2025 Playoff Predictions

Just like Christmas, the wait feels interminable, and then all of a sudden it's here in a flash. Playoffs!!! They really start today!!! They may already be underway by the time you read this. Let's do this.

First Round: Western Conference

1 Oklahoma City vs. Memphis: At one point in tonight's play-in game, Dallas cut Memphis' lead to seven, and Dallas didn't even have a point guard. Thunder in four.

2 Houston vs. 7 Golden State: Please know that Ime Udoka has been here before. In his first season as Celtics coach, he guided a young team to a 51-31 record and the two seed. No one believed in them. They were playing the seven-seed Brooklyn Nets, who had Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Surely their championship experience was going to win the day. But then Marcus Smart locked Kyrie's ass up, and Jayson Tatum locked Kevin Durant's ass up. Durant hasn't been the same since – one playoff series win in four seasons. Look at what little oxygen Kyrie and Durant get on their final offensive possession:

The game is exactly the same right now. If you think that Udoka is preaching deference to Warriors exceptionalism to his young charges, you have several other things coming. Ime Udoka isn't going to be scared, and neither will his Rockets.

A lot has been made of the Rockets' inability to generate offense this season. But the Warriors defense is not built to exploit those weaknesses. Draymond Green is five inches shorter than Alperen Şengün. Jalen Green is both faster and taller than Stephen Curry. Neither player is going to have any trouble getting their shots off in this series. The Warriors will win a couple of games on the strength of them now getting the friendliest whistle in the game all of a sudden, but they're not built to run with this team for seven games. Rockets in seven.

3 LA Lakers vs. 6 Minnesota: There was going to be a tough, really unfair draw for someone. This season, it's the Timberwolves. Last year, Luka Dončić annihilated a better T'Wolves team in five games with only Kyrie as a legit running mate. This season, he has LeBron James and Austin Reaves in tow. Lakers in five.

4 Denver vs. 5 LA Clippers: Last season, the Nuggets season ended early because Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker hounded Jamal Murray into career-worst production. His 18.4 points per game were his worst of his 11 playoff series. This season, he gets to deal with Kawhi Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr., and Kris Dunn. It's not going to go any better for him. And when he isn't good, the Nuggets are DOA. Clippers in 7.

First Round: Eastern Conference

1 Cleveland vs. 8 Miami: Davion Mitchell has played out of his mind for the past six weeks, Tyler Herro has been consistently a level above his prior career norms this season, and Bam Adebayo has rounded back into shape at just the right time. It won't matter. Cavaliers in five.

2 Boston vs. 7 Orlando: I am tempted to predict a sweep. Certainly, the Celtics are capable of one. I can't think of a great reason why Orlando would steal a game. But in the past couple of years, there has rarely been logic to the Celtics' early-round playoff losses. Celtics in five.

3 New York vs. 6 Detroit: A couple of weeks ago, I was ready to predict Detroit for the upset here. They have no fear of the Knicks. But despite one of their final wins coming against New York to run their season tally to 3-1 vs. them, with three straight wins, I think the fact that they dropped six of their final eight games is a bad omen. The losses came to Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Memphis, Sacramento, and Milwaukee twice. The wins came against Toronto, and a Knicks team resting OG Anunoby and Josh Hart. In other words, Detroit hasn't been beating good competition for a little bit here. I think it'll be a long, competitive series, but I think the Knicks get it done. Knicks in seven.

4 Indiana vs. 5 Milwaukee: I honestly don't think it matters whether Damian Lillard plays. Indiana is not just a better team, they're a much better team, and they can beat you in multiple ways. This version of Milwaukee hasn't proven that they can. Pacers in six.

Conference Semifinals

1 Oklahoma City vs. 5 LA Clippers: If Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are still healthy by the time this series starts, it'll be very entertaining, but even if they are, I don't think the Clippers have that one additional gear to stay with OKC. Thunder in six.

2 Houston vs. 3 LA Lakers: Father Time will come for LeBron James someday, but it isn't this season. Lakers in six.

1 Cleveland vs. 4 Indiana: I think this will be the best second-round series, an instant classic with tons of offense and ridiculous shot making. And I think Cleveland will do just enough to escape with the victory. Cleveland in seven.

