2025-2026 NBA Predictions

The thing about making good predictions is that you have to be able to see past your biases to do them well. It's a thing I've often been not great at. I always want to predict success for my favorite teams, and failure for my least favorite teams. I always want to predict upsets, particularly in the playoffs, because predicting chalk is boring. But you know, sometimes boring is correct. Look at the MLB playoffs – this is the first season in a long time where no wild card team reached the LCS. It happens, sometimes!

The key, I think, to this season, is how deep your team is. How many people can you trust on a particular team to play real minutes? Star talent still matters, but if you don't have a ninth, 10th, 11 guy that you can trust, you could be in trouble.

The only thing I can tell you for certain is that most of this will be wrong. But the beauty of this exercise is just thinking about the league as a whole, and seeing how you think the league stacks up. Let's get to it!

Western Conference

15th - Utah: I really did want to have them higher. I think they will be fun to watch, if nothing else. But the trouble with getting rid of nearly all of the adults in the room is that you're left with just kids (and Lauri Markkanen, though a lot of smart people think he's going to be traded), and while some of them may be really great, it probably isn't going to help them this season.

14th - Phoenix: Just no. The further we get from the 2021 NBA Finals, the harder it gets to see it as anything other than an aberration. Devin Booker is now 5-4 in playoff series for his career, and it's going to be awhile before he gets to play another one in Phoenix.

13th - Sacramento: The position they have the most depth is at guard – Dennis Schröder, Zach LaVine, Malik Monk, Keon Ellis, and Devin Carter are all worthy of minutes. The latter three are essentially their only three reliable reserves. So of course they're still talking about signing Russell Westbrook. Nothing about this team makes sense, and they're going in the wrong direction.

12th - New Orleans: This is where I pegged them last year. They did worse. They're still thin, and some of the guys they're counting on are rookies and/or Jordan Poole. Even if Trey Murphy III (62 games or fewer in three of his four seasons) Zion Williamson (61 games or fewer in four of his five seasons, including three with 30 or fewer) and Herbert Jones (20 games played last season) all stay healthy (a big if), I don't see it.

11th - Memphis: They're already banged up, and they're not a great bet to be good even healthy. A lot of the rationale I've heard for their success is "well they've always won games in the past." And that just doesn't play. Jock Landale is going to figure prominently here for awhile. Not great, Bob!

10th - Portland: This is a team that makes sense now. It has depth and it has quality. It lacks star talent, at least for now. Damian Lillard may help next season, but they have other candidates on the team who could make a leap. And if they want to make a move this season, they have tradeable salaries and just about all of their own draft picks to bring in a star. I have them here because I just have my eye on them. I'm hopeful. That's a big change from the past few seasons. For now, that's enough.

9th - LA Clippers: The one contradiction to depth is when the depth is all old. The Clippers may field the oldest team ever. And they also brought in John Collins and Bradley Beal in full on prove-it mode. There's a chance they prove they're worth a big new contract by playing solid, team basketball, but if I had to bet, it'd be on them doing the opposite.

8th - Golden State: The Warriors were great down the stretch when they galvanized behind Jimmy Butler, and a lot of people are just kind of assuming they will do the same thing again this season. But again, it doesn't really work that way. You can't play "backs against the wall" for a full 82 games, and this is also an old team that got even older when they brought in Al Horford. I love Al Horford. I didn't want him to leave. But that was mostly an emotional response. If you look at Horford's offensive stats, it's harder to see him as a difference maker.

In 2022-2023 and 2023-2024, Big Al had an eFG% of .633, which ranked ninth out of the 174 players who logged at least 3,000 minutes across those two seasons. Last season, he had an eFG% of .547, which ranked 89th out of the 178 players who logged at least 1,500 minutes. That's still a quality player, but a far less effective one, and that was in an environment where he was in his fourth season with the same group and where his minutes were managed extra carefully. And that's before we get to all the extra running.

