2024-2025 NBA Predictions

It's been a long few months with no NBA basketball. The Olympics were a lot of fun, but are not even remotely the same, especially since the games occurred at odd hours. So I'm very excited for another NBA season.

The Celtics being the favorite is obviously a big part of that, but there are a myriad of storylines I'm eager to see unfold. How the Knicks play together after their two big trades, if LeBron James and Stephen Curry can continue to stave off young up and comers like Victor Wembanyama and the Rockets' conglomerate of young talent, and if Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard can resuscitate their partnership and prove that the Lillard-Jrue Holiday trade wasn't one of the worst NBA trades of the century are just a few of my non-Celtics favorites to watch this season. There are so many more.

Mostly though, I want to see if I've pegged this season correctly. I did pretty well with my predictions last season, and so I'm back to make some more!

Western Conference

15th - Utah: I think Lauri Markannen re-signed with the full understanding that the Jazz are going to tear it down to the studs this season, and hope to build it back up with Cooper Flagg in tow. Danny Ainge has been far too conservative since the Rudy Gobert trade, and I refuse to believe that there aren't tricks up his sleeve.

14th - Portland: Congrats to Chauncey Billups on making the Hall of Fame?

13th - LA Clippers: It's funny, looking at the depth chart, the names all look right, until you realize that it's just a list of guys who were really good five years ago. Even with peak Kawhi Leonard, this wouldn't be a very good team. And they don't have peak Kawhi. At least the new arena seems cool?

12th - New Orleans: I think this is going to be a year from hell. They have no center, so they're going to try to play Herb Jones there. OK! That might work for a game or two, or a few series within a game, but playing a 6'7" guy at center is not a long-term strategy for success. In CJ McCollum, they had a shooting guard masquerading as a point guard. So what did they do? They traded for Dejounte Murray, another shooting guard masquerading as a point guard. There's a very good argument that Trey Murphy III is the third-best player on this team after Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. And Murphy is probably going to come off the bench.

Bottom line – the pieces on this team make no sense, and it also has ZERO rebounding. Last season, they had four players who averaged at least five rebounds per game. Two of them – Jonas Valančiūnas and Larry Nance Jr. – are gone. They were replaced with Daniel Theis, who averaged only 4.1 last year. And he's not going to start? The West is too good for this team to take four months to figure out what trades it wants to make, and adjust in February.

11th - Golden State: Last season, there were too many guys all at the same skill level who didn't really separate themselves enough for Steve Kerr to create a defined rotation. Some guys left, and some guys came in, but the situation didn't really change. The charitable reading would be this team is searching for an identity. The non-charitable reading would be that Steve Kerr has become plagued by indecision and/or is just fucking around, bored after winning so many championship rings.

Either way, the result is that this team team started three different lineups in its first three preseason games, and I think that will be a theme. Only Stephen Curry and Draymond Green started all three. The trios of others were Jonathan Kuminga, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and DeAnthony Melton in the first game, then Kuminga, Kevon Looney, and Brandon Podziemski in the second game, and then Friday it was Moses Moody, Kyle Anderson, and Gary Payton II. Sure. You can chalk it up to preseason and it doesn't matter, but from what I've observed, this is atypical behavior, and that teams really only deviate from their set starting lineups when guys are being held out altogether, and that is not the case for Golden State outside of Melton.

These lineup games magnify the importance of Curry. This team still needs him so badly, but it would be surprising if he was around as much this season. Last season, he played 74 games, which was his best mark in the past seven seasons.

10th - San Antonio: The future begins now. We can't proclaim Victor Wembanyama to be the next MVP candidate if he can't get his team to at least the play-in. The Spurs have a respectable, sensible rotation around him now. The pieces around him may not be star level players, but they make sense, and that order is going to be a big help.

9th - Houston: Few teams have more players that deserve playing time. It will be fascinating to see whose vision wins – Ime Udoka's of playing veterans or the front office's vision of playing young guys. There is a happy medium to maintain, but I don't have much hope in Udoka to figure out the right combos to get them high up in the playoff picture. But after just missing the play-in last season, this will still represent progress.

8th - LA Lakers: They remain who they were last season – a team that can win any game, and a team that can lose any game. I am fascinated to see the effect Gabe Vincent has. Vincent was legitimately terrifying during the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, but last season he was never right. The problem for the Lakers is that the West is just better. I don't think JJ Redick could be much worse than Darvin Ham, because I thought Ham did a legitimately awful job, but the conference will be improved enough that those factors should balance out.

