2023-2024 NBA Season Predictions

I love predictions. Being right is of course majestic. I still remember predicting that the Florida Marlins would win the 1997 World Series at the beginning of that season, and how the friends who I actually told about this were impressed when that actually happened. But being wrong is also really great! I know that sounds corny to say, but the best part of sports is all the surprising things that happen along the way. This is why few people root for a dynasty.

Luckily, this NBA season is completely up for grabs. The new salary cap rules are completely onerous from a long-term team building perspective (unless your team's owner just wants to spend a ton of money on salary cap/luxury tax/apron penalties), but the early returns are that it means a lot more teams are "going for it."

I'm going to break things up by conference, and go in reverse order. We'll do the West first.

Western Conference

15th - Portland: I don't think they necessarily have less talent than San Antonio at the moment, but I think they will by the trade deadline.

14th - San Antonio: I'd love for this to be wrong because Victor Wembanyama is so good he makes them a .500 team immediately. But I think that'll wait until year two.

13th - Utah: I think Danny Ainge threw everyone off the scent last year by being competitive. I think the clear reason for that was that Utah hosted the All-Star Game, and they did everything they could to make sure they had an All-Star in that game. I sincerely doubt Lauri Markkanen finishes the season on this team. He's a great asset for a contender (he only makes $17M this season, and just $18M next season!), and Ainge is smart enough to know that Markkanen isn't good enough to be the No. 1 guy on a championship team. He won't want to give him a max extension, and that makes him tasty, tasty trade bait.

12th - Dallas: Before you get to the problem of their two best players being whiny losers who play the same position, there's just not enough talent around them. Grant Williams is great as a 7th/8th man who makes occasional spot starts (he's never started more than 23 games in a single season). He can only be a starter who's expected to be a team leader on a bad team. And I say that as a Grant Williams defender, who didn't want the C's to let him go!

11th - Houston: I'm intrigued, and want to bump them into the play in. Next season for sure.

10th - Play-In - LA Clippers: A lot of people can't quit this team. I quit them a couple of seasons ago. I don't think acquiring James Harden will save them either.

9th - New Orleans: I do want to believe in the Pelicans. And it's nice to see Zion Williamson healthy. I just don't think it'll last, and the team around him isn't exactly a pillar of health either. Larry Nance Jr. is again battling injury problems, and Trey Murphy III is out for at least the first month after surgery. Brandon Ingram has only hit the relatively low threshold of 65 games played in a single season once in seven tries, and it was his rookie season. I want to believe, but I can't commit to it, mainly because I have fewer questions about the teams ahead of them.

8th - Memphis: Marcus Smart deserves better. Two centers out for the season already, and the team's star out for the first 25 games (at least). This could be Marcus' first sub-.500 team since his rookie 2014-2015 season. I will be rooting for them to be better, but the deck is stacked against them already.

7th - Minnesota: I'm seeing a lot of top six buzz for the T'Wolves. I can see it, but I am giving that shine to Oklahoma City, who I think make a lot more sense on paper. It's just hard to get around the fact that three of this team's seven best players are most effective as centers. I also don't believe in the purported leap we're about to see from Anthony Edwards. He needs to solve his outside shot. He did have a great World Cup, but shot just 2-for-8 from three in the pivotal loss to Germany.

It wasn't just that one game. In 2021-2022, he took five percent of his shots from 16 ft. - 3 pt. range, generally thought of as the least efficient shot you can take. He shot .359 on those shots. Last season, he increased to taking 10% of his shots from that area of the floor, not a good trend, and hit fewer of them, just .350. Also not good.

This is one of the biggest reasons his eFG% and TS% didn't really improve last season. This is important because he shoots more than just about everybody. Last season, only two players took more than 1,500 shots: Edwards and Jayson Tatum. But while Jayson Tatum's true-shooting percentage was .607 (59th overall, and definitely something he needs to improve upon), Edwards' was just .564, which ranked 140th, behind guys like Aaron Nesmith (shout out to him for his new contract!), Kevin Porter Jr., and Saddiq Bey.

That doesn't sound like the No. 1 guy on a legit contender, and until Edwards becomes more efficient, I'm not seeing Minnesota as contenders. This season, at least, he'll have professional point guard Mike Conley on his team all season. So we'll see.

6th - Full Playoffs - Golden State: They'll care about the regular season just long enough to avoid the play-in and set up the first-round matchup we all want to see.

5th - Oklahoma City: I really like this team, and will probably write more about them at some point. For now, just know that I think their presumptive starting five of Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Luguentz Dort is among the best in the league. I think Holmgren will be good right away, and the Williams of the second half is real.

4th - Sacramento: There have been divergent opinions on Sacramento, but I am a believer. Dropping from third to fourth is not a slight on them, as you'll see in a minute.

3rd - Phoenix: This is the prediction that worries me the most – they could slip to 5th or 6th because of health. I have them here because I think they have enough offensive talent to survive Kevin Durant's annual 30-game absence, and that Frank Vogel will figure out who can play good enough defense to get them home court in the playoffs.