Beyond this, the Warriors don't have a ton of depth. Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, and Jonathan Kuminga will factor prominently off the bench, but beyond that it's health question marks like Gary Payton II and De'Anthon Melton, and G-Leaguers like Quentin Post and Gui Santos. This team is going to feel it in any game where Stephen Curry or Jimmy Butler are out.

7th - Dallas: The Mavericks, meanwhile, run incredibly deep with quality players. Caleb Martin is the 10th man here, and possibly the 11th when Dante Exum is healthy. This team is going to be really tough defensively, and if Cooper Flagg is even half the player people think, they could be solid offensively as well. I toyed with having them higher, but I think they'll be held back just enough by the lack of dynamic offensive creation. I just don't want to bank on a rookie like that.

6th - LA Lakers: I can't imagine any team with Luka Dončić that is trying to win finishing worse than this. Since 2020, his teams have finished fifth, fourth, 11th (when they tanked to keep their own pick), fifth, and third. So this is probably a little low. But as good as Dončić is, his team is still thin, and the teams I put above him have star players that are least in Dončić's neighborhood.

5th - Minnesota: A lot of people are more bullish on Minnesota than I am. A lot of the arguments are "they made it to the Conference Finals in consecutive seasons!" But go back and look at those four series' they won. The series against Denver was an all-time great series, but it was also an aberration. Phoenix entered their first-round series with Minnesota two seasons ago with their bags already packed. Yes, the T-Wolves wore down a tired, thin, and beat up Lakers team last season, but it was ugly. They shot .441/.323/.762 for the series. They basically shot like Julian Phillips for a whole series, and won anyway. And then the Warriors played most of their season without Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. Winning is all that matters, and they won those games, but I just don't think those past series' prove they're going to do it again.

To be honest, I had them at sixth until it was reported that LeBron James would miss the first few weeks of the season. I am not bullish, and think they are just as thin as the Lakers, and thinner than the four teams I have above them. I guess what I'm saying is that I see fifth as Minnesota's ceiling, and could easily see them slipping further back.

4th - San Antonio: Yes, FOURTH. They're functionally a deeper team than both the Lakers and Timberwolves, and I think the Spurs have so much room for growth. I think this is the year they unleash themselves on the league. Victor Wembanyama went to Hakeem School, and looks primed for his third season breakout. And if they want, they can cobble together ~$32 million in the expiring contracts of Harrison Barnes and Kelly Olynyk, and ~$50M in contracts that expire if you add Keldon Johnson. None of these three are core players. So if there's a disgruntled star who just wants out, or a team that wants to clear their books, San Antonio remains in play to make a big trade. Get ready.

3rd - Denver: If there's a surprise, it's that I have Denver third instead of second. I am very high on Denver this season. Truly! I think they're going to be awesome. I'm just that much higher on the Rockets, because while I think the Nuggets are going to be awesome on offense and the Rockets will be awesome on defense, I think if I had to choose between one unit to be more successful between Denver's defense and Houston's offense, I'll take the latter.

Also, you and I both know that Jamal Murray isn't going to play a full season. After playing 75+ games in each of his first three seasons, Murray has played 59, 48, 0, 65, 59, and 67 games in the last six seasons. Even if you're generous and divide that 298 total games played in the last six seasons by five and omit the season he missed entirely from the equation, it's still an average of under 60 games per season. And while Bruce Brown Jr. can capably man point guard for 10-15 minutes at a time, the entire reason he flamed out so quickly in Indiana and Toronto is because he can't do it for longer than that.

In general, Denver has never been a juggernaut regular-season team. Their high-water mark was 57 wins two seasons ago. For comparison, the Celtics won at least 57 games each of the past three seasons. The regular season is just not as big of a thing for Nikola Jokić. He's a little too casual, and it has cost them. They had really stupid losses toward the end of the last two seasons. Last March, they lost a home game to the Wizards, and then in April another home game to a Spurs team that started Bismack Biyombo, since Victor Wembanyama was out. In 2023-2024, they lost their penultimate game to rookie Wemby in San Antonio. He put up 34-12-5 and reacted like he'd won the championship. It cost Denver seeding, and that seeding would lead them to Minnesota, who knocked them out.