7th - Phoenix: I already mentioned that I am dubious of Curry playing 74 games again. I am even more dubious of Kevin Durant playing 75 games again. In his four seasons since his Achilles injury, Durant played in 35, 55, 47, and 75 regular-season games, respectively. One of those things is not like the other. With Durant, this team can be good, but without him, they're a .500 team at best. I think a lot of people are expecting Tyus Jones to help elevate them, but in contemplating their ranking, I came to the following question – is Jones going to help Phoenix more than DeMar DeRozan helps Sacramento? I find it impossible to answer that question in the affirmative.

6th - Sacramento: Last season, I had Domantis Sabonis on my fantasy team, so I watched a bunch of Kings games. There were at least a half-dozen games that the Kings should have won but didn't because they just did stupid shit down the stretch. As much as Jones is going to organize Phoenix's offense, DeRozan is going to be a salve to the Kings doing stupid shit in the end game. I also believe the Kings can expect boosts from Kevin Huerter getting back on the court, from Keegan Murray continuing to improve, and in a full season of Keon Ellis. There's a lot of reasons to believe the Kings can get to 50 wins for the first time since 2004-2005.

5th - Memphis: Initially, I had them a little higher, but looking at the depth chart, there's still a lot of minutes resting on marginal guys like Santi Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr., Luke Kennard, and John Konchar, and when they get healthy, unproven guys like GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. To say nothing of the fact that they're starting a rookie at center. Zach Edey may come in as a particularly NBA-ready rookie, but he's still a rookie. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart are an excellent foursome, but there just isn't enough talent behind them for me to put them higher than fifth.

4th - Minnesota: I don't have much to say that I didn't say in the trade piece other than I'm eager to see Edwards step up (or not) and take control now that the team in unquestionably his.

3rd - Denver: I was tempted to drop them even further, but I think Nikola Jokić is good enough to keep them here. The question will be if coach Michael Malone will play Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson enough that they can be trusted in the playoffs, or if he'll just lean on Russell Westbrook and Dario Šarić.

I'm not optimistic about him playing the young guys, and if Denver is bounced before the conference finals again, the team may have a new head coach next season.

2nd - Dallas: As I mentioned a couple of months ago, I don't necessarily think the Mavericks are better than they were last year, but I do think Minnesota and Denver took small steps back, leaving Dallas in clear possession of the two seed.

1st - Oklahoma City: I think the rest of the NBA needs to prepare for just what a juggernaut this team could be. They have managed their cap really well, they have a treasure trove of draft picks, and oh, they have an MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and two other potential top-30 players in Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. This season, with Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso, the pieces mostly fit.

The only question I still have is whether coach Mark Daigneault can cure himself of his Lu Dort obsession. Dort may be a tough defender, but he is an extreme liability at the end of games. Their closing lineup should very clearly be SGA, Caruso, Williams, Holmgren, and Hartenstein, but that would be a big shift for Daigneault. Much like the C's did with Smart, the front office may need to fix this one for him with a trade. Certainly, with Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, and Jaylin Williams, the Thunder have solid enough bench depth to absorb the loss of Dort in a way they couldn't in years past.

Eastern Conference

15th - Brooklyn: I expect every player with any trade value to be traded. I think they're racing to the bottom in a way that should be shameless, but no one really has ever cared about this team, and so I doubt there will be much fuss made about them.

14th - Washington: The worst may be over, as the team has a direction now, but that isn't going to help them in the 2024-2025 season.

13rd - Detroit: I no longer believe in the Pistons. I didn't like their choice for their new coach, and their moves in the draft, in trades, and in free agency didn't inspire much confidence either.

12th - Chicago: I don't feel very good about this pick. There are respectable NBA players here, and I am rooting for Lonzo Ball in a big, big way. But the problem for Ball is that when he left the lineup, he was unquestionably the starting point guard and lead ballhandler. Now, he's got to share the ball with Coby White and Josh Giddey, to say nothing of Ayo Dosunmu. All four of these guys are playing for new contracts, and as such, all four are going to want the ball. And it's not like Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević are strangers to inexplicably hogging the ball once they get it. I don't think it's going to take much to throw off the vibes on this team.

11th - Charlotte: I believe in Charles Lee to make this team better. I don't know how far they can go with LaMelo Ball heavily involved in the proceedings, but perhaps the Hornets can build up his trade value this season and move him.