2nd - LA Lakers: I hate being bullish about the Lakers, but they not only look really good at the moment, but are poised to add talent throughout the season, because they retained juuust enough draft capital, and they have tradeable contracts. Ugh.

1st - Denver: Do I think this is going to be a potential dynasty? No, because I still remember how great the 2008-2009 Celtics were, right up until Kevin Garnett blew out his knee. And Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. both are candidates for the same kind of cataclysmic injury event. But they're going to be rolling right along if that doesn't happen, and while their young guys aren't as good as Bruce Brown Jr., Nikola Jokic is going to put those guys in position to succeed. At least in the regular season.

Eastern Conference

15th - Charlotte: I think the Hornets are going to be terrible, and they deserve to be so for not extricating themselves from Miles Bridges, which they had every opportunity to do. There just isn't very much talent or professionalism on this team, and I think this will be the year people realize that LaMelo Ball puts up numbers not because he's great but because there's just not a lot of other guys on this team capable of doing so.

14th - Washington: They're not hiding that they're trying to be bad, but in Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford, and Tyus Jones, they have the talent and professionalism necessary to avoid the basement, to say nothing of Deni Avdija, Delon Wright, Danilo Gallinari, and a few others. Bilal Coulibaly is intriguing as well. A lot of people are picking them to be the worst team. I don't see it. Not that 14th is much better.

13th - Chicago: I think this is the year they burn it all down. It's a seemingly small distinction, but last season there was at least a glimmer of hope that Lonzo Ball would play. They know going into this season that he won't. The dream of what this team could be with him might have worked long-term, and remains defensible. Without him though, they have perhaps the worst point guard group in the NBA, and the offense grinds to a halt without his vision. I am confident DeMar DeRozan ends the season on a different team, and one of Zach LaVine/Nikola Vucevic as well.

12th - Detroit: I am still very, very bullish on the Pistons, and if things go well, they will do a lot better than 12th in the conference. But I think they probably need a season to not only sort out who is and isn't a part of the future of this team around Cade Cunningham, but also a year to adjust to Monty Williams as their coach. So I'm trying to be rational with having them 12th. But of the five teams outside the play-in, I'm most bullish on Detroit's 2024-2025 season and beyond.

11th - Brooklyn: Mikal Bridges was cast as one of the main players in the FIBA World Cup. The team didn't sniff gold. He's a great No. 2, but he's not a No. 1 player. There's too much talent here to be terrible, but there's not enough to make any real noise.

10th - Play-In - Toronto: Will this be the season people finally get impatient with Masai Ujiri? Only time will tell, but until they shake something up, I don't see them making any real noise, and I don't see them making much noise in this particular season even if they do. Lots of people are saying the team will trade Pascal Siakam, but those people also spent all of last season telling us they'd trade Fred VanVleet and/or OG Anunoby.

9th - Orlando: I debated having them a little higher, but I think this fits. Last season, ninth place in the East was 41 wins, and 42 in the West. Orlando won 34. Getting to ninth place will represent a solid and achievable improvement. And given that they were better than .500 after their 5-20 start, I think it's also an expected improvement. The real question will be how much better can they get in the following seasons.

8th - Indiana: Ultimately, I think this team's ceiling is capped until they get rid of Rick Carlisle. Carlisle generally gets very preferential treatment in the media because he was a member of the '86 Celtics and he won an NBA championship. Do you know how many playoff series Rick Carlisle has won since Dirk Nowitzki carried him to the 2011 NBA championship? ZERO. His teams have reached the postseason in six of his 12 seasons since (not a great rate in and of itself) and haven't won a single series. His 10-24 record in those series also illustrates how his teams weren't exactly close, either. He also clashes with respected veterans, most famously with Rajon Rondo. Buddy Hield appears to be the latest, though the team is being careful to not characterize it like that.

It also bears repeating Tyrese Haliburton sucks at on-ball defense, and if your best player sucks at on-ball defense that's not a great sign for your team's outlook. As a reminder, this was the moment when it became clear that the US was not beating Germany at the FIBA World Cup:

Four guys guarding their man, and Haliburton on the ground, giving his guy – who had been hitting threes all game – the most open shot of his life. You too can see this pic if you just Google "Tyrese Haliburton sliding."

7th - Philadelphia: I don't think we're quite appreciating how combustible this Sixers team is. Beyond the James Harden situation, which could single-handedly torpedo their season, this braintrust saw fit to add two all-swagger-no-substance players in Patrick Beverley and Kelly Oubre, Jr. Both of those guys have a long history of being the only person in the arena to believe they are the best player on the court. And new coach Nick Nurse is, let's be charitable and say confrontational. All of this around a star in Joel Embiid who turtles at the first sign of real pressure. There are a lot more ways this Sixers season can go poorly than it can go well.

6th - Full Playoffs - Atlanta: I am swayed by those who think Quin Snyder will figure out how to make this team successful as much as I am by believing the exact opposite about Nick Nurse. I can't see Atlanta being much better than this because I think the team has redundant talent at a couple of positions, and too many flaws to paper over, but after finishing in ninth and eighth place the past two seasons, sixth will count as a major improvement.