At some point, you have to believe players when they tell you who they are. The Nuggets are going to be really good again – they may win 57 or more this season – but they'll win one fewer than Houston, and it's going to once again cost them.

2nd - Houston: I think we've become numb to Kevin Durant in a couple of respects. One, how good he still is, individually. And two, that he can ever really change a team's fortunes. He didn't change the fortunes for Brooklyn or Phoenix – at least not for the better. And yet. AND YET. Durant has been .500/.400/.800 each of the past three seasons, and in four of the past five seasons. There are only four other players who have hit these marks in four or more seasons at all, and of them, only Steve Nash and John Stockton have ever done it in three consecutive seasons.

This is what Houston needed. Durant is going to fix so much of their offense. Durant still possesses gravity, as does Alperen Şengün. That is going to make life much easier for the other three players. And when the other three players are effective cutters like Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Jabari Smith Jr. (and I expect this to be their closing lineup), then offense may not be much of a problem. Their starting lineup may be Durant, Şengün, Smith, Thompson, and Steven Adams. Who, exactly, is going to score on this offense? Durant can even take plays off on defense, and they'll still be elite. That's not something that has ever been true before.

When Houston unleased their double big defense in the first round, it gave Golden State fits, and they have one of the best scorers of all-time. Stephen Curry needed to play 45 minutes to vanquish Houston in Game 7 (and that game, the second-highest non-overtime tally of Curry's postseason career, immediately cost him a pulled muscle injury in the second round that handed Minnesota that series). But Houston could only run double bigs part of the time, because it was just Şengün and Adams. Now, they also have Clint Capela to rotate in if they want to play it for all 48 minutes.

With the diminutive Fred Van Vleet on the shelf, Houston's defense is going to be that much more unleashed. Without him, they're unreasonably humungous, as Michael Pina said yesterday. Yes, it may take Thompson some time to get used to organizing the offense, but Durant will bring the ball up plenty, and Şengün will trigger the offense when it matters. That is clarity they didn't have last season, because Van Vleet had the veteran presence to demand the ball. And far too often, he failed.

1st - Oklahoma City: OKC returns everyone, and has the continuity and belief to once again roll through the regular season unchallenged. There isn't much more to say. They are playing themselves as they try to repeat.

Eastern Conference

15 - Brooklyn: They're not even pretending to care about competing this season.

14 - Washington: They'll be more exciting to watch than the three teams I have ranked ahead of them, but they're still at least a year away from being a year away.

13 - Chicago: The bottom is quietly starting to come into focus here, especially if they trade Nikola Vučević. They're horribly thin, and they don't even have a player I could conceive of becoming a star.

12 - Toronto: I wonder how many seasons it will be before the Raptors admit that Scottie Barnes is not capable of being the best player on a contending team. It's nearly impossible to be the best guy on a contending team if you can't shoot in any era of the NBA, but especially this era. The sad thing is he's still under contract for four more seasons after this one, so they may not be able to admit it to themselves for quite some time.

11 - Philadelphia: This is a perilously thin team even if Joel Embiid and Paul George are healthy. And they're not. Jared McCain is also hurt again already, and behind the starting lineup, Kyle Lowry, Eric Gordon, and Andre Drummond occupy meaningful parts of the depth chart, and all three have been cooked for at least two seasons.

10 - Charlotte: Charles Lee's first season in Charlotte was a hot mess, and mostly not of his making. But he's too good of a coach to be kept down. The team is actually rounding into form. The front court is thin, but LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel makes a lot of sense 1-3, with Colin Sexton a great guy to have coming off the bench in any one of those spots. You can squint and see a competitive team here, and that's an encouraging sign for a team that hasn't had much optimism in a long time.

9 - Indiana: Lots of people want to bury the Pacers and Celtics, but look at the teams I have ranked behind them and tell me who's really going to do better? Pascal Siakam is still here, and I already planted my flag on Andrew Nembhard being capable of being an All-Star. They're going to win a lot of games just be running and being tenacious (Benedict Mathurin Contract Year loading), though I think ultimately, they won't have enough firepower on nights when they are resting guys. And losing TJ McConnell for a month is going to hurt too.

8 - Milwaukee: Kevin Porter Jr. and Kyle Kuzma are going to factor prominently on this team. I don't mean that as a compliment. I don't think people really understand just how much the core around Giannis Antetokounmpo has degraded. In fact, it's degraded to the point where there really isn't a core around him. Krhis Middleton is not walking through that door. Jrue Holiday is not walking through that door. Brook Lopez is not walking through that door. Damian Lillard is not walking through that door.

Who, exactly, are the players that the Bucks absolutely wouldn't trade to improve this team beyond Giannis? Not even Myles Turner qualifies. The only one you could even squint and make the argument for is A.J. Green, and he's never even averaged eight points per game before. Giannis can only do so much, and this season, without Holiday or Lillard to throw him lobs three-four times a game, when he looks around and sees that it's 100% on him...this will be his last season in Milwaukee. There's just nothing left.

7 - Miami: I was all ready to put them in the top six until Tyler Herro got hurt. While he may only miss the first 12 games, it's foot surgery for a guy whose footwork is everything. Herro doesn't overpower anyone, and he's not exactly a speedster either. He beats you with footwork and positioning, and so it's probably going to take him some time to get his feet under him, pun very much intended.

Much like Dallas, the Heat have a lot of quality players, but they don't have a ton of star quality offense. Norm Powell will help, but he can't always create for himself. Neither can Bam Adebayo, who takes a lot of bail out 15-footers after no better option presents itself. This is why I'm so intrigued by Davion Mitchell, because if he can reliably initiate the offense, it'll do wonders. We'll see. I think Mitchell can reliably hit his three's and be great on defense. I'm less bullish on the passing/creation piece.

6 - Boston: This will almost certainly be the worst Celtics team since the 2020-2021 team that went 36-36. That season, Jayson Tatum only played 64 games, Jaylen Brown only played 58, Marcus Smart only played 48, and Kemba Walker only played 43. The latter was the biggest thing, as Walker didn't play back-to-backs, but when he did play he was often the focal point of the offense, so the team basically had to constantly employ two different game plans. It was exhausting.

I believe this season will come down to how well the C's survive the two things that Jayson Tatum provides more than any other. The first is simple – defensive rebounding. Only seven players pulled down more defensive rebounds than Tatum last season – five centers, Giannis, and Josh Hart. You could see in the last two preseason games that coach Joe Mazzulla was immediately benching players for missing what he deemed gettable defensive boards, and he spoke about it after the Cleveland game. It's going to be a problem all season – Cleveland didn't even play a center, and they pulled down 21 offensive boards – and only solved with total team focus.

The second is how well one of the starters – presumably Jaylen Brown, but Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Anfernee Simons are also possibilities – do with the bench units. One of the staples of the last couple of seasons was that in the latter half of each of the first three quarters, the team would often play "Tatum + Bench" lineups – ie, Tatum and four bench guys. This elongated the bench, and kept the starters fresh. Jaylen, historically, has not been anywhere near as successful as quarterbacking these units, but he was a little better at it last season.

I think most people will think this is a delusional prediction to have the C's up this high, but the C's are going to really push tempo this season, and pressure the ball on the other side. I think they are going to work every single advantage that they can to get shots up quickly and get themselves more possessions and math their way past teams like Milwaukee and Miami. Is that going to help them in the playoffs? No, it isn't. And I think expectations there need to be kept in check even when Tatum comes back (it seems now like it's a "when," and not an "if"). But until then, I think they're going to be a really entertaining team to watch, and as much as I hate to admit it, more entertaining than they were last year, when the pace really wore on some of my friends who are avid Celtics watchers.

5 - Orlando: I am always going to be lower on Orlando until they prove they can win a playoff series. They haven't yet, and the last two seasons, they lost to broken teams in Cleveland and Boston who immediately got smoked in their next series. I will keep reiterating that I think Orlando is doomed on offense with no point guard. Beyond that, their shooting guard depth is thin enough that they may need to rely on rookie Jase Richardson to play legit minutes, or just play bigger. Either solution seems like a shaky recipe to improve their putrid shooting (as a reminder, their 3PT% ranked deader than dead last, and their FG%, eFG%, and TS% all ranked in the bottom four last season) and certainly not where you want to be when you're supposed to be a title contender.

4 - Detroit: I think the Pistons are going to steal Orlando's thunder. Not only do their lineups make more sense and give them more options, but unlike Orlando – where Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are constantly jockeying to key the offense in crunch time – there is no battle here. This is Cade Cunningham's team, and everything will flow through him. They should be even better working Jaden Ivey into the mix, and Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson can be just as dangerous offensively as Malik Beasley was last season. I think Detroit is going to be a factor for years to come, and that starts in earnest this season.

I also want to plant my flag once again on being high on Ausar Thompson. With Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. gone, I think he plays a lot more minutes this season, and hopefully he plays the full season (he only played 59 games last season). Watch out.

3 - Atlanta: With the addition of Nickeil Alexander-Walker – my most intriguing player in the East this season – they look like a complete, deep team. Even if Kristaps Porzingis is his usual unreliable self, they still have Onyeka Okongwu, Mouhamed Gueye, rookie Asa Newell, and Charles Bassey waiting in the wings. And don't underestimate Trae Young playing for a new contract. There are real stakes for Young this year. Earning an All-Star nod and getting his team at least one playoff series win could net him $50-75M that he might not earn with another lackluster campaign. The Hawks have missed the playoffs each of the past two seasons, and didn't escape the first round in the two seasons before that, winning just three games total in those two series. It's put up or shut up time for this iteration of the Hawks. But luckily for Ice Trae, the team around him finally looks ready to do some damage.

2 - Cleveland: I'll be honest, I won't be surprised if the Hawks edge the Cavs for the two seed. But between the shaky health of Porzingis and Jalen Johnson, and the Cavs' continuity, I'm giving Cleveland the edge. I just see a lot of pitfalls from a health perspective here, as I outlined last week. And while Ty Jerome was an imminently replaceable player, his willingness to fill up the box score from the bench alleviated a lot of pressure last year. Lonzo Ball is not that guy. And that's when Ball is healthy.

What will be interesting to see is if the Cavs try to keep minutes for each player in check the way they did last season. Last season, 12 different players averaged between 19 and 31 minutes per game. For that to happen with the roster as currently constructed, that will have to involve players like Thomas Bryant and rookie Tyrese Proctor. One way or another, I think this is going to be a more taxing season for the Cavs.

1 - New York: Just the opposite is true in New York. They are deeper than ever, and if new coach Mike Brown can find the appropriate rhythm with his reserves, it should really help keep the starters fresh for the postseason, which is all the Knicks should need. Two seasons ago, the Knicks limped to the finish line because they were banged up. Last season, they were beaten by a better team, but they also seemed to run out of gas a little. But this season, I believe, is the Knicks' season.

The one question I have is can Jalen Brunson stay healthy. I outlined this in August, so I don't want to rehash, but I really can't see a whole heck of a lot else slowing the Knicks down. You could find the silver lining in just about any other Knicks injury, but not with Brunson. Assuming he does, I have re-thought my prior hard stance on the Malcolm Brogdon acquisition and I am fully bullish on the Knicks this season. How's that for checking my bias?

West Playoffs

• 8 Golden State over 7 Dallas: Can't see Stephen Curry losing to Klay Thompson in a winner take all game.
• 10 Portland over 9 LA Clippers: Out with the old, in with the new.
• 7 Dallas over 10 Portland: Nico Harrison does just enough to save his job.
• 1 Oklahoma City over 8 Dallas: A competitive sweep.
• 2 Houston over 7 Golden State: Houston prepared for this eventuality and won't be denied a second time.
• 3 Denver over 6 LA Lakers: An existential crisis deepens for the Lakers, who just can't seem to hide from the Nuggets.
• 5 Minnesota over 4 San Antonio: Nearly ready for prime time, but Anthony Edwards is just too good for now.

Second Round:

• 1 Oklahoma City over 5 Minnesota: There's no Nickeil Alexander-Walker to cover Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season, and Mike Conley is not even remotely up to the task.
• 2 Houston over 3 Denver: Alperen Şengün, Steven Adams, and Clint Capela have 18 fouls per game to use to beat up Nikola Jokić, and you better believe they're going to use all 18.

Conference Finals:

• 2 Houston over 1 Oklahoma City: It's hard to repeat. Houston has devised a team just as physical as OKC, and this series will be all about Kevin Durant, as he helps rip OKC's heart out again. After this series, Durant will get the shiny re-evaluation of his legacy that he has been chasing ever since he landed in Brooklyn. He's going to lock up Chet Holmgren. Amen Thompson on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be great theater. Thompson has the height, length, and speed to blanket SGA without fouling him. Şengün is going to have Isaiah Hartenstein in the spin cycle. Tari Eason vs. Jalen Williams is going to be awesome. What is Alex Caruso going to do to get around Jabari Smith Jr.? Or challenge Smith's shots? I'm giddy just thinking about how awesome this series would be.

East Playoffs

• 7 Miami over 8 Milwaukee: Tale as old as time.
• 9 Indiana over 10 Charlotte: It'll be nice to see Charlotte in the play-in.
• 9 Indiana over 8 Milwaukee: Giannis' final game with the Bucks could only come at the hand of his hated Pacers.
• 1 New York over 8 Indiana: Third time's the charm.
• 2 Cleveland over 7 Miami: Cleveland is so good at beating Miami!
• 3 Atlanta over 6 Boston: I reserve the right to change my mind about this series if Jayson Tatum is back and looking like himself.
• 4 Detroit over 5 Orlando: You need a point guard to win in the playoffs. Orlando still doesn't have one. No, Tyus Jones doesn't count.

Second Round:

• 1 New York over 4 Detroit: Much like with Indiana, NY will have a budding rivalry with Detroit! The Midwest hating the Knicks? It's like the 1990s all over again!
• 3 Atlanta over 2 Cleveland: Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker lock up Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, while the Hawks hide Trae Young on Max Strus, and the Cavs offense vanishes into thin air once again.

Conference Finals:

• 1 New York over 3 Atlanta: Trae Young hits a buzzer beater in Game 5 in New York to pull the series to 3-2 New York, and does the Ice Trae celly, before the Knicks walk into Atlanta and take care of business in Game 6.

NBA Finals

Just getting here will be enough for Durant to cement his legacy and maybe move up the ranks a little. Bill Simmons has had him in his Pantheon on multiple occasions. But after the last couple of seasons, it's fair to wonder if his hold there was slipping due to lack of team success. Getting back to the NBA Finals – and going through Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokić, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to do so – will cement him there.

Durant aside, I think the Knicks will have just enough of an edge. Karl-Anthony Towns will be able to hang with Durant one on one just like he was in the 2024 playoffs. And after surviving Golden State, Denver, and OKC, how much juice will Houston still have left in the tank? I think Houston is the better team, but that New York will be fresher. It won't be pretty. It'll go the full seven games. But Jalen Brunson with a coach who understands substitution patterns and offensive creativity is going to be like Thanos – opponents are going to need to go for the head. In the end, Brunson will metaphorically be left like Thanos – an axe sticking out of his chest, but victorious nonetheless. Knicks in 7; Jalen Brunson MVP, though not without a vigorous debate about the value of KAT's defense on Durant.