10th - Toronto: Like San Antonio, I think Toronto's pieces all make sense around their best player, Scottie Barnes. Unlike San Antonio, I don't think Barnes' ceiling is high enough for them to ever really be much better than this with him as their best player.

9th - Atlanta: I remain high on the fit between Trae Young and Dyson Daniels in the backcourt, and full seasons from Young and Jalen Johnson should be enough to keep them above the dregs of the conference.

8th - Cleveland: I just don't think a new coach can make this team fit. I think a fall is coming. The Cavs managed to put together hollow 51- and 48-win seasons the past two seasons, but they were ultimately fraudulent, and I think good health for their four best players may actually be counterproductive. They were better in those two seasons when a couple of the guys were out of the lineup, and the remaining players didn't have to share the ball as much. Not only that, but the East is much better.

The team is also perilously thin. This is a team that gave solid playoff minutes last season to Marcus Morris, who showed up in March. And he's not even back this season. Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade, Sam Merrill, Georges Niang – these guys have proven that they can't be counted on to play solid two-way basketball in crunch time. Caris LeVert can sometimes, but sometimes he can't, and you can never really tell when he's going to have it and when he isn't. And "All-Star" Darius Garland has so few tricks in his bag that when it really mattered, old man Al Horford sent his shots right back. I am selling Cleveland pretty hard. (Sorry, Cam.)

7th - Orlando: As I've thought more about this team, my opinion has changed on them quite a bit. A lot of the hope for this team is going to come down to whether Anthony Black can be an NBA point guard. That is, if he's given the chance. If I was a Magic fan, I would sure hope he is. Because otherwise, this team is a case study in whether passing matters. Last season, the Magic ranked 27th in the NBA in assists. And from that team they lost Joe Ingles and Markelle Fultz, who ranked third and fifth on the team in assists. The replacement for them appears to be Black.

One thing I am pretty sure of is that Jalen Suggs is not a point guard. Last season, Suggs was just one of 14 players to play more than 2,000 minutes, dish out fewer than 225 assists, and commit more than 100 turnovers. Six of the other 13 guys were centers. None were point guards. Orlando had a bad offense last season, and the improvement is going to have to be internal. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope may be a more consistent floor spacer, but really he's just going to be eating minutes from guys who shot threes well last season. Joe Ingles (.435), Black (.394), and Gary Harris (.371) all shot threes well last season. You could argue that KCP is going to earn more respect, and that will help the spacing, but I think the effect is going to be pretty marginal.

One theme to note with this grouping of East teams is to not fall in love with where the teams ranked last season. Third through eighth place was separated by only three wins, and the order came down to the final game of the season. Orlando finishing fifth last year means relatively little for their prognosis this season. They can be just as good or better and still finish right here in seventh. The difference between fifth and sixth was tiebreakers, and the difference between fifth and seventh was one win. And while their defense is going to be excellent, I just don't have any faith in Orlando's offense to pull out close games.

6th - Milwaukee: I just don't believe in this team any longer. As I said in my most intriguing players piece, I don't think Gary Trent Jr. will do any better than Malik Beasley did last season. I don't believe in Khris Middleton's ability to stay in the lineup, and Brook Lopez quietly regressed last season.

After averaging 15.9 points per game and 6.7 rebounds per game in 2022-23, Lopez dropped to 12.5 and 5.2 last season. But what I find most interesting is that he spent a lot more time hanging out at the three-point line. His percentage of shots at the rim (0-3 feet) dropped from 28.1% to 24.8%, his percentage of shots in the paint (3-10 feet) dropped from 17% to 12%, and his percentage of shots that were threes increased from 40.5% to 53.5%. Lopez is a good three-point shooter, but far from elite, and these drops signal a guy who is conserving his energy, and frankly, the Bucks need more out of him than that.

Beyond that, it can't be encouraging knowing that the Bucks' most important item on their offseason to-do list was to develop better chemistry between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, and yet they apparently didn't work out together all summer. Even with the Olympics happening, I don't understand how that is even possible, and it doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. The duo is good enough to keep them out of the play-in, but I can't get them any higher.

5th - Miami: A locked-in Jimmy Butler is all they need to improve by a couple of games. And let me just show you one thing from the NBA Contracts page that should keep Butler on his bullshit this season:

If you don't feel like doing the math, the difference is $11,001. It is no secret that Miami has lusted after Giannis. If Milwaukee's season starts poorly, and Giannis starts getting antsy, and Butler is still pissing off Pat Riley, would you really put it past Riley to pull off a swap of these two guys (with extra assets attached to sweeten the pot for Milwaukee)? Since Butler went to Marquette, Milwaukee could sell it as Butler's homecoming, and because Butler has two fewer years on his contract (three if he opts out this summer) than Giannis, they could hasten a rebuild by doing this. Butler would be exiled to a losing situation, and Riley would get the big splash he's not made in a couple of years.

Do I believe this scenario will come to pass? No. Am I terrified of it coming to pass? Yes. Yes, I am. Do I believe Riley is diabolical enough to threaten Butler with scenarios like this? Yes. Yes, I do. I think Butler is going to suit up for 70 games for the first time since 2016-2017. I also think that Tyler Herro will suit up for more than 40 games, and that a full season of Terry Rozier will help. If Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jović improve (and stay healthy - Jović only played 46 games last season himself) that wi collectively be enough for Miami to pick up the few stray wins they are going to need to stay out of the play-in.

4th - Philadelphia: As I mentioned in the intriguing players piece, I think seven new guys is a lot of new guys to work into the lineup. I think it'll take Philly a little while to get their chemistry right, and that process will be complicated by Joel Embiid's annual 15-30 games out of the lineup.

It's also not helped by the fact that this remains a deeply unserious team. I get that back to backs are not fun, but them sitting every veteran they have in last night's preseason game shows me nothing has changed in Philly. Instead of coming out and trying to make a statement with their new "big three" – even for a quarter or two – they just ducked the smoke altogether. Par for the course.

3rd - Indiana: As I've said before, I really believe in this Indiana team. The result of Boston's sweep in the conference finals obscured how tough that series was. Indiana really had won Game 1 before Boston snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, the C's needed a furious comeback and an incredibly clutch steal to take Game 3, and Game 4 came down to the final couple of possessions. Indiana's offense is relentless, and their defense improved as the season wore on. Before the All-Star break, they allowed 122.3 points per game. After the break, they allowed 115.8. A full season of Pascal Siakam and a healthier Benedict Mathurin is going to be a big boost for them, as is the increased role and trust in Andrew Nembhard.

Few players grew as much between the regular season and playoffs than did Nembhard. In the regular season, Nembhard averaged 25.0 minutes, 9.2 points, and 4.1 assists per game. In the playoffs, he averaged 32.6 minutes, 14.9 points, and 5.5 assists per game. With Tyrese Haliburton, Nembhard, and TJ McConnell, the Pacers can push the pace and run an efficient offense for all 48 minutes of the game. There is no let up, and I think that really clicked for them in the playoffs. I don't want to say the Celtics were lucky to survive them – Boston was and is the better team – but Indiana is formidable. I expect big things from them this season.

2nd - New York: Again, I don't have much to offer that I didn't offer in my last piece other than I'm eager to see Jalen Brunson step up (or not) and take control now that the team in unquestionably his. It pretty much was in the playoffs with Julius Randle out, but the promise of Randle being back this season had thrown that into question. Until the trade, that is.

1st - Boston: Sometimes, the consensus opinion is the correct one. I don't think there will be much drop off in play, even without Kristaps Porzingis. I also want to add that if Jayson Tatum (or Jaylen Brown) is ever going to make a real MVP push, leading the team to ~30-5 record to start the season while Porzingis is on the shelf would really help bolster their case. The media already seems to have their mind made up that Tatum is a long shot, and no one even mentions Brown, but if the dominance continues, it can only be ignored for so long. Especially in a revamped Eastern Conference.

One thing that is very apparent to me is just how connected this team is. In the first half of these three preseason games, everyone in the top eight-nine guys in the rotation is finding each other on thread-the-needle passes that a year or two ago they simply would have not attempted. There appears to be no letdown, they look like they picked up right where they left off in June.

The other thing that is clear to me is just how deep they are. Luke Kornet looks ready to start. With full health, he's the third-string center. Xavier Tillman now looks very comfortable shooting threes. He's the fourth-string center. JD Davison would get quality minutes on other NBA teams – he now runs the point with an authority he didn't in years past, and can still jump out of the gym. On this team, he's fourth in line for point guard minutes, which means he won't see the floor hardly ever. Jordan Walsh looks like he's cured the hitch in his jump shot. There is no place for him on this team. Baylor Scheierman looks like he has the same quick release that Sam Hauser does. There probably is no place for him on this team. Lonnie Walker IV is a dynamic player who has averaged 11.2 points per game in the NBA over the past four seasons. He's not even assured a roster spot. This Celtics team is D-E-E-P in a way I haven't seen in a long time, and they appear super hungry for another championship.