5th - Miami: Yes, the Heat generally don't go all out in the regular season. Yes, their backup point guard is a guy they just signed to a deal out of the G League. Yes, Jimmy Butler is probably going to take off a lot of games. But they also only had six guys play 60+ games last season, and I think they'll end up being more consistent this season. I also think there will be a big gap in wins between fourth place and the rest of the conference, and that Miami will eke out enough wins to stay in front of that pack.

4th - Cleveland: Just like Donovan Mitchell's Jazz teams, this Cleveland team can only be so good. The common denominator is obviously Mitchell. I also don't think Max Strus or Georges Niang does enough to fix their offense, and because they're already really short on draft picks, it'll be difficult for them to make any substantial in-season upgrade. This is the least interesting good team to me.

3rd - New York: The jury is out on whether Tom Thibodeau can ever coach a team back to the Conference Finals (he hasn't been since 2010-11), but I think this team is very, very deep, and will win a lot of regular-season games.

2nd - Milwaukee: So much in the playoffs will hinge on the health of Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez, but in the regular season, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard will carry them.

1st - Boston: My mantra at this time is "I know I said they'd win it all the past couple of years, but there was a part of me that didn't truly believe that. I do now." And I do. I think this team is going to be a wrecking ball. They have three of the best 25 players in the league, and conservatively, five of the best 75. This team is deep, talented, and hungry. I know I said it before, but I really do have belief in this entire roster in a way that I never have before. And throughout all 48 minutes, they will have at least two guys who can create shots for both themselves and others on the floor. I haven't been this excited for an NBA season since 2007.

West Playoffs

• 7 Minnesota over 10 LA Clippers
• 8 Memphis over 9 New Orleans
• 1 Denver over 8 Memphis
• 2 LA Lakers over 7 Minnesota
• 6 Golden State over 3 Phoenix. That's right, I think Durant's "super team" goes home early.
• 4 Sacramento over 5 Oklahoma City. Bitter pill for OKC, but they'll just keep rising. And I think after this defeat, they'll finally accelerate their timetable and make moves to become legit contenders.

Second Round:

• 4 Sacramento over 1 Denver. Upset time! If there's one thing that Jokic doesn't like, it's running. Sacramento will run just enough to pull this off.
• 2 LA Lakers over 6 Golden State. Repeat of last season. This Golden State team just isn't a good matchup for the Lakers, who bully balled them out of the playoffs last season. And Golden State then got smaller. Chris Paul will also predictably get hurt at the worst possible time for his team.

Conference Finals:

• 2 LA Lakers over 4 Sacramento. Last season, the Lakers were deep, but the depth had not played together long enough to survive a war of attrition. Plus, they'll be able to cruise to the Conference Finals without playing Denver or Phoenix. It'll be all set up for LeBron James to win his fifth ring.

East Playoffs

• 10 Toronto over 7 Philadelphia: Joel Embiid takes his ball and goes home.
• 9 Orlando over 8 Indiana
• 8 Indiana over 10 Toronto (I think that's how that works)
• 1 Boston over 8 Orlando. It'll be tougher than it should be though.
• 2 Milwaukee over 7 Indiana
• 3 New York over 6 Atlanta. No "Ice Trae" with Jalen Brunson around.
• 5 Miami over 4 Cleveland. The Cavs will end up trading Donovan Mitchell in the offseason, having won absolutely nothing with him in two seasons.

Second Round

• 1 Boston over 5 Miami. Revenge comes a round earlier than usual.
• 2 Milwaukee over 3 New York. The bruising Knicks will beat the crap out of them though.

Conference Finals

• 1 Boston over 2 Milwaukee. Defense matters.

NBA Finals

You know who's never been afraid of LeBron James? Jayson Tatum:

Hold on, let's watch the whole clip:

In his very first taste of the NBA playoffs, Jayson Tatum went toe to toe with the greatest player since Michael Jordan in Game 7 of a Conference Finals, and not just on that play. He scored 24 of Boston's 79 points on efficient 9-for-17 shooting, and pulled down seven rebounds. If starters Jaylen Brown (5-for-18) and Terry Rozier (2-for-14) and reserves Marcus Morris (5-for-14) and Marcus Smart (1-for-10) each hit just one more shot, the C's probably go to the Finals that season.

Fast forward six seasons, and it will come down to LeBron vs. Tatum again, and this time, Tatum will prevail. Anthony Davis doesn't need much motivation to stop shooting, and Austin Reaves isn't getting quality shots off over Jrue Holiday or Derrick White.

LeBron James has only been swept three times in 20 seasons, and he'll be good enough for one classic, big LeBron game. Probably Game 3, with a bit of rest and the home crowd at his back. But while this Celtics team will be tested and pushed to its limits throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, by the time they get to the NBA Finals, they're going to run amok. Similar to the 2004 Red Sox, except without 86 years of baggage. Celtics in five. NBA Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum