themselves to get bogged down, or will Jason Kidd start making idiotic decisions again the first time the pressure gets real? I have absolutely no faith in his ability to make correct decisions for six weeks straight, but he'll probably be OK in this one. Mavs in 6.
And Then
Then the fun really starts:
East:
- Celtics over Cavs in 5
- Knicks over Pacers in 7
- Celtics over Knicks in 5
West:
- Thunder over Mavericks in 7 (what a series this would be)
- Wolves over Nuggets in 7 (ditto)
- Thunder over Wolves in 6
NBA Finals:
- Celtics over Thunder in 5
My two predictions I believed in the most before the season were that the Celtics would win the NBA Finals in five games, and that the Nuggets would lose in the second round. I am sticking with them.
I cannot shake the feeling that Denver is a) thin, b) been fucking around a lot this season, and c) very much challenged by Minnesota, who can throw their three centers at Jokic, plus Kyle Anderson. None of them does a great job, but all are capable of defending him without fouling and without needing a double team, and against Denver that is most of the battle, as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. are not good enough creators to consistently get off good shots when they're covered. That is even more true of Peyton Watson and Christian Braun, and Reggie Jackson is a quintessential trick-or-treat player. On the other end, Minnesota's big guys are capable of getting Jokic and Gordon in foul trouble, and Denver has literally no other competent big men if they do.
On the Celtics side, you know how I feel. I predicted a 62-win season even before the Jrue Holiday trade. They won 64 games, and if it was necessary, they probably would have won 67 or 68. They didn't need to, and now come into the playoffs rested, confident, and in line to play teams who have been compromised by injury in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs. No matter who wins the West, that team won't be able to say that.
It's going to be a great ~two months of FANtastic NBA playoff action!