West Playoffs

• 7 Phoenix over 10 San Antonio: Wemby gets a night to shine, but Durant turns the clock back for one more great performance.
• 8 LA Lakers over 9 Houston: Dillon Brooks gets the matchup he always wants, but unfortunately he'll still be Dillon Brooks.
• 1 Oklahoma City over 8 LA Lakers: This is a bad matchup for LeBron and AD, because OKC likes to run, and LA wants to keep it slow. Also, OKC is just a lot better.
• 2 Dallas over 7 Phoenix: Durant can win a single game, but he's past the point where he can dominate a best of seven, and we already know Luka Dončić isn't afraid of Phoenix.
• 3 Denver over 6 Sacramento: I think this would go deep, and Denver would just barely escape.
• 4 Minnesota over 5 Memphis: Initially, I had Memphis winning out, but I think Edwards would carry the day. Please, please, please give us this series – I want to watch Marcus on Edwards for seven games. Just hook it to my veins.

Second Round:

• 1 Oklahoma City over 4 Minnesota: SGA vs. Edwards? Rudy vs. Hartenstein? Holmgren vs. Naz? Jalen Williams vs. Randle? What a delicious series.
• 2 Dallas over 3 Denver: Would Luka and Nikola kiss at half court before each game like Magic and Isiah?

Conference Finals:

• 1 Oklahoma City over 2 Dallas: This has the chance to be a really heated, really long-term rivalry.

East Playoffs

• 7 Orlando over 10 Toronto: This would be an ugly game.
• 9 Atlanta over 8 Cleveland: This game has 40-point Ice Trae Young special written all over it, with Donovan Mitchell trying and failing to match him.
• 1 Boston over 8 Atlanta: This time, with no blown fourth quarter 14-point leads.
• 2 New York over 7 Orlando: Orlando will try to make this a rock fight a la '90s Knicks v. Heat battles, but the Knicks have just too much firepower now.
• 3 Indiana over 6 Milwaukee: Indy beating Milwaukee with Giannis and Dame on the court will give their victory last season more heft.
• 4 Philadelphia over 5 Miami: I am super, super tempted to say Miami would win this series, and would not even be remotely surprised if it happened.

Second Round

• 1 Boston over 4 Philadelphia: Maybe someday Joel Embiid will make the Conference Finals, but if he wants it to be this year, he better try like hell to be the 2 or 3 (or 6 or 7) seed.
• 2 New York over 3 Indiana: I think this would go seven games again, but this time Brunson (hopefully) won't break his hand.

Conference Finals

• 1 Boston over 2 New York: Getting here will be a huge achievement for the Knicks. They haven't reached the conference finals since they made the NBA Finals in 1999. People will be super primed for a long series. And after the Knicks take Game 2 in Boston, emotions and tension will be very high. And then the C's will win the next three.

NBA Finals

Oklahoma City never really deserved a team. The Seattle Supersonics were stolen, and I believe the karma of that theft is such that OKC will not win a championship until a franchise is once again awarded to Seattle, and OKC agrees to transfer the official history of the Sonics back to the expansion franchise. I thought that would have happened already, but ironically, one of the two big stumbling blocks preventing it right now is the sale of the Celtics (the other is the resolution of the lawsuit the inept Warner Bros. Discovery filed after the NBA left them out of the new media deal). On the court, the Celtics will provide more concrete resistance.

You could make the argument that SGA is good enough to beat Jrue Holiday consistently over a full series. After all, Jrue is 34 now, and SGA is only 26. You could make the argument that Chet Holmgren is good enough to beat Kristaps Porzingis over a full series. Especially since there's no guarantee that Porzingis plays a full NBA Finals series. But as good as Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, and Alex Caruso are, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are just better. Both look ready to take the league and Hulk smash it into the ground. Like so:

In last season's Finals, everyone was waiting for Luka to steal a game all by himself. It never happened for him, but I think SGA will pull one rabbit out of his hat. So...Celtics in 6. And this time, Tatum gets his MVP, as the media will have a tailor made "first repeat champs since 2017-2018" story line and won't need to invent a Jaylen vs. Jayson story line to draw eyeballs.