2 Boston vs. 3 New York: Before the season, I thought this series would be the conference finals:

1 Boston over 2 New York: Getting here will be a huge achievement for the Knicks. They haven't reached the conference finals since they made the NBA Finals in 1999. People will be super primed for a long series. And after the Knicks take Game 2 in Boston, emotions and tension will be very high. And then the C's will win the next three.

The only difference I see in this prediction is that it will occur in the second round. Celtics in five.

Conference Finals

1 Oklahoma City vs. 3 LA Lakers: If you had to pick right now one player to start a team, who are you taking – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Luka Dončić? SGA had a phenomenal season, but that doesn't really change the equation in my mind – I'd still take Luka. Either way, if you have to think about it for even a minute, if you waver at all, then suddenly OKC's 68 wins matter a lot less than you might otherwise think.

The strangest thing about this season by far – BY FAR! – is how the big trade has turned me into a Luka apologist. Last season, I wrote two pieces that focused on Luka. They were entitled "What Luka Lacks and Other News," and "Does Your Triple Double Matter If You Got Your Ass Kicked?" In the NBA Finals last year, I didn't shy away from pointing out Luka's mistakes, including when he made Al Horford mad, which is just about the dumbest thing that you can do.

And yet, Luka has never been anything but a top five player in this league. Maybe top 10 his first year or two. Trading him was historically dumb, and I think he is out for vengeance. And if you subscribe to the theory that the best player in the series has the edge, then the Lakers have the edge here. And the way Dončić had OKC's bigs on a string in their games a couple of weeks ago tells me that OKC's height advantage may not amount to much.

This won't be a short series, but over the second half of the season, the Lakers have really honed in on their eight guys, and a strategy for how they want to attack each game. JJ Redick has done a fantastic job, and I believe LeBron James has one last dominant stretch in him.

And yet, I picked OKC in the preseason, and not much has changed to make them undeserving of that pick. I had chosen them to beat Dallas, figuring Luka would get Dallas back to the conference finals. I still think Luka will do that, just now he's going to do it for the Lakers.

Ultimately, I think this series comes down to Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Austin Reaves doesn't have a lot of playoff experience, but I'm not too worried about him performing when it matters. I am confident that guys like Gabe Vincent and Alex Caruso will make their contributions. And obviously I'm not worried about LeBron. But OKC isn't going to win without Holmgren and Williams playing well. Last year, Holmgren in particular struggled in the second round. Will he/they be better?

Honestly, my gut says Lakers here, but I chose OKC in the preseason, and I'll stick with that. But Luka vs. Shai is setting up to be an incredible rivalry. Thunder in seven.

1 Cleveland vs. 2 Boston: Jayson Tatum this season vs. Cleveland – 33.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 6.8 assists, on .450/.405/.826 shooting in 37.7 minutes per game, which is a playoff-like workload that should translate. I just don't see the Celtics losing if Tatum plays that way, and I wouldn't call the odds great even if he doesn't.

If Jaylen Brown isn't effective, this will be a far tougher series, but I think that the Celtics have enough firepower to get this done. They beat the Cavs in five last season without Kristaps Porziņģis, and honestly, sometimes the C's offense flows better when Tatum is unquestionably running the show. Celtics in six.

NBA Finals

Celtics vs. Thunder: I've made the case before that the Thunder are more vulnerable than they seem because they're too Shai-centric. If you can stop him, they don't have enough offensive creation. Lu Dort and Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins look fantastic when they're getting open kick outs. But if the Celtics are able to smother Shai one on one, keep him from spraying out to wide open shooters because they can defend without collapsing the defense, and keep him off the line – because over a seven-game series, you get used to the foul baiting and stop falling for it – then I'm not sure OKC will have a devastating counterpunch. And I believe the Celtics can do that.

The defense of Derrick White and Jrue Holiday is going to be incredibly key to this postseason run, and Tatum will chip in too, because he covers little guys well. They get a nice warmup with Cole Anthony, and then it's Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I believe they will win each and every matchup, because they're both incredible defenders (as is Tatum). And on the flip side? Well, like I said the other day, the key to playoff success is to be able to defend without fouling. Lu Dort and Cason Wallace are incredible defenders. But they are incredible because they get in your shirt and are physical/foul you on most every possession. And again, I don't think that strategy holds up during a high-profile, seven-game series.

Celtics in six.